Started a position (AAPR22 180P) as China Eastern Airlines has a good reputation in terms of safety and to me the accident is either intentionally or a serios technical defect which could impact other boings 737 too. Even if both engines are off, the plan doesn’t drop like stone out of the air.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/comments/tjhqgn/buy_ba/ someone dropped this gem today. could be hearsay so take with NaCl. @Genti @UrbainFabre
I thought a 12 point drop was an overreaction myself and clearly so did the market since the dip was at least partially bought up. The news post I originally saw said a 737, not a 737Max. I didn’t change any of my long positions, except I bought back the short leg of my spread for something like 55% gains. Will watch to see what happens and sell again to open to pick up more theta.
3 Likes
Not to come across as completely cold, I think this is a terrible event and feel horrible for the families of the people on board, but this is exactly what I was betting on too. Really hope there’s some validity to all that, if the words ‘Pilot Error’ hit the news and/or it isn’t a MAX, back to $190 it is. Toss in a military announcement and breaching $200 will be in the cards.
Some astrology, on the daily a ‘hanging man’ formed which should signal an uptrend (thanks Webull commenter, take that with an even bigger grain of salt lol). Gonna be searching the news every hour or so hoping to see something like that reddit post, but either way, as I said earlier, I think the actual crash is priced in with this morning’s drop and we’ll be going back up/consolidating til more news comes through, one way or the other. Nice find, thank you!
With the swings this ticker has @Genti , I think you should be able to get out of that put with profit before 4/22, though I do disagree with taking a short position today. I don’t think whatever happened with that crash will fall back on Boeing. Especially considering it’s in China, I see calling Pilot Error and docking the guy’s family’s Social Score more likely than devaluing a company they’re involved with. Obviously I could be very wrong on that, but today felt so knee jerk-ish and $185 held firm enough that I just had to go long 
Edit- Not gonna delete and reply back again like this morning, don’t know how I’m messing up replies to people. I was replying to your post @khalidad
2 Likes
I’ll take the train thanks.
Anyone have a WSJ subscription and mind transcribing? Looks like they’re pinning the 737-MAX stuff on one guy in court for wire fraud. Some more news I’ll be posting in a second too.
FAA Official Testifies Former Boeing Pilot Lied About 737 MAX - WSJ
Daily Beast so grain of salt, but it basically is saying it has to be pilot error
Bloomberg this morning, this article probably has a huge bearing on $185 holding today.
If it isn’t already announced, I think I’ll be closing some other positions to open more BA calls for the pilot error announcement. I’m taking that as a given at this point, every article does mention this doesn’t just happen, there is a possibility of software failure, but I said on TF earlier, it’s China, I think they’d say Pilot Error and go and dock the pilot’s family’s social credit score over devaluing a company they do business with, especially with the MAX launch stuff over there.
2 Likes
Closed my 3/25 call, though it looks to be on the way to test $200 :pepecelebrate: Hoping for a pullback to 187ish for reentry into April calls. News will still send this, one way or the other, so watch out for the findings of the crash. Pilot Error we push $200, Boeing parts failure or something and it drills (duh, Bubs). The way that plane crashed makes me think it was some kind of human error or even hijacking, not mechanical failure, so I’m personally still very much bullish with the same thesis
CNBC: China crash is ‘unprecedented’ given Boeing 737’s stellar safety record, says aviation analyst.
News moving in the direction I’d hoped for, and $192 holding like a champ. May not get that opportunity for a fill around $188. Gonna watch PH, but still trying to grab an April 190 or 200 call as long as BA’s under $200. Barring bad news, I feel it goes back there tomorrow, and any news saying BA wasn’t at fault? Hooo… This ticker has eyes on it now, anything positive will launch it. Still keep in mind inverse is true as well though
Set a Limit for $3.50 on 4/1 195c that just hit. Would have liked to go further out and 190c/200c, but my BP is tied up in a few other plays right now. It looked to be the best strike between 190-200 on that date, I’m confident BA touches $200 again this week, especially if more articles like the above come out…People are realizing this wasn’t a failure on BA’s part, but instead someone was the reason that plane fell. Maybe pilot, maybe hijack, but to fall straight down like that has to have been on purpose in my (nonprofessional) opinion.
Here’s to a $200 touch and reevaluation/re-entry tomorrow 
2 Likes
Another Bloomberg article, I dunno, to me they keep getting closer and closer to saying pilot error…I expect buying and uptrend to $200 to continue tomorrow
One of the black boxes were found havily damaged. No real info aside from that…seeing a dip premarket, today could be indecisive or dip, though I’m hoping retail buys it up. Was/am hoping for that slow climb to continue, though sentiment may be shifting (and basic Lvl. 2 seems to show bigger money leaving BA…they probably aren’t, but the way it’s set up on WeBull will make people think so).
Closed my Put Position (20% loss) as i believe the bull case is robust and strong.
1 Like
Bought back into a 4/14 190c, I have 186 as support. It’s testing it, I maybe should have waited a few candles, but someone sold the bid immediately lol
E- Didn’t add my buy in, $5.85. They’re $5.30 as of 2:22pm, so currently down a bit on the 190c, but I think it’ll come back once uncertainty clears (see below 
)
2 Likes
Added a 4/14 195c @ $3.50, I like the way this is holding 185, and I believe this drop is related to uncertainty around the black box being heavily damaged. Same as the day of the crash, a drop followed by sharp rises. If/when it’s announced as human error, I see this climb, maybe even gap back up towards $190-&200. If 185 breaks I have ~$181.50 as next support, so it was risky buying here, but I see $185 holding so long as the rest of the market doesn’t shit itself in the next hour and a half
1 Like
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/trial-of-ex-boeing-pilot-in-737-max-case-goes-to-jury-11648073162
The jury found Mark Forkner not guilty on all four counts of wire fraud in what prosecutors described as a scheme to enrich Boeing by defrauding American Airlines Group Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. of tens of millions of dollars. Each count carried a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Update on the MAX lying pilot, found not guilty on all counts. I think overall we can call this bullish, or at least not bearish. This case was different than I originally thought, thought at first this was gonna be a fall guy, but that wording? In WSJ no less? Not guilty in a scheme to enrich Boeing…Good. Also note the MCAS software this trial was about was not used in the plane that crashed.
BA held firm AH and even started to approach 186.50, closed at 186.42. Big green candles into close, an opening gap type of candles This article did cause an uptick in AH, c’mon down retail.
Barring black box findings, I think BA stays flat or opens up a few bucks and possibly drifts upwards back towards $190.
Black box news finding no mechanical failure/human error and it runs past $190-$200 again, if it is on BA it’ll drop like a stone.
Still confident the crash won’t have been on BA, this play has somewhat shifted from war rumors to betting on the outcome of the crash then war rumors, the original thesis still stands too after this is all figured out (unless it’s bad and drops BA back to $160 fast). It’s been tougher for me to play this after the fat RSX/OZON slice out of my account, but I’m still able to get one or two calls a day without devotiong like half my port to it, and hopefully I can play the swings well enough to make enough to hold a stack for a war announcement.
Here’s hoping the memes run again tomorrow, really mad I couldn’t sell those calls at the peaks today, those would have bought another call, or at least would have paid twice cause I’d have re-bought back in. Oh well, AMC looking primed for another meme run so I should be good, and the other plays I took are (I think) high quality and have time on em, only thing I’m really concerned about going into tomorrow about is the banking bullshit and AMC not getting back up in value close to where I wanted to sell today. The rest I feel good about, but this isn’t my journal (gonna start one on here soon, it’s just been painful going back and seeing my dumb choices the past 2 weeks haha. I’ll transcribe it after a win when I’m feeling great, or over the weekend)
1 Like
Really great stuff. Love following this.
3 Likes
After hitting $187 in PM, BA dumped at open back to 185, probably a combination of retail misunderstanding the news on the pilot and SPY correlation (thanks for reminding to look @nano). Cut the 195c at exactly break even when it was dumping and averaged down the 190c when BA was at $185 on the dot instead, which seems to have been the move, went from 10% red to ~7.5% green on this pump
1 Like
March 24, 2022, 8:44 PM UTC
China Crash Mystery Deepens as Evidence Suggests Midair Breakup
- Apparent piece of plane found 6 miles from main wreckage
- Evidence could shed light on China Eastern jet’s fatal dive
1 Like
Well, shit. That came out right around the same time as this bad news/FUD too.
Just as we’re knocking on $190, probably going to see another dump at open. Ahh, dammit.
2 Likes
Market’s crazy, in my very short time playing this ticker typically this news would have tanked BA at open, I was extremely surprised to see yesterday’s afternoon run to $188 holding strong in PM this morning. I thought it still might dump at regular market open but wasn’t totally sure seeing that PM strength, so I set a Limit for $6.40 (a few cents short of where they would be opening at) on one, and kept an eye on the charts and finger on the sell button for the other, ended up selling pretty much immediately afterwards at $6.70 on the contract.
Could’ve squeezed some more outta these, but sell into strength, right? The candles at open were absolutely vertical and I was thinking $191 would give possibly hard resistance and a sharp, fast downturn; so I took what was already excellent profit and called it a day on BA (Cost basis was $5.35 after yesterday’s average down on the 190s).
Currently waiting on entering into another call until it hits either ~185 or 195 and seeing what news and the chart looks like then, prior to the crash I’d have rolled up to some 195c over the weekend (then again… with this SPY drop it might not be a terrible idea to take another look at 190c), but please remember this has now shifted from a potential contract/military news run up to a gamble on the outcome of the crash, play safely and accordingly
1 Like
The second black box has been found, and all passengers have been declared dead.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/26/china/china-eastern-airlines-crash-intl/index.html
1 Like