RSX & OZON Updates & MOEX Status

[Conqueror]

Adding a link to the analysis from @BBarna in the Ukraine thread:

Ukraine Invasion Plays: XOM, USO, LMT, RSX, CRWD, PANW, IRNT, etc

I wanted to think through the potential scenarios with RSX for the coming weeks and writing it down is the easiest to have it organised in my head, hopefully it helps others to make decisions too. As we all know, RSX is halted indefinitely. What this means for us put holders is ambiguous at this moment and there are several ways this can go in the following weeks. There is a lot to consider, and the considerations may differ depending on what expiration, what strike put you are holding. MOEX The first definite factor that should have an impact on the decision you will make is whether MOEX opens next week, or they will keep pushing the opening. We will have more information about this before the next expiration for sure. Why is this important? Currently almost all holdings of RSX are suspended from trading, meaning RSX NAV is mostly frozen too, other than small overall movement. What happens when MOEX opens is also not clear currently. Foreigners to Russia are currently banned from selling stocks on MOEX, even from closing their positions. Short selling is also prohibited. This means that selling pressure will be somewhat lowered, but it will be a bloodbath anyway, no question. And here comes the part that is a little concerning to me if MOEX opens next week. RSX NAV is currently calculated by assuming a drop of 95.573% in the stocks traded on MOEX compared to 25 Feb. If on the opening day MOEX holdings drop 70% from 25 Feb, that would result in an increase of 578% compared to 3 Mar calculated market value in RSX. Ceteris paribus, this would increase RSX NAV from $87.9M to $133.1M or a NAV/Share of $1.39. Assuming a more conservative 50% drop in MOEX holdings, NAV/Share would be $1.76. Now this doesn`t sound too bad, still way in the money for the puts most of us likely holds. There is also an argument to be made that some of these companies are actually worthless, if not in their fundementals, then because the Russian market is considered uninvestible, so a larger than 70% drop may be possible. The following companies are included in the above calculation, if anyone hs time to research how they have been affected fundemantally due to the sanctions, and other considerations: TRNFP ALRS MOEX IRAO RTKM RASP London Stock Exchange The next part to have the potential to have similar effects is the GDRs trading on the London Stock Exchange (currently halted from trading). This is more complex as there are more aspects to look into. These are essentially certificates to allow easier access to foreing investments, that any holder can trade in for the stocks trading on MOEX. In a regular scenario these should be following the price of the stock trading on MOEX. Considering the current developments where foreign investors are not allowed to close their long position on MOEX traded stocks, it is safe to assume that it will be a least somewhat decoupled, as it is currently unknown how long this restriction would last after MOEX opens. Ther…