Implied Volatility Smiles: Can they indicate direction? Need more eyes on this

Hello everyone. This is a thread based on this video I have found here: https://youtu.be/9HSA2ak4T4A

I recommend watching it before you read any further. I think it is very interesting, and could possibly give some precious insights in terms of future movement.

What is an Implied Volatility Smile? We all know that IV is the lowest at the money, and it increases the farther out the strikes go, in both directions (up or down).

It appears that this is not the case for certain stocks, specifically those who are part of the S&P500 ETF. For them, we notice that a smile is formed, which basically means the lowest range of IV is for strikes located out of the money.

You can check this for yourself. Look at the options chains for NVDA for September 16th. You will notice a smile at the 192.5 strike with the lowest IV on the board, rather than at 172.5 (current price). Notice how the IV rises both above and below that strike.

This is an anomaly, and apparently it indicates price direction. That is, NVDA stock is supposed to increase its price the closer we get to that date.

I would like to know your opinion on this, in terms of validity and reliability.

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