TGT earnings play

rather than a double diagonal, why not reduce your capital risk and try a butterfly? you could setup both a bullish and bearish butterfly for almost nothing, and still do better depending on strike selection

I’m all ears! Can’t quite picture the combo of the bullish and bearish butterflies in tandem though - would you perhaps be able to give an example using OptionStrat?

i dont know how to do that - i dont really use OptionStrat. but, currently the expected move for the week of earnings is: +/- 11.672image

so if you wanted 10 width butterflies, evenly sized, and you bought one ATM/slightly ITM for the expected move widths, your profit/loss looks something like this

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max gain of 500% at 145, or 125. breakevens around 139.xx on the long side or 130.xx on the short side.

death if the stock goes nowhere, in which case a calendar spread might have been better anyway

you can overlap butterflies too, but i have never done that before so i wouldnt suggest it to anyone else

Hmm, not sure I like the R/R - it’s almost 1:1 within the expected range, with 48% prob of profit on ~$450 risked. Will have to thread the ranges pretty well. Custom Calculator | OptionStrat - Options Trade Visualizer

Whereas the calendar is green across the range, and chance of profit is 74%, and R/R is 2.5:1.

Having said that… I did not have time to tend to the market orders today, neither of which filled :stuck_out_tongue: Need to grab them tomorrow.image