ATNF - 180 Life Sciences Corp. is anticipating final results for their treatment for Dupuytren’s Disease in Q4 2021.
ATNF is currently trading at a marketcap of 173.19M at time of writing. As noted in their presentation for their treatment, there is a 4.5B market in the USA and EU for the treatment. I think that positive results in Q4 should be a major catalyst for the stock. See source link below.
The current stock price is $5.16, and a floor of ~$5.00 appears to have been established. We can see that ATNF was trading around $10 back in June of this year with a 52-wk high of $13.05. You know how it is… gaps tend to fill.
Position: 22 x January 10c calls
(I might bump this up to 40 or 50 calls)
I’m also in this play. Thought the announcement of the new COO seemed pretty bullish:
He is known as a consummate dealmaker with a demonstrated history of prospecting, evaluating, structuring and closing transactions that augment both organizational and shareholder value, as well as a persuasive negotiator…
With his sound understanding of pipeline development, commercial assessment and go-to-market strategies, I believe he will add meaningful value to our efforts to bring novel drugs that fulfill unmet needs to market
Reading this, it seems like they’ve brought a COO in who will be able negotiate deals for products that ATNF are developing. Anyone more familiar with the field, is there any reason they would do this unless they were confident that the product will be approved?
Fibonacci has some good points but I can go in depth after reviewing the actual Phase 2a. I’m not as bearish as they are, mostly because I understand the underlying biology a bit more from a cellular level and I think they’re more concerned about the trial design. For instance, they’re indicating that clinically-significant levels of Abs were only detected in 1 patient in the highest dose cohort, however from personal experience working in this area, I think those levels are fairly arbitrary and can vary highly between patients and the levels established as “clinically significant” aren’t some sort of golden rule. Additionally, clinically-significant elevated Abs may not be as relevant depending on the mechanism of action at 2 weeks.
I’m not an expert in this specific disease but coincidentally I am an expert to some degree in fibrosis and regulation of such via the conversion of myofibroblasts. I’d have to really dig into the disease, their in vitro findings, and this 2a data to understand if these results truly are worrisome, but given that this study was published like 3 years ago, they got the go ahead for their 2b/3 trial, and the primary clinical markers (and more relevant to some degree) of SMA and pro-collagen levels were hit in a dose-dependent manner (indicative of a true hit on the mechanism of action) give me some optimism. I am a bit concerned about the nodule not decreasing in size or stiffness and functional outcomes (the true proof of if a therapy is going to be effective) but again, I’d need to read up about the disease a bit more, and also the market (what’s available, those outcomes, etc).
That said, I’m probably not going to have enough time before the keynote presentation. I will say I’ve seen keynotes at conferences presenting topline clinical data that are negative - it happens, especially with big trials in a field that people are following, so the fact that this is going to be presented doesn’t give me much faith that the results have to be good, although they’ll generally try to spin it. Likewise, I’ve seen data that they’ve spun as good and in the Q&A they get eviscerated. This is likely a total gamble position for me but I’m intrigued. If the data are good, I’d expect a bump 12/1. However, with pharma plays, the real big catalyst would be an eventual FDA approval, which would take many months to hit.
That aside, I think another post on reddit talked about a potential gamma squeeze. IF the setup were there, then a bump 12/1 could be that catalyst, but I don’t actually see an amazing setup but I haven’t looked into it much. I’ll probably take a small gamble position on 12/17s to see if there’s a bump and any sort of ramp, but that’s contingent on good data, which to me, is still a bit of a gamble itself.