ADBE Adobe - 4Q ER Play Dec 16

What this is: Earnings Report play guide on $ADBE.
Read: Swing Trades / Riding Trends


  • ADOBE is one of the tech-related gainers since the start of the covid19 pandemic.
  • They are also finally showing signs of weakness in the Weekly, Daily, and 1hour charts.
  • Although they beat 3Q ER, they still fell -4.79% the next day, and all the way down to -14.53% before bouncing.
  • Looking to see if they will finally break down further starting next week.

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Here, it’s measured they rose to a total 174.37% since the crash of March 2020.
If we look before that, then they still gained 80.87% at the peak of Nov 2021.
1hour chart shows a clear Head and Shoulders pattern that broke down last week.
Weekly chart is that of a clear Double Top.

Here’s a report from 2019 which resonates their success these past 2 years:

Now though, they are overvalued like the rest of the tech giants, and needs a good correction to be sustainable moving forward.

What’s giving them the tenacity is their lineup of products that most independent media producers rely on:

Their photography (photoshop and lightroom) and All-In Creative Cloud apps are 2 of their best sellers.
They also have Acrobat Pro as a separate subscription.
With the addition of Stock Images and Videos, it’s a real solid digital production line.
The only thing missing from them is music.

Their direct competitors are not as comprehensive.
For video production, there’s Sony and AVID.
For photography and illustration, there’s Corel and free stuff (some from camera manufacturers themselves).
For PDF, of course we have DOCU.
None of these are all-in-one solutions like Adobe.

Stock Market competition is comprised of the other tech giants:

Insider Trades Q3…

Earnings Whispers…

“Adobe Systems Incorporated is one of the largest software companies in the world. They offer a line of products and services used by creative professionals, marketers, knowledge workers, application developers, enterprises and consumers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content and experiences across personal computers, devices and media. They market and license their products and services directly to enterprise customers through their sales force and to end users through app stores and their own website at They offer many of their products via a Software-as-a-Service model or a managed services model as well as through term subscription and pay-per-use models. They also distribute certain products and services through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, independent software vendors, retailers, software developers and original equipment manufacturers.”

Barchart Opinion Ai…

How this can be played…

ADBE stopped bleeding yesterday and bounced a good +7%.

  1. If it gets rejected at the previous support line of 659.19, another downtrend should commence that may last for a few days before ER next week, Dec 16 AH.
    If it gets past that resistance line, then it may try for 679.90 again and most likely get rejected there, then trade sideways for a bit.

  2. Post ER, this is where it’s safest to play since we’ll know the reaction of the market.

  3. Gamble with ER? I would say nearest OTM PUTs 2weeks post-ER expiry will be safer than calls–unless there’s obvious influential news published on the contrary.
    For bigger players, maybe consider Iron Butterfly as a strategy.
    For smaller accounts, I don’t recommend it unless it breaks most support lines prior to ER.

Support: 641, 633, 626, 609, 597, 589.
Resistance: 656, 659, 663, 671, 679.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.
Chime in on the comments below.


Twitter sentiment is neutral. The Likefolio owners are selling theta for this earnings. 3/4 past ER moves have been flat.

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ADBE is showing a divergence from SPY? showing some pretty nice strength today with the markets generally being red

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thanks for the inputs, guys.
@Iceburn brought this to attention as well. clearly SPY correlated…

The 1hour chart tells this story.
Yellow band is SPY.

It’s looking bullish on the Daily too.

So, watch the volume. This might just be trading sideways for a bit.
Look the volume and possible supply redistribution.
I’m thinking it will still go down post ER, but this season has been quite the roulette.
MACD and Signal lines might just have the golden cross tomorrow, on the Daily candles.
Selling pressure on the MACD histogram has been easing out.
Squeeze Indicator is hinting at price battles in this range. So far the pressure is still on to the sell side.
Looking at the Daily Squeeze histogram bars, the pressure release might be massive–when comparing to most recent previous ER back in Sept 21.

I would take profits on ER if I have them, then ride the trend the day after.
Of course I’d make sure what the trend is in PreM, post ER.
Previous ER’s downtrend lasted 14 Daily bars.

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Well if this is any indication, ADBE should rise after ER. SA has posted an article that ADBE downgraded at JPM:

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you were correct. ADBE down more than 8% on ER. just barely met expectations but guidance for Q1 FYY22 is lower than estimates:

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Thanks, bud. If it breaks 552.14, it’s a royal flush.

Daily chart…

Barchart Support and Resistances update…

Broken support lines become new resistance points.


Chart update…

Adobe has fallen under it’s last support of 552.14.
The next price to look at will be 525.
Congrats again on to those of you who played this since before and after ER.

Admins might close this thread today.
I will be watching it again for next their next ER.
Happy Holidays!


Recovered from that fall below 552, still expecting it to fall further next week or is it consolidating at this range you think? Thanks for the input.

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Let me try and address this one last time before the thread is archived…

Based on the results we got, reading the Daily candles was correct for the previous ER.
That said, looking at the Weekly candles, we get a different story.

  • We still got time until the next Fib zone starts at the end of May, or beginning of June 2022.
  • This looks to me like at 3-peak pattern, and we just or are just about done with the 2nd peak.
  • I’m looking at the support line of 536.88 for a bounce.
  • Range is crazy volatile for each candle, so I won’t be surprised to see a crazy jump after it decides on a bottom.
  • It may continue bearish for the rest of December and trade sideways for 2 days or so, before ramping back up again.
  • Supply has increased due to selling pressure and I don’t see any buying pressure anytime soon.
  • When and IF the stock decides to bounce, sideways trading around 673.88 will spell weakness and possible immediate sell-off once again.

Adobe should have events lined up starting on January 2022, so watch out for those.
Partnerships and acquisitions may also prove bullish in the short term.
Their biggest competition right now are platforms like TikTok and Instagram that provide quick built-in video-editing tools on mobile devices–negating the need for 3rd party apps.

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