So, fertilizer continues to run – and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is just going to compound things (as is evidenced by the current run on WEAT and CORN).
In addition to MOS, NTR, and CF – CVR Partners (confusingly: $UAN – I’ll use “$UAN” to distinguish it as the stock rather than the fertilizer) is a really interesting play in this space. It’s much smaller than the others, and it’s also structured as a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) which has some interesting tax implications… not the least of which is: if you buy $UAN in a tax-advantaged account (e.g. IRA, 401k, etc), you’ll owe taxes on its distributions (which are distinct from dividends).
Anyhow, the pattern for $UAN has been to basically remain pinned below a certain strike price before each earnings and distribution payout, and then rocketing upwards after expiry to catch/surpass the performance of the other fertilizer names. The current pin price seems to be $110 for March 18. There’s a lot more research that I need to do personally, but this is a good starting place: CVR Partners Stock: The Perfect Storm, Massive Earnings Are Imminent (NYSE:UAN) | Seeking Alpha – this guy lays out a pretty solid case for seeing $UAN nearing $500 towards the end of the year… and this was before the Russia/Ukraine situation ignited. It sounds ridiculous seeing as how the price is below $110 right now, but the fertilizer market was already beginning to experience a perfect storm – and this crisis is only adding to it.
Personally I added a bunch of shares today at $107, and will continue to add as long as its below $110.