SPY Model - Signals

I had to wonder if it would actually happen, but sure enough it did 10 days early.

515 strike was ATM at the time i took it. I took the chance on your signal at 65% chance Spy reaching 524. Calls are at +46%. Without averaging down.

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how go the signals nowadays? I always thought this was neat but never played it… Mainly because I couldn’t afford ATM SPY calls that far out

It has been spot on for me every time i played them. I do get ATM calls but even if you go $2-5 OTM are still good.

Small sample size, I’ve only played the strong ones (2) recently but they paid big. Waiting for the next <:pepepray:930324508018106448>

Feel like in general long SPY calls are a ‘no brainer’. Just a matter of picking the right entry and being aware of the evnviornment (ex. 2022)image

Glad we have people who can translate these opportunities <:pepepray:930324508018106448>

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Not much to report for this model unfortunately. We are in a 5,4 Uptrend so no signal.

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Based on past data, there is a 58% chance SPY goes up 2% sometime in the next 30 days and a 53% chance it goes down 2%.


The return group has moved to a 5,4 Even Trend today. While this is technically a signal to buy SPY Calls 30 days out according to this model, it’s very weak since there have only been 132 instances of this return group over the past 100 or so years. I like to see 400 or more data points before I play these signals. I won’t be playing this one. Also, CPI is tomorrow so that may have an outsized impact on the returns.


Same 5,4 Even Trend today.

With the continued decline this morning, we’ve now moved to a 4,4 Even Trend. Still no signal, but there is now a greater chance (61%) of a 2% decline in the next 30 days than an 2% gain (59%)image

And now it’s a 4,4 Downtrend. No signal since this return group has only occurred 41 times in history.


Thanks for the update Brutus!! We appreciate you!

My pleasure


We closed yesterday and opened again today in a 4,3 Downtrend return group. This is a buy signal for SPY Calls ATM strikes 30 day exp. This return group has occurred 184 times so not a lot of data, but enough to call this a signal. I’d like to have 400 or more data points, but more than 100 is decent. I’ll likely play this signal. It’s been a very long time since we’ve had a signal so I’m happy to be able to play one.


The trade is very expensive right now so I may wait and hope the price comes down later today. I’m looking at SPY 505 strike with 5/17/24 exp. Price is $10.65 currently. I prefer to buy sub-$10.

Looks like we are still above $10, but I’d like to jump in this play before tomorrow in case it pops. I’m moving my strike down to 504 and will pay a little extra premium to do so. 10.94 currently

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