SPY Model - Signals

Great calls, I managed to bring my -75% monthly call to +25%

The return group is still a 5,3 Uptrend this morning so no signal again today.

With the run this morning, my SPX Put is now up 75% which is typically my threshold to close the trade. I may close it out or I may hold it a bit longer this time since there is no signal and I wouldn’t have any trades on. I don’t like sitting on the sidelines. Seems highly unlikely we see a drop to 5090 (3.79% decline) by June 7th so I could hold these to closer to expiration and pocket additional premium.

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Same return group today, 5,3 Uptrend so no signal. My SPX Puts are at 80% of premium so I’ll likely close the trade today. Up about $1,000.image

Closed it, now I’m out of all tradesimage

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Still 5,3 Uptrend so no signal

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Same today, no signal

Same 5,3 Uptrend today, no signal

Even after this drop?

I ran a quick analysis and it looks like we won’t get another signal til SPY 505. Not sure on the upside.

We really need that pullback uh?

Either that or a big run

We are in the middle right now and it could go either way

Return group moved to a 5,2 Uptrend today. No signal still. Only a 65% likelihood it increases 2% within 30 days. Only 70% win rate on selling SPX Puts.image

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Is it possible to calculate this on QQQ?

Not nearly as much historical data on QQQ. It’s possible to run the data, would take many hours, but not sure how beneficial it would be without the high rate of data points. That is what gives me confidence in it’s predictability. If I have less than 100 data points for a return group, I’m not calling it a signal.

Then don’t worry about it