starting this to drop ideas on amazon.
I’m particularly interested in this ticker as I think it represents consumer spend the most out of all the blue chips, as they have a streaming service, aws, ecomm, and even shit like twitch.
I’d like to hear bull and bear cases on why they’d do well or poorly. I’m looking to either ride the trend into ER or set myself up after they report. Thanks guys.
Amazon has immediate gaps on both directions…
I think it will fill the nearer gap on the downside and possibly test the support line of $2,671, before confirming new sentiment.
So far, this is the weakest range AMZN has been since more than a decade ago.
IMHO, buyers won’t show up in droves again–until it’s under 2500.
Bear case: Fundamentals tells you that AMZN’s about to see what they delayed last quarter – RIVN appreciation to basically divert eyes from their heavily bleeding e-commerce. This was when RIVN was at high 60’s iirc and now it’s sitting at 32.88. Last quarter books showed AWS not nearly gaining as fast net income compared to how fast they were losing from E-Comm.
Bull case would be that e-comm bleeding would show signs of abatement, AWS profit margins improving faster, and RIVN gains realized (im not sure how this works, i haven’t seen a SEC filing or anything). And however small gains Amzn Prime Video has to gain from NFLX fallout.
ecommerce did not meet expectations if I recall on last earnings but AWS did. The way I see it is
AWS = enterprise spending
ecommerce = retail spending