Late day update. GME shorts are still being held substantially OTM over the threshold we usually look for clearing at:
AMC is probably drifting down because GME is trading largely sideways, however, should GME start popping off, we can assume AMC will resume its bullish run. I’m taking this opportunity to average down and amass “full positions”. At this point everyone should be taking April 8th expiring options and later. We don’t know if or when something might happen so being same is paramount.
However, as for this trade, at the moment the “reason” for the trade is still valid. Not every day is green.
Clarifying my cut on AMC. It broke down through the support I was watching and SPY is struggling to maintain its upward momentum. I cut just before the large candles down, giving myself time to collect some contracts again if I feel differently. AMC is a rough trade because while it moves really well, its also not in any sort of real squeeze territory at the moment like GME. So while GME is only down 5%, AMC is currently down 10%.
I’m picking the horse with more of a catalyst behind it. AMC is still a good scalp target, but if I’m going to be in one or the other, its GME at this moment.
For GME to remain bullish, you want to see it stay over 164, and ideally back to 176, this week.
For AMC’s bullish case, it has to remain over 23, and ideally back to 27 to keep n’sync (dirty pop) with GME.
Keep following Conqueror’s consistent updates and callouts here.
Both have entered Sell area on my 15min measure.
Both are still bullish on the 1hour candles.
So far, GME’s options chains remain somewhat bullish up to April 22 OpEx…
GME is a stock of habit. While it’s one of the most unpredictable, once the event that is hard to predict happens, the follow-up is pretty routine. GME loves making second jumps:
Above are two examples, almost always after a big run, you’ll get a second run within weeks. This goes back the entirety of the last year, but these two were between 8/24 (Tuesday) and 9/9 (Thursday) which was a span of two weeks and 11/3 (Wednesday) and 11/19 (Friday) again a span of two weeks (with the same offset of days oddly being 16 days). GME likes to downtrend for roughly 5 days and then make a second run at the high.
So if we assume peak at Monday 3/28 we’d be looking for another run at peak on 4/13.
Does this all sound like nonsense? Good because it is. This is idiot science.
As for the “fundamentals”, GME is still holding shorts down significantly and we have yet to see significant clearing of old positions. The average short is still in around $99 and is down roughly 40% on investment:
DTC calculations also remain above 1 day, mind hovering at 3.0 days.
So, I think GME might be near bottom in this range and I think its possible it hovers here for a little bit before making another run at $200. This could change of course if SPY begins to rally so keeping an eye on the market overall is key.
AMC will follow GME most likely, so if GME goes AMC shouldn’t be too far behind.
Just re-posting from Discord. This is my speculation for tomorrow on the 510 calls Conq currently holds.
So… in regards to the 510 calls on GME… Obviously I’m only predicting IV based on a dumb website (option strat), but I’m guessing that that the calls Conq have will at least be $2.00 a contract RIGHT at open if it holds somewhere around 190. It’s possible this can be higher since GME retail really likes to dump everything into the option that’s at the tippity top. I think there’s an actual way to calculate what IV would be for these options tomorrow, but I’m not educated in pinpointing potential IV during AH… Really rough estimate here.
Currently (from current IV for today), the 510 would only be at $1.00 a contract at 190 for Friday. On Monday, that’s $0.40 a contract… So keep that in mind if IV doesn’t change as much as I’m thinking.
This IV will fall VERY QUICKLY if Gamestop goes down or the Market decides to pull it down with it. Tomorrow is almost definitely going to be a sell at open. Holding throughout the day puts on too much risk.
I’ve seen mention of a GME stock split. Im not in on this so not looked too much into it. But with how retail likes to participate in this stock seems like a smart move for them to make if they do.
GME managed to get back inside its bounding box–this helps put pressure on any shorts that haven’t yet covered.
AMC did not recover back into its own bullish ramp, but it did manage to close above 23, which listed 4,927 Open Contracts.
25 would have been great, but saving Max Pain is good too…
There is a lot of chatter in the GME spheres that this stock split in the form of a stock dividend will flush out the naked shorts because they have to pay up the stock dividend, just like shorts have to pay up the cash dividend. And because this dividend is in the form of stocks, and the amount of naked shorts is allegedly much higher than what is out there, it is supposed to lead to an epic squeeze as said naked shorts have to buy up shares from the open market to make good on their dividend obligation.
Would anyone with knowledge of the intricacies of how stock dividends and naked short selling interact be able to shed light on this please?
Edit: Perhaps this is 2am conspiracy theories getting the better of me here, but wondering… is it possible that the spike we just saw was the short covering for this impending stock dividend? After all, “someone always knows.”
