Wanted to start a placeholder here so I could add more organized thoughts over the weekend… Quick summary: Phase 3 top line data for their drug targeting alcohol use disorder is expected anyday now. Data is officially locked as of late June and CEO stated “mid July” for results to be public. They had promising results from their phase 2 data. Good data here could potentially lead to an FDA approval in a market where current therapeutics are a disaster and there is a huge unmet need. Company financials look fine but I would still expect dilution if they get a big spike on good news. It’s a low float stock for what that’s worth and it’s trading near its 52 week low. Again, I’ll put together a more organized post this weekend when I get some free time but wanted some more eyes on it to get some feedback.
THIS IS A VERY RISKY PLAY. Please read that last sentence over… now read it again and say it out loud… Just as we recently saw with hgen (RIP) this will tank under a dollar if top line data is a miss. However the upside risk/reward is quite attractive. Full disclosure I’m playing aug 2.5/5c, no shares… My plan is hold options through data release (gamble size) then buy a huge share position for a long term hold on a pull back (if data is good). Again, this is a very risky biotech play, do not risk more than you are willing to lose.
today announced that it plans to report topline results from the Company’s ONWARD™ Phase 3 clinical trial on Wednesday, July 20, 2022. The Company plans to host a conference call at 1 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday (dial-in instructions to follow).
Im not sure what to make of this situation. I work in healthcare so I tend to focus on a lot of promising biotech/pharma tickers that have upcoming catalysts… I’ve been in quite a few now, probably too many, over the past couple years and this is the first time I’ve seen PR from a company giving the exact date and time for the release of their trial results in a PR. Typically if data is bad the company releases it late in the week or during extended hours trading… If data is good it’s usually dropped early in the week or right before market opens. There are always exceptions but it seems more often than not this is how the biotech plays I’ve followed play out… the way I see it there are 3 ways this plays out now: 1.) the data is bad and they are doing what I’ve never seen any other biotech company do and explain the bad results as they are released in a conference call (I don’t think this is likely) if results were bad I’d imagine they would have just released the data and made a statement after the fact explaining their next steps for the company. 2.) the results are mixed and they are explaining why another P3 trial is needed. 3.) the results are stellar and they are trying to bring in attention/investors before Wednesday data read out. The optimist in me would love it to be the latter but realistically it’s either situation 2 or 3… if situation 2 then I think the SP will stay flat at best or sell off. If situation 3 then I think we will see a significant increase in SP… with all being said my play remains the same I’m holding both aug 2.5/5c (an amount I’m willing to let burn if this doesn’t go my way) and will enter shares after the data if it is promising, no bag holding for me… GL if you enter this play, it remains high risk but at least we won’t have to wait much longer to see it play out one way or the other…
You mapped out the potential scenarios well, i was surprised as well by the announcement of the announcement. My bet is mixed results, but will continue to hold my small position.
I searched as best I could to find an example where a company released a PR for a PR just days away and couldn’t find anything. Extremely redundant, however the SP is running a bit today in anticipation for tomorrow. From past experience I believe the results will get released premarket tomorrow then they will address those results in the conference call tomorrow at 1pm. I increased my call position very slightly this morning and took a few of the 2.5p as a hedge on that mid day pump.
The press release reads much better than it is. The study did not demonstrate statistical significance for very heavy drinkers with Alcohol Use Disorder compared to placebo. This is the money maker indication, hence we see a heavy drop pre-market.
Yup, I suppose that’s why they did the weird announcement of the announcement. They are probably going to try and spin it in their favor Or make it look better than it is. Missed statistical significance doesn’t lie and I don’t see them getting any kind of approval now. I’ll listen to the conference call today to see what they have to say but I’m getting out of my positions if I can right at open…
Sat through part of the conference call, turned it off as soon as the speaker started talking enthusiastically about how the drug was great but didn’t show stat. significance with the placebo and for some reason he was excited about the possibility. Seemed like it was situation 2 from my outline above. All fluff and trying to spin bad news, out of my full position both calls and puts, deleting this ticker off my watchlist…
Lmao doesn’t surprise me one bit. I saw he was talking last night about how he thought the trial was going to fail. Glad I had hedged my call position yesterday for sure. It’ll probably drop under a dollar now
