Hey there. Neighborhood Frycook here. I posted yesterday on Discord about this play and got a punished by our Crumbl God for not mentioning it on the forums today.
Given the SPY Rally since FOMC, PTON was correlating significantly, but noticeably had its own volume as well during those days. Yesterday saw PTON being rejected touching $29.60, now at $27. As of right now, it is curling up, but that may be an opportunity for a longer out Put once it reaches its (hopefully) intraday top.
My impression of this stock is that considering it’s moreso speculative for investors currently due to no bullish news in the short term, it will likely trend down in the coming days. Most likely making monthlies profitable. Currently I’m in $21 Puts for Apr. 14th, though I also bought when it was at the $22 level and have averaged down today.
The biggest risks to this play is likely if SPY decides to rally once again and push past 450, the second being Meme Stock correlation. Granted, it’s weaker than AMC/GME correlation, but it does have the eyes of WSB. I would not be surprised if this slowly moves up if there’s a potential run on either companies.
Going to correlate with the Market reaction. Not impressed with the bull movement today as it saw its resistance again from 2 days ago.
I might consider trimming next week depending on if SPY doesn’t continue to slump- just so I can average my positions down further on possible upward movement. I didn’t pick the best spot to average yesterday even though I made the mention of a -decent- spot to enter.
Before end of day. It seems PTON was unable to follow along with SPY in that recovery period in the middle of the day, instead hanging on at its $28 support. ITM Puts technically rised from open today, but overall were down from close yesterday due to opening higher.
Just another good area to watch for a break before 4PM.
I believe this is what you’d want to see on the daily. Noticeably high volume green days losing volume each day until it reaches the apex before a possible slump. Unconfirmed downtrend yet, but a high likelihood this rally (specifically on PTON) is at its end.
Ended today at $28.07 (-1.23% / -0.35). Noticed this Friday where PTON was only able to grab onto SPY momentum in the afternoon, but overall PTON has been underperforming the Market the last two trading sessions. During its late afternoon run, it began to sell off at 28.32-- likely seeing heavier resistance at its opening level.
I believe tomorrow will confirm the bearish trend I’ve been expecting since last week as today’s correlation on the downside was stronger than Friday’s.
Sadly today ended poorly on my analysis. Likely between Meme Hype and Markets not turning back down as some people expected. I decided to get out of my current position and going to reposition smaller and nearer ITM. I don’t think I’m wrong to think PTON should go down, but I do think my entry and cost basis at the start is what led me to taking a bigger loss than I should have.
My biggest regret to this as of right now is not revaluating my position earlier given the risk that I would be wrong in the timeframe I’m playing this.
PTON had news today + overall markets been so bullish, I’m not sure your right or wrong but this may change things?
---- Co Emails Customers Saying ‘Soon, you can turn any room with a TV into a Peloton strength-training gym with Peloton Guide. Dive into the features that will change the way you workout and get ready to see yourself grow stronger…’
Mhm! Currently in a 30 and 28 from near EOD yesterday. Up 50% so far on both. Not from that $32 top either yesterday.
Still correlating with the Market, but likely people are selling the news on that announcement as well. If we see anymore bad moves by Nasdaq and SPY today, that’d be great-- for this play.
It appears to be back in line for a downtrend on the daily. Today showed unusually large volume in the morning leading up to the intraday fall, only to find its support at $26.5.
This may have been on News of them having to cancel their fitness regiment for the Morning and Afternoon, as silly as that sounds. Given the Market seems to also have sold off today, hopefully this will continue down if SPY decides to either chill its tweaked self out at 450 or lose all of its gains from these 2 weeks.
Currently out of this since this morning. Today looks like a small bounce as it did a SAR crossover on Monday.
That along with the Market seeming to stabalize somewhat today. I’ll be watching for another Put entry at some point this week. I would consider Calls, but those to me seem to have more risk and shorter holds.
So at home and finally able to get an idea of what’s going on…
It appears PTON reduced the price of a product they’re releasing tomorrow, expecting to recieve more sales in doing so. This news likely will pivot the Stock up a little further tomorrow, but I won’t risk the chance of being wrong.
It’d be safer for News to settle and watch for a harder resistance level (which seemed to be 32 last week).
…All this time analyzing a tech fitness stock while I could be out getting fit and not tubby. Smh…
Decided to rebrand this thread as the rally exhaustion for the most part has completed its course. Last two days have been pretty boring for this stock. You can certainly play this bearishly if the Market continues to slump, but this likely will hover around $20.
Given how absolutely insane my puts were when this stock began to turn around from $32, I’ll definitely be waiting for another rally to get into calls then do the same thing over again with puts.
