Heads up at Equinor, last night they were in talks with the departement.
They have assets/projects in Russia estimated worth of $1.2B at year end -21.
They will pull out of their russian operation, the only comment they had about it, we expect to take some losses.
This might not be bad news though, as it seems the board has looked for an excuse to exit the russian assets.
Good point
XOM also has a large investment in Sakhalin-I with 30% of the project in their ownership, and plans to invest further $5B in the next 5 years, curious to see what happens with that.
Really appreciate this insight. It certainly felt like RSX hadn’t dropped proportionally to the holdings and now I can definitely see that’s the case. Crazy to say but we definitely stumbled on worlds most obvious puts play lol.
Thank you for all the hard work my friend. 
absolutely incredible.
What about COIN or GBTC? It looks like the sanctions are breathing some life into these.
Probably a little longer term, but seen several articles regarding Cummins and CAT again and their ties with Russia.
for anyone worried on this push, see below the data for the past weeks for Last trade price/NAV
| Date | NAV | Last Trade | ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2/28/2022 | 7.82791 | 10.85 | 139% |
| 2/25/2022 | 15.92861 | 15.6 | 98% |
| 2/24/2022 | 13.30982 | 15.39 | 116% |
| 2/23/2022 | 19.4197 | 19.02 | 98% |
| 2/22/2022 | 20.29509 | 20.97 | 103% |
| 2/18/2022 | 23.11147 | 23.02 | 100% |
| 2/17/2022 | 24.19876 | 24.18 | 100% |
| 2/16/2022 | 25.52308 | 25.5 | 100% |
| 2/15/2022 | 24.9744 | 25.17 | 101% |
worst discrepancy was the day of invasion which closed the next day.
People buying RSX right now are paying a 30% premium for the basket of stocks they are getting in RSX
For anyone holding oil (USO, BNO, etc.) be aware that the US still hasn’t made announced they’re releasing oil from reserves and that is absolutely coming:
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1498684555263451142
When announced I’d assume oil will be knocked down, at that point a reentry is probably warranted since releases are only a temporary fix.
Puts until then? Wondering if it’ll be a SOTU mention as well?
Grabbed this just to kinda see what happens. Volume/spread is miserable.
I grabbed a BNO 27P -
Took a couple 29p here. Filled at $1.55
Thats a really good point. Not sure I’d bet heavy on it but its something that could certainly turn out to be profitable.
I decided to pull up the NAV P/D history on RSX to see how well in line its been kept and aside from 02/24 its been very reliably arbitraged to be within the 2% ratio that the SEC prefers… until the day of the halts on OZON and YNDX. Close today will mark the first time in all this volatility that the ETF wasn’t brought to within 2% within 24 hours. I’m definitely thinking at this point that what we’re seeing is literally the result of the arbitrage process being cut off and that RSX will begin to come down significantly once OZON and YNDX resume trading.
The flip side of this is that it confirms that we should absolutely cut OZON the second it unhalts. As I explained in trading-floor (for those that don’t know), ETF prices are brought down by APs (ETF market makers essentially) buying the stocks that the ETF contains and “selling them” to the ETF itself. This means that when OZON unhalts, it will likely gap down significantly, but then arbitraging RSX will almost certainly bring in a wave of buying pressure as RSX is currently almost 50-60% above NAV.
yeah, sounds about right, but don’t forget that there are some stocks included that are trading on MOEX, which should also be available in this case.
I have a strong feeling that until MOEX is closed, this is a relatively slow but steady decline, after that it should close the gap for sure, and who knows after.
Edit: and because of this, if OZON opens before MOEX, it may actually dumps similarly to London stocks, as you cant actually redeem your certificate for anything, making OZON on NASDAQ risky for purchase
You’re absolutely right. They wouldn’t be able to fully arb until MOEX is open. Yeah only option right now is to slowly short the thing down.
I’m wondering if this wouldn’t end up causing a delisting somehow.
If that happens, and London stocks don’t recover before then, that’s a huge win for puts
Averaged down.
Just trying to wrap my head around the RSX situation. If we aren’t expecting this to go below $7 (maybe I’m understanding this wrong. Please feel free to correct me here), would a good trade be opening a bear put spread with an ATM put and selling to open a 7p?
Its NAV is now below 7, there’s no way of knowing “where its going”. I don’t do spreads so I can’t personally comment on them.
Where are you seeing and intraday NAV? I can only find one at Morningstar for $5.70.
