All good info. I can say this. My F store in particular because that’s all I can fully know for sure. Was down Q4 to Q3 inventory. So if that extrapolates out to others low inventory means low sales. I think earnings will reflect this. To the microprocessor point. Yes significantly more and more are being put on “chip hold “ yet again. Hasn’t reached the Louisville speedway filled with them type of levels but they are definitely having issues. Chip supply decreased 23 percent this week over last. That’s not good!
2 Likes
Here are the publication of sales
As we can see 2021 sold less than 2020.
In regards to earnings play it might go fairly flat like GM and trade on the news of EV and will be dependent on fridays momentum. Was initially thinking of playing calls but im not too sure right now. Considering Ford is very visible with their news and is following Teslas media relationship strategy, things might be priced in already from a sales perspective.
Good info. I think earnings will consist of blowing smoke about EV restructuring as mentioned in article. As far as retail order sales being highest ever. That is simply because there is no ground stock inventory. So people need cars and trucks they have to order them. However those numbers also don’t mean squat if they can’t produce them. Currently on Superduty they have been able to fill all retail orders placed prior to November just now. So essentially on their number one profitable line they have a four month back log of sold orders due to production supply chain type of issues.
1 Like
Sales figures provided by GCBC in the charts do not seem accurate from the data I have access to. something to consider if you are looking to play F earnings
What is the data that you see? If you cant comment on it can you give us a summary of difs from the GCBC data?
They are also touting huge EV growth numbers in the article. This is simply a play on numbers Mach E was barely rolling out last year in January so of course this years growth would be up.
Going to trim some puts tomorrow then ride a third of them though ER with the understanding that they could become worthless. Seeing the January sales and their PR around it make me feel more certain that they’re going to have bad news on the short term outlook. But I’m barely up on these puts and want to protect more capital. Also Stop holding through earnings
Still thinking about LEAPS sometime next quarter and will be keeping an eye on the Ford fanboy forums for an improvement in deliveries.
1 Like
I’m not touching it for earnings. I think the call is gonna consist of a lot of EV talk and hoopla. And the EV fanboy crowd will jump on. Just like when they released that they doubled lightning production for 22. That caused last run. Was sitting here ordering cars for our store currently when this popped up and for what’s it worth I have 30 allocated to schedule this week and not 1 single car or truck was selected to be built.
2 Likes
I’m a big Ford long term bull. Bought ‘23 calls at 12 and got nice returns. Sold them off as I agree we’re heading down before we head up. Will be watching for a good entry point in the next quarter or so. Fords investment in RD speaks for itself (almost 7bb between 2013-2019). Their new releases are desirable autos, but until they get the chips they need their earnings will continue to be constrained. I think it may touch 15 or lower and at that point I’ll be juicing into 23/24 calls
2 Likes
I’ve ran the F store for 6 years now. Previously at our Chrysler store. And for 6 years manufacturing has been an issue. Even before they had chip shortage. Yes I agree their product and new release stuff which is far more than any other manufacturer is awesome. They need to reorganize their production efforts. I do agree they are set up for run in next few years
1 Like
Hooray for the puts! Thanks to everyone who contributed here.
I bought a LEAP today, looks like others in TF did too.
Also news is making the rounds that Mach E orders will be shut down next week. For how long is uncertain, but some folks are working backwards from Jim Farley’s tweet using other statements about Lightning and Transit to deduce that the Mach E has 55k open orders, which is close to an entire year’s worth of production (~70k). For what it’s worth.
1 Like
This is correct Transit Mach E Maverick are all built out for 22 model year. To most this would sound like a good problem. For F. However the overall production numbers will be meager compared to years past.
Saw this article this morning, figured it was worth posting:
.
Funny thing, 3 days ago on Fortune there’s an article titled, “GM declares chip crisis over—and says it’s time to let the cheap cars roll”… Ummm… sure…
I don’t have a lot of in depth knowledge of Ford but I can share from personal experience the auto supply chain side of things is still in pretty rough shape. Right now I’m seeing some of the worst back order issues on the parts side for collision / repair than I’ve seen since our covid supply chain issues began. All OEM’s have their own issues but just wanted to share what I’m seeing on the Toyota side, it ebbs and flows with all manufacturers but I believe there’s some headwinds in front of us yet in 2022 that could impact financial performance and guidance.
3 Likes
I’d be watching out for more bearish movement on ford. There is a possible gap here that would be a really good entry.
2 Likes
Looking like a monthly put is in play here?
1 Like
After the dip Friday, I started a longer term call position I will be adding to periodically.
I plan on continuing to play puts on Ford in the meantime like I have been since before this DD was posted.
Also, I did a thread on OSK today, If the fed does in fact pull the contract with OSK for the USPS new EV fleet truck, expect automakers like Ford to start throwing their name in the ring.
1 Like
While the USPS contract was awarded to Oshkosh, it was essentially a partnership with Ford since the base vehicle is their transit van. Ford already has an EV transit. I think the only issue at hand would be for the vehicle to meet USPS requirements and Oshkosh to be able to build them out on budget.
If they have to restart the whole bidding & selection process, then it’s going to be several more years delay just from the government red tape, and even longer before vehicles are delivered and put into service. I don’t think USPS or the whitehouse wants that kind of delay.
1 Like