Ukraine Invasion Plays: XOM, USO, LMT, RSX, CRWD, PANW, IRNT, etc

@dooknukem looks like those LMT calls will continue to pay come Monday.

Chinese official reports winter wheat harvest ‘worst in history’

China’s agriculture minister reported over the weekend that the recent winter wheat harvest could be the “worst in history,” providing further justification to buy from Russia.

Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian said rare heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third the normal wheat supply, leading to a roughly 20% shortage in crop yield.

The war between Russia and Ukraine, which together produce roughly 29% of global wheat exports, had already pushed wheat prices to an incredible 14-year high.

The shortage could create food security issues for China, driving it to buy wheat from Russia. The two countries worked out a deal on Feb. 24 that allowed China to import wheat from all regions of Russia, which could provide Russia with greater funds for its war and further relief from devastating sanctions on its economy.

Russia attacks Vinnytsia airport with 8 cruise missiles

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported Sunday that Russian forces attacked a civilian airport with eight cruise missiles.

“Against our city, against our peaceful Vinnytsia which never posed a threat to Russia in any way,” Zelenskyy said in a video posted on Twitter. “A brutal, cynical missile strike has completely destroyed the airport.

Kuleba labelled the attack as “barbaric,” and both officials renewed their calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

The Russian Embassy in Israel pushed back on the reports by writing that the airport is “dual-purpose” and serves as a base of operations for the aviation brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russia’s credit rating cut again, close to default

Rating agency Moody’s delivered another body-blow to Russia as it set the nation’s credit rating at its second-lowest rung, putting the country in danger of default.

Moody’s said its decision to cut Russia’s rating was “driven by severe concerns around Russia’s willingness and ability to pay its debt obligations”.

Russia has kept its stock market closed over fears of a sell-off, which would crater the already vulnerable economy. The ruble dropped over 20% in the past week, with $1 equal to 124 RUR. Prior to Russia’s invasion, $1 was equal to 83.53 RUR.

VTB Bank Prepares to Exit Europe, FT Reports

Russia’s VTB Bank is preparing to wind down its European operations after being hit hard by sanctions, the Financial Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the internal discussions. VTB declined to comment to the newspaper.

“We’re trying to do it as swiftly as we can - but operations in Europe are much more complicated than those in the U.K.,” the FT reported a person involved in the planning as saying. “We’re doing everything we can to get customers’ money back to them.”

Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, decided to exit the European market last week. Together, Sberbank and VTB account for more than half of Russia’s banking market.

Blinken Says U.S., Europe Discussing Russia Oil Ban

The U.S. is in talks with European countries on a joint approach to any ban on Russian oil imports that could still ensure adequate supplies, said Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Blinken, currently in Eastern Europe, said he discussed the matter with President Joe Biden and other cabinet members on Saturday.

“We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil, while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets,” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “That’s a very active discussion as we speak.”

Russian Lender Looks for Workaround to Visa, Mastercard Ban

Russia’s biggest lender, Sberbank PJSC, said it’s looking at the possibility of issuing cards using the domestic payments system Mir and China’s UnionPay after credit card giants Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. suspended operations there.

The move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, since state-owned UnionPay operates in 180 countries and regions. Visa and Mastercard said that any transactions initiated with their cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country from March 10.

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Is anyone looking into SHEL as a potential play this week? Apparently they quietly bought Russian oil on a steep discount on March 4th, and a lot of people aren’t happy about it. I’m still investigating potential impacts on the stock price, but wanted to see if anyone else had eyes on it. Here’s a BBC article from this morning Shell defends 'difficult' decision to buy Russian crude oil - BBC News

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I’d be a little hesitant to take a sentiment based position on it considering the steadily increasing costs of oil. They’ve also committed to sending those profits to a Ukraine Aid Fund. It might not be a bad sentiment hit they take on Monday considering those two things. Oil companies (XOM, for example), have been steadily climbing since this whole fiasco started.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shell-put-profits-russian-oil-trade-into-ukraine-aid-fund-2022-03-05/

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A bit outlandish but Something I’ve been seeing these past few days is news articles saying that Coca-cola is still doing business in Russia, I think there could be negative sentiment building and considering Russia has just shelled an evacuation route during a ceasefire I don’t see that getting any better. We could see an announcement soon that they will no longer be doing business in Russia, looking at the chart they’re trading pretty high right now.

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There’s been news of a few large corporations still doing business, but I would bet the “cancel culture” will continue this week with more and more big names cutting ties with Russia.

The sentiment over anti-russia business like with Shell or Coke I think won’t amount to a hill of beans compared to the continued large price movements we will see in commodities, defense companies, and shipping.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/china-taiwan-ukraine-report/

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I agree I think there’s more risk less reward on some of these sentiment plays like Shell or Coke sentiment play. I think commodities/defense/spy puts is my play for the week unless I see something drastically change and things seem-escalate quickly but nothing is pointing in that direction right now

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Interesting read. Can you put in the China tensions thread?

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My girlfriend got a heads up on Visa and Mastercard suspending Russia transactions on Friday morning and she didn’t tell until I was talking about it yesterday :rage:

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Sure thing !

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Interesting article on some long term Russia recovery plays

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TIK TOK IS SUSPENDING USERS AND STREAMING IN RUSSIA
Wow

Thanks alot for this analysis! Another important thing to remember is timing. Even if RSX announces a liquidation at NAV, it will take time for that to actually occur.

Going off of the timeline that RUSL laid out, they first announced their liquidation on 2/28. They planned the delisting to occur two weeks after the announcement, on 3/11. After that, there would be another week until the “liquidation date” on 3/18 at which point all shareholders would receive a cash payment of the fund’s NAV.

When the OCC published their memo for RUSL’s contract adjustment, the date given was 3/18 (the liquidation date), and the options expiring afterward would be “accelerated” to that date. What this means is, even if RSX announced their liquidation tomorrow, the actual “liquidation date” might be after our puts’ expiration date.

That said, I still have no idea how likely any of this is, I’m just going off of what we’ve seen so far with RUSL (which I assume we will also with RSX in the days to come). Just something worth keeping in mind, I think.

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In this case you would exercise your options and let the shorts opened get dropped when delisting happens.

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Conq would you only be able to exercise options ITM in this senerio?

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Nah, you could exercise the OTMs as well.

I’m going to split this thread up I think since the RSX/OZON situation is no longer an “active trade”.

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Yeah, i may not have been entirely clear about this, i thought this came through my post.

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AMEX suspends operations in Russia, joins Visa, Mastercard

American Express announced Sunday that it will suspend all operations in Russia.

The credit card company follows Visa and Mastercard in providing its own sanctions against the country following its invasion of Ukraine.

As with Visa, all cards issued by Russian banks will no longer work outside of the country.

The move will apply additional pressure to the already fragile Russian economy as inflation continues to spiral upward.

Gas prices top $4 per gallon in US, second time ever

The national average for regular unleaded gas crossed the $4 per gallon mark for only the second time ever and sits just 10 cents from the all-time record high seen in July 2008.

The nationwide average sits at $4.009, according to AAA gas prices, up roughly 9 cents a gallon over Saturday’s average.

The price has risen 47 cents since Russia invaded Ukraine 11 days ago. Premium gas costs an average of $4.571, which is up 10 cents from Saturday’s average.

The record high for regular unleaded was $4.114 in July 2008.

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Please continue discussions regarding RSX in the above thread.

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Netflix suspends service in Russia

Netflix is pulling its service in Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine, the company confirmed to CNBC.

“Given the circumstances on the ground, we have decided to suspend our service in Russia,” a spokesperson said Sunday afternoon.

The Russian market makes up a relatively small percentage of Netflix’s overall numbers. The company has just under 1 million subscribers in Russia, CNBC previously reported, compared to its 222 million total paid memberships across the globe.

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