Daily Comments
Had a busy day with personal stuff so I was kinda mute, however I did make some plays in between and continued to feel good about what the stream is bringing to the community.
Play Breakdowns
SPY
We held SPY puts over the weekend betting on a gap down… and that didn’t quite work out. However, because we hadn’t gone in very heavy, I was able to average down my position and end up decently green when the catalysts we were betting on originally ended up coming through in the form of a mistakenly translated statement from the Ukrainian President. Our average down was off technicals (double top on previous resistance) and ended up bearing near flawless and we cut on the lowest point of one of the deepest drops of the day for around over a 50% gain. Currently out of SPY waiting for the market to show its cards on a direction.
XOM
Given the climate, I was going to make a play on XOM based off a recovery and transition into a bear flag pattern. I missed my entry at that point earlier in the day, but for those that caught it, it was +23%. Once SPY started tanking off the Ukraine comments however, I noticed that XOM hadn’t started popping off yet. War in Ukraine will lead to higher prices oil prices and thus raise the value of XOM stock. Since SPY was dropping off the rumor, it made sense that XOM would likely respond too. I took entries as soon as I dumped my SPY puts and was up +15% at close. Holding these betting on more Russia/Ukraine rumors or actions further inflating the stocks value. At this specific point, I chose to hold a position in XOM over SPY because its logically safer.
- If FED news is bullish - XOM pumps with SPY
- If FED news is bearish - XOM remains somewhat steady as its waiting for Russia/Ukraine catalysts
- If Russia invades Ukraine - XOM pumps while SPY dumps
- If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine - XOM may sell off but can be saved by SPY’s pump
This is a massive oversimplification, but its how I’ll sometimes weigh whether or not I should place bets on SPY or play something correlated. In this scenario, I think XOM is probably a better bet than trying to guess SPY’s direction.
Closing Thoughts
Getting into the swing of things this week. Making some changes to the stream in that it’ll only be available via YouTube tomorrow to hopefully cut down on some of the lag I was experiencing on the VM side. Schedule is now clear so hopefully going to get to be a little more active tomorrow.
Stats on Account
Today: +21%
Week: +21%
Challenge Overall: +44%