It appears that China is arming Serbia: China makes semi-secret delivery of missiles to Serbia | AP News
There are fears in the West that the arming of Serbia by Russia and China could encourage the Balkan country toward another war, especially against its former province of Kosovo that proclaimed independence in 2008. Serbia, Russia and China don’t recognize Kosovo’s statehood, while the United States and most Western countries do.
Taiwan issued its first war handbook advising citizens how to respond in the wake of an attack, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises fears of a Chinese incursion at home.
China conducting military drills around Taiwan. Not sure what this 2nd line in the tweet means.
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1514884488534368260?s=21&t=5KoOFdR_idsKiOls5xZq6w
Adding onto this development over this weekend… here is a South China Morning Post article. There is also a similar CNBC article.
I got through the SCMP paywall. Here’s what it says, with my bolding for what I think are more interesting texts:
Beijing has warned the US against playing with fire over Taiwan, calling the latest visit by Congress delegates to the self-ruled island a deliberate provocation that disregarded strong opposition from mainland China.
The warning came after a six-member group of high-profile US lawmakers – five senators and a House representative – made an unannounced trip to Taiwan to express both bipartisan and the White House’s support for the island in the event of an attack from the People’s Liberation Army.
“Taiwan is an inseparable part of the territory of China and any intervention by any outside [force] is intolerable,” Beijing’s defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said in a statement on Friday.
Labelling the group’s visit “sneaky and scuttling”, Wu said it “seriously violated the one-China principle and the three joint communiques” underscoring US-China relations. It also seriously damaged the political trust basis between the two sides, sent a wrong signal to separatist forces in Taiwan, and further escalated cross-strait tensions, he added.
As the US lawmakers visited Taiwan, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command on Friday launched extensive naval and air exercises around the island, involving frigates, bombers and fighter jets. Beijing said the staging of the war games aimed to highlight its warnings to both the US and Taiwan against what it sees as attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Wu said the joint drills and patrols were “necessary action” to uphold the sovereignty of China in response to the recent situation in the strait.
Beijing’s foreign ministry, for its part, called the PLA exercises a “counteraction” against the US sending a string of congressmen and politicians to Taiwan in recent times.
In a statement, ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the operation was in response to the frequent release of wrong signals by the US on the Taiwan issue, warning “those playing with fire will burn themselves”.
Taiwan has long been a source of tension between Washington and Beijing, which sees the democratically run island as a breakaway province that must be brought under control, by force if necessary.
Beijing has been increasingly provoked by Washington’s strong support for Taiwan, which has become “rock solid” after President Joe Biden took office in January last year and soon sent senior retired officials to visit Taipei in what the White House called a “personal signal” of support.
However, despite the furious response and trading of barbs, there was no sign of a potential US-Beijing conflict or the eruption of a cross-strait war, according to observers.
Underlining US support for Taiwan, the visiting bipartisan group said they were confident America would come to its aid in the event of an attack from mainland China.
Led by Bob Menendez, the Democrat who chairs the Senate’s foreign relations committee, and Republican Lindsey Graham, the six-member group met President Tsai Ing-wen in her office on Friday.
“If you ask what would America do if the Chinese Communist Party becomes more provocative against Taiwan, I am convinced we would stand for what we love and we would stand with you,” Graham told Tsai.
“To abandon Taiwan would be to abandon democracy and freedom. It would be to abandon free trade. It would reward the worst of humanity. We are here today to show our support for Taiwan.”
Menendez said the group’s presence in Taiwan at a time when the world was focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent “a powerful message” to the Taiwanese people. “We understand that here in Taiwan, here in this region, this is where the future is.”
He also said the Chinese Communist government had expressed its unhappiness to the delegation ahead of its trip.
“With Taiwan producing 90 per cent of the world’s high-end semiconductor products, it is a country of global significance, of global consequence, of global impact. And therefore, it should be understood that the security of Taiwan has a global impact,” Menendez said.
Republican senators Richard Burr, Ben Sasse and Rob Portman, and congressman Ronny Jackson, who is also a Republican, were the other members of the group.
Tsai is observing seven days of self-health management after completing two weeks of home quarantine on Thursday. The Presidential Office said she was fit to meet the visitors in line with the precautionary measures.
Tsai came into contact with a Covid-19 case during a family meal. She later tested negative and remains in good health, according to the office.
In a brief press conference later, Menendez said a draft bill he co-sponsored in February to rename Taipei’s de facto embassy in Washington as the Taiwan Representative Office had seen some progress.
“There is legislation moving in Congress,” he said.
The renaming move sharply angered Beijing because, as its own territory, it does not see Taiwan as entitled to full representation.
Asked what the US would do if Beijing attacked Taiwan, Graham said: “To the Chinese Communist Party the answer the average Americans will have is why [do] you want to do this? The last century taught us, when good people give in to evil, you live with regret. If the American people abandon Taiwan, it would change the world fundamentally for the worst. Who would be our ally in the future?”
“To the Chinese Communist Party, we do not seek conflict, but we would fight for our values. Choose wisely,” Graham said, adding the group’s visit was “not to change the one-China policy, and we are here to say we stand with a friend in Taiwan”.
On the possibility of Taiwan becoming a part of the Indo-Pacific economic framework, Portman said he believed it was more important for Taiwan to be able to negotiate and reach a free-trade agreement with the US.
“That would deepen our bilateral economic ties,” he said, such a pact would also reflect the US’ strong support for Taiwan and could also “act as a deterrence to any military activity China might be considering”.
The group arrived in Taipei on a US government plane on Thursday night, the latest in a string of such visits to Taiwan by US lawmakers to reassure the island of American support following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
There has been speculation that Beijing might seize the chance of the Ukraine war to launch an attack on Taiwan while the US was busy dealing with the conflict in Europe.
They met Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng before leaving Taiwan for Japan later on Friday.
The delegation had earlier been in Australia, where Menendez and Graham told Sky News Australia that the Senate foreign relations committee was pushing for a greater US military presence in the country.
Congressional delegations met senior Taipei officials, including Tsai, during two separate visits last November.
Last month, US President Joe Biden sent a delegation of former senior defence and security officials to reassure Taipei of US support as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightened concerns about a similar cross-strait move by mainland China.
From a technicals standpoint, EWT appears to have broken a critical $60.00 support, and just saw $60.00 support turn into resistance. Let’s see next week if EWT confirms a downtrend and possible gap down to $57.00
Below is a screenshot with daily candles where we can see how in 2021, $60 was a major support and resistance line.
Zooming into recent days on 30m candles, we see that EWT has broken its previous March low. For comparison, SPY’s March low was 415 and we are not at that level yet.
In addition, $60.00 became resistance.
Meanwhile, barchart is indicating extreme put/call ratios for June and September.
Options Flow for June onwards and 100K+. Nothing particularly stands out so far.
You never know these days, but I don’t think china goes at taiwan with guns blazing. There’s smarter ways to go about taking over a country that you want to integrate into your own. They’re also having some pretty serious issues right now with the way they’re trying to handle covid.
I do think china will make a move on taiwan at some point, but they’d likely try to do it politically first.
U.S. concerned after China says it signs security pact with Solomon Islands
BLINKEN SAYS HE WILL SPEAK PUBLICLY IN COMING WEEKS ABOUT NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY RELATED TO CHINA
Just saw this on my news feed: Gravitas: Taiwan "surrounded" by Chinese warships & warplanes - YouTube
WION has been pretty reliable, could this play out similar to “imminent” from the Ukraine invasion? If so, this news video would put us in Early January 2022 in terms of the invasion timeline.
Couple of interesting developments surrounding this topic.
Following up to Taiwan being surrounded by Chinese military for their exercises, it looks like they blew up some US and Taiwanese base replicas as part of that exercise?
And today there was news of Chinese officials suggesting the de-risking of overseas assets after seeing the effects of Western sanctions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-insists-party-elites-shed-overseas-assets-eyeing-western-sanctions-on-russia-11652956787
Not sure if this is real or not but apparently a Chinese human rights activist leaked an audio file regarding war mobilization against Taiwan in the coming months, taken place on May 14, 2022.
English translation and transcript
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1528100158063403008
Today Biden said US would defend Taiwan militarily is China invaded. White House corrected Biden, apparently for the third time, that the US policy is not changing. They would only send weapons to aid, similar to Ukraine, and not actually militarily intervene.
Interesting new article today featuring Zhou Bo, a retired officer of the People’s Liberation Army.
Beijing has said it aims for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. On Tuesday, Zhou cited China’s “Anti-Secession Law” for the conditions under which Beijing would use force.
“Unless and until Taiwan declares independence, unless and until an external force separates Taiwan from China, or unless and until the possibility of peaceful reunification is totally exhausted,” he said, “otherwise we would not be using force.”
“Of course, if the Taiwan authorities [are] against this possibility of reunification indefinitely, of course we have to be well prepared,” Zhou said. “We are not sorry for that.”
I don’t think that Taiwan is going to be outright invaded without some kind of catalyst, though that catalyst may come.
Let’s look at hong kong, this is a perfect example to look at since it happened not long ago. When HK was handed over to china, there was an agreement that they would be allowed to operate more or less independently for 50 years. However, after 50 years china had the right to throw out their government and do whatever they want. Of course, china started meddling with their government immediately, and HK citizens were also pushing to make HK independent permanently. This last bit obviously does not sit well with a dictator. When protests intensified, that was the catalyst for china to decide that they’re going to crack down immediately and start controlling HK from beijing.
Taiwan is in a situation that is similar. They do operate independently, but technically they’re part of china under the “one china” policy. I’m sure the CCP sees them as their property, and dictators don’t like it when they feel like their property is being violated. Right now there’s an uneasy status quo, where they operate independently but aren’t allowed to be officially recognized as such. A push to make Taiwan officially independent could be a catalyst for china to actually invade. Even comments like vowing to support taiwan militarily could be a catalyst as that’s provoking china.
I would start looking for things that show that china’s either pushing the reunification timeline forward or actions that would act as an invasion catalyst. Eg. reports that china’s rigging elections to install their people in taiwan’s government, or things like protests against china (which is what triggered the actions in HK). Also keep in mind that in the event of china invading taiwan, taiwan stocks and their ADRs may have trading halted for an indefinite period of time.
China is escalating their war drills and war language, apparently in response to Biden’s comment the other day about defending Taiwan militarily, despite the White House quickly walking back on those comments on behalf of Biden.
As Maester Luwin once said, “too quickly words of war become acts of war.”
When asked if the PLA drills were related to Biden’s remarks, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that by hollowing out the one-China principle, by either openly or secretly encouraging and supporting “Taiwan independence” secessionist activities, the US will not only bring consequences to China-US ties that would be beyond repair, but also lead to unbearable costs for the US.
Col. Shi Yi, a spokesperson for the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army, said in a statement that the drills were a “solemn warning to the recent US-Taiwan collusion activities.”
It is hypocritical and futile, and will only lead the situation to a place where it becomes dangerous, with the US facing serious consequences as well, Shi said.
And then posted 5 hours ago by Bloomberg:
The US and Taiwan are planning to announce negotiations to deepen economic ties, people familiar with the matter said, in a fresh challenge to Beijing, which has cautioned Washington on its relationship with the island.
The talks would focus on enhancing economic cooperation and supply-chain resiliency, falling short of a traditional free-trade agreement, according to the people. The deal is likely to include areas of trade facilitation, supply-chain work and trade in agricultural products, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of a public announcement.
US continuing to push specific relations with Taiwan should egg China on.
And apparently Taiwan civilians are taking up target practice as a worst case scenario against China.
You have to remember that almost every conflict in history was provoked in some way.
Russia’s full on invasion of ukraine was mostly provoked by the ukraine trying to get closer to the west. China violating their agreement and taking over hong kong was provoked by the increased pro-democracy push in HK. Taiwan strengthening ties to the US is absolutely a provocation, especially with dumb comments coming from the president (even though the white house tried to walk it back, the damage is already done).
At this point I would still be surprised to see china go for a full on invasion to taiwan, but I can see them upping their military presence or doing something else to try to exert control over taiwan. China IS run by a dictator and dictators don’t like it when their power is challenged, so I can’t imagine that they’re going to do nothing about taiwan getting closer to the US. I would expect some fireworks here.
Pelosi possibly visiting Taiwan seems to be the current highlight.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/22/white-house-pelosi-taiwan-trip-00047304
Sounds like Republicans want war 
“I don’t always agree with her, but on this one I applaud it,” Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an interview. “It’s important that we show up in Taiwan and demonstrate to China that we are supportive. That’s a very strong statement for a speaker to go to Taiwan.”
But Beijing on Thursday made an explicit threat to retaliate with “forceful measures” if Pelosi goes ahead with the trip, which was initially planned for April but was canceled after the speaker tested positive for Covid-19.
“If the U.S. insists on going its own way, China will take forceful measures to resolutely respond and counter it, and we will do what we say,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.
Experts say the U.S. should take Chinese officials at their word. Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said that given all the factors in play, “the Chinese may do more than just complain” if Pelosi goes ahead with the trip.
“This could be really consequential,” she said.
EWT, the Taiwan ETF, could be a play here as China continues to stack sanctions against Taiwan.
The holdings are 55% tech, with 22% of the entire ETF in $TSM.
EWT is currently testing the $50 support.
[size=4]Options Flow[/size]
Options activity is generally quite light on EWT. Since Pelosi’s landing, it seems that the bigger players have been loading August and September OTM puts.
I’d probably be most interested in the 08/19 50p or 49p. Adding EWT to the watchlist.
Back in June there were articles of a top China economist suggesting China to seize TSMC if China ever got sanctioned. Seizing TSMC would require actually going into Taiwan though, so that seems less likely.
I wonder what economic impacts China might make as a counterpunch to the recent activities from US/Taiwan.
TSLA and AAPL are two major US names with a large presence in China.
Opened EWT 08/19 50p at 1.10
