How is buying few dollars OTM for someone with a smaller account?
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Won’t the IV from after-hours movement affect earning play profits anyway? We would get crushed the next day.
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only if you buy OTMs like a degenerate
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These were bought 10, 5, and 1 minute before close today…
Maybe… just maybe… somebody knew something
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WSJ insiders / friends? “Hey, I’m going to publish this article and the stock is gonna skyrocket!”
FYI… I’m in like Flint for puts Monday too…
EDIT: I just don’t see why Amazon (or any large company) would want to be Peloton. The company is in a current state of decline for numerous factors. Buying now would be overpaying, one would almost think it would be worthwhile to simply wait till they are on the verge of bankruptcy. And for the monthly cost of membership ($39), I highly doubt Amazon would simply throw it in for free with Prime.
EDIT 2: Looks like other articles from CNBC and Financial Times are floating the idea that Nike, Apple, or Disney could also be looking into purchasing… Of course all parties are declining to comment.
Another snippet I find laughable:
They were just above that before their collapse last earnings (around $85-$90)… Apparently investors don’t feel the same as the analyst.
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Recap for anyone on the edge of being bearish on PTON the next few days:
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Demand decreased, this takes away revenue.
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They decreased production in response to decreased demands. Obviously this takes away profits EVEN MORE.
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In terms of competition, there are cheaper alternatives online. Especially on Amazon.
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The stock price has been recently inflated almost 30% on the basis of Amazon acquisition rumors (also spread by Cramer after-hours. You know the drill, inverse Cramer). This is the cry of a bag-holder. Amazon acquisition rumors are not something that’s uncommon and it often ends in plummeting after they are disproven. Moreover, anyone that has done their research on Amazon knows they are more likely to copy Peloton’s products as “Amazon basics” rather than acquire PTON at these prices. It is a MONOPOLY.
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The past 9 earnings for PTON has led to a drop afterwards. No way on God’s green earth will PTON beat earnings especially after decreased demand and finances were so severe that production had to be decreased
My position for Monday morning (holding through earnings): OTM puts expiring March 04 due to IV, not too worried about Theta as it will be sold middle next week. However, if I’m overlooking any of the greeks in my degenerate yolo or something about the stock itself, any advice is appreciated. I only have 1 years experience of trading. Good luck to all🙏🏾
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Not too much PUT OI for Mar-04, looks like the monthlies are a better choice. Feb-18th IMO is cutting it too close and theta is retarded. I’m likely going to go for Mar-18th as there is plenty of OI on numerous strikes (likely will choose one of the $5 strike intervals, depending on what prices are Monday morning).
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I’m trying to maximize profits. The way I’ve seen this done is with successful OTM strategies before substantial rise of Vega as cheaper premium has substantial upside. With that being said, would you think $20s and $15s at March 18th. Pure retardation?
Edit: obviously we would also have to see the premiums come Monday morning and how the OI changed.
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it already got its bullish surprise on friday + the earnings preview looks meh
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By no means is twitter data reliable either, just a different data point. I would post whether it supported the current thesis or not. As always, playing through earnings should be a gamble anyway.
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Took March Puts at open and up 30%, took profit here and will keep a small gampling position.
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A lot of deep ITM put leaps today. Also notice the spam of them seconds before market close (PST timezone).
Some unusually bullish short dated calls… but generally more bearish.
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CEO Stepping down as of this morning.
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I guess it’s too late to buy puts now? 
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PTON decided to release ER this morning and moved the Call to 8:30 EST this morning.
https://investor.onepeloton.com/static-files/b0419d52-2795-4c38-a295-ae9c73550b8f
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Just my two cents I would be cautious with an entry, PTON is pretty beat down and it appears the market may think this is bullish news and start of a turn around.
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This could also be a Wish situation. You have an initial pop on news then a slow bleed after everyone realizes it’s not actually bullish.
It’s a risk though and I do not have a position.
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Got a March 18th put yesterday near end of day on that little pop. Looks like there was an initial knife but it’s coming back up…
Not sure if I want to sell at open or hold and see how things pan out for a couple days.
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