I saw a DD about CLVR showing that the company is much more porifitable than TLRY and SNDL. Also producing for a much lower cost than its competitors. The stock got knifed recently due to news but is back up 46% as i’m writing (2.8$) and the setup still seems bullish atm.
Fundamentaly, CLVR seems to be the better choice overall. Also it got beaten up recently so there might be more room to run here. I think it’s a safer choice for people who want to go safe with this MJ play.
For reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65bApTqRIE4&t=240s
If for some reason the Bill did go through and passed the Senate on stock to watch would be PM Phillip Morris. There is some chatter they are lobbying very hard for passage and would benefit the most due to their scale of manufacturing, distribution, and so on.
The House session to begin debate on the rule(s) starts today at 12:00. The vote on the MORE Act could be this afternoon if they get through the rules debate.
https://live.house.gov/
Recess right now but this will be the spot to watch if interested.
Even if you can’t catch live they have time-stamped transcript on the VOD.
Just to be clear and keep the info in the forum the vote taking place right now is for the Rule for consideration of the MORE Act and not the act itself. The vote on the MORE Act will most likely take place tomorrow. The Majority Leader page updates the schedule at 10am each morning.
House Resolution 1017 has passed clearing the way for the House vote on the MORE Act (weed bill). We will need to check the Majority Leader page at 10am tomorrow to see when the vote is scheduled.
The MORE Act has been read and referred to committee in the Senate.
Meanwhile, the text of the SAFE Banking Act of 2021 was incorporated into the America COMPETES Act (the Cold War bill) last month by the House. The Senate just passed COMPETES with revisions that are due to be reviewed and approved by the House before being signed into law by Brandon. SAFE provides cannabis firms with access to federal lenders. This bullish.
There’s two more related, albeit less relevant, bills floating around:
CAO (Chuck’s version of MORE. It’s got really high tax rate. Idk much else)
SRA (Republican-backed house bill. Similar treatment to alcohol, but no commie reform or expungement so not getting out of the House imo. Notably low excise rate)
I tried to keep cringe politics at bay in this post. Sorry for any hurt fee-fees.
With weed stocks pumping again today, I took another look at LFLY. We had stated float was around 2.5 million, somewhere in there.
Short interest is around 1.1 million and OI on the $10 is 12,784.
The price is currently around $8.30 and the $7.5c are back to $1. With de-SPAC also hot right now, is this a good play? There are only 374 OI on the 7.5c, but with cost being low it doesn’t seem like it would take much to move it. I don’t currently have a position, but if there’s more interest I will.
Took some Tilray TLRY
05.20.22 $9c & 05.20.22 $15c for a potential run-up to 4.20 as booker trying to drop the bill on the senate. Probably wouldn’t actually plan to hold through the news, or would like to scale out of initial risk if the stock trends positive til then. Right now Tilray is up after having earnings and conference call this morning, I havent looked into them quite yet, but its positive on a red market day, so I think sentiment may be strong enough to hold this
Edit - 04.07 - Added to these positions to average down, I should have closed yesterday when TLRY broke down and waited for a re-entry. Im scaling in because I still think news on the bill moving to the senate, 4.20 or some other sentiment may give TLRY a pop and an exit opportunity
I took put fd #tlry
Gamble position.
Edit: This position is based off porcelain TA
I think the correct bull strategy for this, and probably any legislation, is in shares. Cannabis reform has been political topic in the US for decades. The US legislative process is slow and, at the present, can be unpredictable. It’s also unlikely that any cannabis decriminalization bill passes. Timing is likely very difficult. My play would be to enter on support and hold shares for next news pop.
Senators want to stay elected, and to do that they need to pander to their voting constituents. In most jurisdictions, Boomers and Gen-X, who give less positive treatment to decriminalization than other age groups, overwhelmingly outnumber younger, more progressive (with regards to cannabis laws) voters. In order to retain these votes, the Senators will always vote against the evils of weed (until such time that weed is no longer evil).
It’s also important to consider that this is a midterm election year with an incumbent and congressional majority (its not much but it is one) being from the same party. It’s very likely that the 118th Congress is going to be partisan as fuck.
