Affirm in a downward channel

Affirm has been in a downward channel since it’s ATH in November 2021. I believe it could be a nice little put play, especially with the way the market is in a downward spiral. I would pick up late Feb or early March 50 or 40 Puts, to help with theta. If it breaks that 46 fib level, it could cascade all the way down to 33. You could enter now or wait until it possibly bounces back to 73.65 resistance.


Sitting this one out because it’s against my religion.

Lol real talk though, earnings are on 2/10 and the way tickers have been reacting lately, I think/hope they will gain back a lot of ground. They bounced off their 52W low that they haven’t seen since their post-IPO drop last May, and since then they have expanded their offerings and market presence tremendously. They’ll be reporting numbers from holiday season.

I think the bear case for 2/10 is that the revenue bar will be set higher based on their guidance, and that there are rising rates of credit delinquency. The latter was true last quarter also, but it can always be worse.

FYI - Jan CPI data is released in 2/10 as well, good or bad. But my anecdotal experience does nothing give me warm fuzzy feelings about it.


Kryptek brought up an interesting point last night in VC in that PYPL would be a good comparable to AFRM given that PYPL also does BYPL and is a POS option at the checkout line like AFRM. If you looked at PYPL’s latest ER their transaction volume is down.

So Kryptek’s reasoning is that people aren’t yet out of money enough to use BYPL. But he feels that later on in the year, when the money (that the government has pumped into the economy) starts to run out, BYPL companies will start to see growing use. Short-term bearish long-term bullish in summary.