AMD - Upcoming CES Catalyst

[Iloveyou]

Hi All. AMD has an upcoming potential catalyst. I thought it would be quite bullish for them, but I reviewed the charts from previous product announcements and found a considerable ‘sell the news’ effect upon release of previous announcements.

Lots of people have AMD positions currently or are interested in taking AMD positions, so I figured I’d do a little research into what we could expect in the next few days.

DD follows below. Hope it helps some and please contribute with bear cases, bull cases, and more research.

Background

On 12/13/21 at 9 AM ET, AMD announced they would be holding a product premiere event on 1/4/22 at 10 AM ET. This will occur at CES 2022’s media pre-show.

Online sources are a little conflicted on what they will announce - I’ve seen references to:

• New mobile APUs that combine the Zen 3 chipset with RDNA2 powered integrated graphics (Zen 3+) and accompanying prebuilt and custom PC/laptops with these.
• Refreshed Zen 3 desktop processors (Zen 3+ featuring 3D V-Caches)
• Next generation of CPUs (Zen4 Raphael) and graphics cards (RDNA 3) - thanks @Tuanathans
• New entry-level RDNA 2 graphics cards
• New gaming tech to automatically sharpen graphics - thanks @Tuanathans
• New gen of Threadripper (Threadripper 5000 PRO) chips

If you’re not well-read on nerdy computer shit, AMD and Intel are the two big (and largely, only) manufacturers for server, desktop and laptop processors. AMD also has a graphics card line “Radeon” . NVIDIA cards are more well-regarded than AMD Radeon cards, but AMD has dominated the processor landscape in all categories for roughly 2-3 years now as they’ve been able to meet and exceed Intel at a lower price point. This is especially important as enterprise cloud computing become vital parts of every business.

This isn’t included in my DD, but keep an eye open for Intel and news about their 12th generation processors and upcoming graphics cards as well.

Analysis

Previous Events

Event	Description	Press Release Date	Press Release
CES 2021	Release of Zen 3 powered Laptops, TPU efficient desktop processors, and Threadripper PRO for the retail market	1/12/21 at 12:00 PM ET	AMD Announces World’s Best Mobile Processors¹ In CES 2021 Keynote :: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Event	Description	Press Release Date	Press Release
Where Gaming Begins: Ep. 2	Release of RDNA2 powered graphics cards - "Radeon RX 6000”/”Big Navi” (yes, Navi)	10/28/20 at 1:00 PM ET	AMD Unveils Next-Generation PC Gaming with AMD Radeon™ RX 6000 Series – Bringing Leadership 4K Resolution Performance to AAA Gaming :: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Event	Description	Press Release Date	Press Release
Where Gaming Begins: Ep. 1	Release of Zen 3 desktop CPUs. I feel this is the “big one” because Zen 3 was a huge deal for AMD.	10/8/20 at 12:30 PM ET	AMD Launches AMD Ryzen 5000 Series Desktop Processors: The Fastest Gaming CPUs in the World :: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

My Thoughts

Reviewing these three events, I will be looking to see if AMD runs tomorrow (Thursday, 12/30) in anticipation of CES 2022 and these announcements. If it does, I think we’re good to see a run-up prior to the CES event on 1/4/22. Observing these past three events, I will also be looking to grab AMD puts prior to the CES event as there is a clear “sell the news” effect that has taken place in prior events of lesser or similar importance.

Additional Research Opportunities

We can beef up our conclusions by reviewing more events of AMD’s, though I do believe that sentiment is a large part of AMD’s position and AMD has only recently took over Intel’s position as the market leader. If we go back too far I don’t think they’d be as “apples-to-apples”.

TA / EWT Analysis on AMD’s current price movement and what we could expect running into Jan 4.

AMD Earnings are later in January - January 25. I did not want to make this an ER play at this time, but it should remain on our radar because we all love to be buttfucked by earnings plays.

A Duck

References and More Reading

https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd/new-ryzen-cpus-radeon-gpus-ces-2022

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-ces-2022-ryzen-radeon-keynote

https://wccftech.com/amd-teases-ces-2022-we-are-not-letting-the-foot-off-the-gas-pedal-were-full-speed-ahead/

https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-to-introduce-radeon-super-resolution-rsr-technology-that-works-in-all-games

https://www.xda-developers.com/amd-zen-4-ryzen-unveiled-ces-2022/

[tedro]

Any concerns with AMD and others announcing they will not attend the in-person CES?

AMD, P&G join others in opting out of CES event on Omicron fears | Reuters

[Iloveyou]

A little bit, but I figure that many others have canceled in favor of an online presence and they’re still holding the virtual pre-conference announcement for media so I still expect the “sell the news” pattern to occur.

[Tuanathans]

r/AMD_Stock - Catalyst Timeline - 2021 H2

These are the possible catalysts for AMD

[Iloveyou]

So obviously SPY done did a thing yesterday (12/30) and so did AMD. Still watching to see what the ticker does.

[Iloveyou]

'sup AMD warriors

The moment of truth is almost upon us. If you were following along, AMD took a little bit of a poopie last week thanks to SPY and had a bit of a run today (+4.4%). SPY and tech did well today and that was a large part of the reason why, but there were points where SPY was tanking and AMD held strong.

The moment of truth is tomorrow (1/4) at 10 AM ET. I expect this will be a good event for AMD, especially as we get pummeled by Omnicron and the threat of more restrictions are on the table or being actively implemented. The observed effect is that AMD will put out a press release along with the live event and algos will “sell the news”.

The mystery is when this press release will go out. If we look at the previous events from the DD:

• Where Gaming Begins: Ep. 2 - Event at 12 PM, press release at 1 PM
• CES 2021 - Event at 11 AM ET, press release at 12 PM
• Where Gaming Begins: Ep. 1 - Event at 12 PM, press release at 12:30 PM

Based on this, I’m hoping the press release is on or after 10 AM. I will be furiously f5ing their investors page so that I don’t miss the release. If you like to f5 things too, the link is News & Events :: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD).

I am looking forward to seeing how this plays out tomorrow. Good luck all!

[Iloveyou]

Movement was much better than I expected on this. It appears NVDA is up next and they tend to be correlated, so there may continue to be downward price movement. I came out about 250% up and closed my position.

[greydoge]

Like clockwork! :LeoCheers:

[syd]

Closed my position for 120% gain. Thanks for the great play!!

[macromicrodick]

Loved this DD and trade even though I didn’t play it. I agree that there is more downside risk to AMD. Supply-chain issues haven’t resolved (thanks, omicron), the CES was a flop, and NVDA and Intel and are eating into their market share. Couple that with the macro events like increases in treasury yields and hawkish takes from the Fed, this could go down further.

Been working on a crude pattern analysis and AMD just crossed the EMA9 and EMA21 on the dailies for the second time in 6 weeks. Want to see if AMD can fit into this pattern and maybe expect a 15-20% drop in the next couple of months. Earnings expected on the 26th could blow it all to shit though if they surprise the street. Great job!

[macromicrodick]

Building in ILoveYou’s DD, i took a small position on 2/18 115p. They’re up over 25%. AMC had every opportunity to outshine NVDA and INTC during the CES and didn’t. XYLX merger looks to go through, and even with the arbitrage, is something of a nothingburger to eth market. Tech has been struggling since the release of the FOMC. 10-Yr Treasury Yields are at 52 week highs. I think on Monday, should the 10-Yr continue to climb, big tech will be shaky up until Wednesday morning when the CPI numbers are released. Food prices, gas prices, shipping, have maintained their high costs and mortgage rates are on the rise. If the puts are ITM on Tuesday afternoon I will probably sell before close.

[maybeyes]

I’ve been monitoring AMD as well and I totally agree with sentiment overall across the tech sector. Looking at the daily chart, we’re getting close to hitting the bollinger and the last major support area before it bounced back up. Next week will be interesting.

[TheMadBeaker]

According to CNBC, J Pow is supposed to give some testimony on Tuesday? Combine with the CPI on Wednesday and we could have a couple rocky days.

With rising interest rates, all the news sites are turning very bearish towards growth stocks, and in particular they have their crosshairs right on the tech industry.

However, on the flip side, semiconductors are in hot demand for everything imaginable. The short term bearish sentiment I don’t believe can outweigh the actual sales and forecasts.

[macromicrodick]

great trade, Beaker to pick up shares on AMD during the dip yesterday! At yesterday’s open, my 02/18 115p were up over 70% but when the 10-Yr Treasury Yield came back down to Earth tech recovered nicely. Even in pre-market today, the 10-Yr looks to be trading lower so the recovery for tech could continue?

Thanks for the JPow update. CNN seems to think another term could mean JPow would have confidence in tackling inflation but wth does CNN know, lol? https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/10/business/fed-powell-confirmation-hearing/index.html

I’m going to see how the markets react to his inauguration and if I don’t see a pullback in the afternoon leading up to tomorrow’s CPI numbers just might let this play out a little longer.

[maybeyes]

It bounced off that support nicely yesterday. Coming up on resistance today. Still looking fun to play if you have the stomach for it. All dependant on spy and tomorrows CPI obviously. Thanks for the update macro.

[macromicrodick]

Thanks maybeyes for posting your chart! almost broke through that 141 resistance today. Yeah, I’m going to wait it out a bit since my position is so small. I neglected the fact that from Friday to Monday there was such a historic selloff in tech that it was due for a pullback. Thought that money would be on the sidelines until tomorrow’s CPI but when they hit the bottom of people’s bands like that and the 10-Yr yield dropping almost 2% I guess that was enough of an entry point. Gonna be interesting tomorrow!

[macromicrodick]

just sold my small position of AMD for 37% profit. the reason i sold is because AMD has shown a lot of strength, even in this tumultuous market. it got a pump from Cramer, new PTs in the 155ish range, and sustained the dips better than NVDA.

with FOMC next week, ER on 02/01, SPY tanking, there are a lot of unknowns. i’m probably leaving money on the table but JB’s voice keeps ringing in my head to “take profits”! still going to be on my watchlist as i feel AMD has enough sentiment and support to be a bellweather stock for tech in general. i do think they face serious supply chain issues in first quarter/half of 2022 but long-term AMD imo is bullish.

[maybeyes]

Thanks Beaker for the heads up. AMD had a downgrade. Here's Why Piper Sandler Downgraded AMD, Slashed Price Target By 7%

[macromicrodick]

here’s an article from Zack’s on upcoming earnings. sorry for choppy screenshots couldn’t find link online:

The last line in the article is really telling for me:

“However, component shortages and supply chain constraints have hurt PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021. AMD’s top-line growth is expected to have suffered from this trend in the going-to-be-reported quarter.”