Asymmetrical Risk/Reward Opportunity $OMEX

I was cruising WallstreetbetsOG (where I found this discord) and came across a write-up that I found intriguing (link below). TLDR: OMEX sued Mexico over corrupt politician not granting mining rights. ICSID sent a letter to OMEX in Oct stating the company would be receiving an award of damages in Q1 of 2024. I’ve built a nice round position of 1000 shares on the hope it pops in early 24. Random 10%+ movement today with no news. There are options but they aren’t the cheapest. Thoughts?

Interesting play. I’d never heard of the ICSID before. I’m wondering if this 3.5b settlement is practical and whether Mexico can avoid payment? Political risk certainly a consideration

I doubt they will be awarded a $3.5B settlement, but even an award of a few hundred million would reflect a multiple of their $70M valuation. I agree that political risk is very present here. My plan is to hold until I hit 200% profit, or until the ICSID award is announced.

So Mexico is a signatory to the ICSID, meaning they agree to be bound its judgments, but the last case update is from 2022:

Odyssey Marine does some deep sea exploration of shipwrecks. I’ve actually purchased some of their coins. This movement could be a new discovery or something as mundane as short covering before the end of the year… I’m simply not finding a single shred of news

Here is the 8K filing from 10/6 that mentions the receipt of the ICSID letter regarding award timing of Q1 2024. From the 8K we find this tidbit of particular interest “The letter advised the Claimant that the Tribunal is well advanced in the drafting of the Award and expects to issue the Award in the first quarter of 2024. ICSID also informed the Claimant that it would be duly notified of any change to the timing estimate provided.” Volume for the week will probably crest 2M, which is 10% of shares outstanding and a volume level only seen once previously in the past 3 years (Jun 2022). My cost basis is well nearing $3 since I’ve acquired my position by selling CSPs.

If this is true, why is the stock price / mkt cap still so low relative to the award amount? Does the market think its possible the case will continue to drag out beyond Q1 2024?

That is a possibility. I believe the catalyst event of the award being announced will force the market to revalue the company; even if the full award amount isn’t valued because of risk, there will have to be some adjustment.