AMD - Long hold stock/LEAP play

The target audience for this is those considering to put their longer term investment in something that may be more profitable than something like SP500. It is obvious that this is a higher risk for higher reward play.
Here are the main points for AMD.

    AMD: 51.28
    NVDA: 85.40
    INTC: 5.86
    AMD is undervalued compared to NVDA. This is not a huge secret, but it is worth mentioning that while NVDA may hold the crown, AMD is right behind them in product positioning and eager to take the crown back at any moment NVDA shows weakness. GPU market is incredibly low on the supply side due to the boom in cryptomining/supply shortages and it bears mentioning that every GPU gets sold out regardless of brand.

On the face value, INTC looks like it’s way undervalued. However, looking at the price history, you can tell INTC has been a dividend focused stock for last 5 yrs.

  1. Intel is lagging in innovation and let AMD gain on them in 5 yrs
    Due to myriad of challenges posed by mismanagement/fab delays/competitions popping up, Intel really let itself slide in the last 5 yrs while others caught up and managed to outdo Intel in terms of price/perf. AMD released Zen arch back in 2017 and AAPL has really up’d their M1 line enough to wean off x86.

  2. AMD is poised to take Intel’s server market share. Latest Meta deal is only going to be in AMD’s favor.

  3. NVDA ARM acquisition still under EU competition investigation

The probe, announced by the Commission on Wednesday, is the latest setback for the chip companies who have already said the deal is unlikely to be completed before the initial deadline of March 2022.

This merger may or may not happen in 2022, but all we know is that the merger is still very far away, and NVDA is in no shape or form to release a competitive product in the CPU segment.

  1. Practically owns console market (minus Switch)
    It bears mentioning both latest PS, XBOX use AMD APU.
    Xbox, PCs and gaming drive AMD and Microsoft's revenues | PCWorld

Revenue in AMD’s Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue was $1.28 billion, up 176 percent year over year. The vast majority of that came from the game consoles that use AMD’s embedded chips: the Sony PlayStation 5, and Microsoft Xbox Series S and X.

  1. Apple is king of perf/power but vertical integration means no direct competition
    Apple’s M1 Max line of chips are no short of impressive in the computing department. It peaked in perf/power, and only thing holding it back is price and vertical integration forcing you to buy into Apple’s ecosystem. Competition from Apple may come way later and there will be loads of buyers hesitant to make the switch.
  2. GPUs out of stock everywhere (almost)
    The supply shortage means that GPUs are selling like hotcakes. Just cursory research leads to most GPUs barring the most expensive tier and ebay scalps are unavailable to buy. CEO Dr. Lisa Su has stated that supply shortage will continue until 2024 but will continually improve over time.
    AMD Video Cards -
  3. Xilinx acquisition means huge amalgation of chip design talents
    If you’ve paid attention in acq/merger in semiconductors, you would’ve known about Intel acquiring Altera. I assume AMD acquiring Xilinx is very similar. For Intel, since acquiring in 2015, their PSG division sales grew, but margin went down. All in all, not a bad change overall.

Disclaimer I own AMD shares and leaps. Play at your own risk and adjust position. I am not responsible for your entry/exit points.


Appreciate this! I picked up LEAPs yesterday and plan to add more on red days.


Either NVDA is overvalued or AMD is undervalued (and I’m voting the latter). Nice DD, I think sub 140 or 135-ish is a great entry but let’s see how it performs today.

I bought some Jan 160s today off this idea and made 24% on the mid day run-up.

Gonna get some longer calls on the next dip!

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Nothing but faith in Lisa. Wishing now I held on to my 150 strikes for 06/22. When taking profits backfires.

On the topic of NVDA and it being used as a case comparison for AMD, I think sentiment around NVDA is going to be growing in young adults/teens. My big reasoning for that probably sounds silly, but their lead marketing manager has been becoming a very popular streamer (Atrioc) over the last year and a half. He’s a very close friend of Ludwig, arguably a top 10 streamer over the last year, and has catapulted himself into a higher tier on twitch. He brings a lot of things to his stream discussing marketing and comparing companies here and there (mostly on marketing Mondays) and has slowly pushed NVDA into that world. Other streamer friends have joked around about it or even some have bought in on NVDA stock, but I do think this will have a positive but hard to see effect on the demographic that NVDA/AMD focus on.

I made some lines because I am bored. Today and yesterday was pretty red day for Tech in general, but AMD perhaps was more redder. Possibly a buy opportunity but who knows (I’m retarded). We could see a bounce up from the bottom wedge or perhaps we’ll see a bigger correction down to parallel bottom ~130. ~120 might be unlikely to hit unless some huge negative catalyst news breaks.

Quite a bounce from the bottom wedge. This only solidifies my conviction further. We could be in for a bull run. Speaking of Omicron variant, AMD hardly fell while SPY literally crumbled 2%, but gained even more as SPY was on recovery run today.

1 Like some news from today.

had a small discussion about this in chat. knew I wanted to buy leaps on AMD but never had the funds until now. gonna look for a red day and get in on this.

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This is good for XLNX holders but is also good for AMD in the longish term

There is a possibility for good news, she might speak or continue to speak on the merger.

The OI is jacked for January 21. From my understanding it’s a bullish sentiment. There hasn’t been bad news for AMD.

AMD has fallen for the past week so I recommend waiting for another red day EOD and buying if you want to get in. These are for long term plays tho at least 3+ month I’d recommend. I don’t know if this is the bottom. It could still go down but this has been a pretty big pullback.

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Jan 4 is CES, probably new reveal about 3d cache for cpu, low end gpus, and zen 4 news.

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I expect a gap down possibly before CES because XLNX merger is track to be done by EOY. Then with CES we could see a big rally back to ATH. As previous CES have catapulted it up.

wtf are those lines?


I wish I knew

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