Iowa looks to be flat, continued degredation in Illinois and Indiana.
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So these crop conditions report come out every Monday I’m guessing. Would that mean the rest of this weeks action we be based on weather reports in your opinion?
I think that the weather narritive will be the driving factor for now, yes. And yes every Monday another crop conditions report is released.
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The sell-off in grain futures this morning is telling us the market doesn’t care for whatever reason. I’m wondering if the models are showing a pattern change. Continuing with this is not going to do us any good. I think it’s done. Sorry folks. <:pepepray:930324508018106448>
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Can’t predict the weather. you called it right and corn went up about $4 since start of this thread and I learned a lot about corn over the past few weeks
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It was awesome following this, and I learned a lot thank you for this 
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Well today was a pretty big shock to the grain markets with the planted acres report release. Corn gained acres and soybeans lost acres, bearish corn for the near term, perhaps into spring '24. Bullish soybeans until we get an idea of what Brazil’s planting intentions are or a substantial improvement in crop conditions for the United States. The reason an increase of only 2% in planted corn acres was that impactful (outside of increased supply vs steady demand) is because that large of an acerage shift almost never happens (there are traders calling bullshit on those numbers but USDA and the market will not deviate from that number so it really doesn’t matter)! I am really glad we were mostly out of this before that dropped, and honestly it was more luck than anything! That was by far the wildest two weeks worth of price action I’ve seen in a decade. At this point I expect continues volitility as the futures market basicall re-evaluates everything it thought it knew proir to 06/30/2023 at 12:00PM EST. I am glad we aren’t trading futures on the CME because judging the reaction of traders on #agtwitter I’m sure folks were destroyed today. Futures contracts for grains are 5k bushels/per so without factoring in IV or any greek a $0.35 USD move in corn is a $1750.00 USD move on the contract. At this point I will watch the market but it’s going to be holding a bag of popcorn, not a buy order.
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And <@373882275429089290> I apoligize for not addressing the DBA ETF directly. I looked into the 8k and it was not clear as to what contract month they were basing the valuation off of for the grain commodities and there was language concerning swapping and substituting commodities depending upon their estimation of the greatest potential return. The other factor is that what can be bullish factors for corn or soybeans can tend to be bearish for live cattle and lean hogs. If we’re in a drought and farmers out west cannot produce enough feed to sustain their herd then they will cull part of it which causes a short term glut of live cattle and thus a sell off. Also it looked like there was sugar and cocoa in that “basket” that really wouldn’t be effected by a drought in the midwest. <:pepepray:930324508018106448> So with that we’re going to hang this one up. Once again i very much appreciate the input you guys brought to this. Have a great weekend and be safe!
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