Thought its about time we get a regular thread in here regarding bitcoin/bitcoin miners since there are a few of us that tend to like to play miners.
Bitcoin as of June 24th has been holding pretty steady over $30k, with the exception of falling under it for about 5-6 hours after the news of the Fidelity Spot ETF filing not being accepted at the moment by the SEC. With BTC respecting this $30k level I’m hoping this begins to turn into a solid support level. With Bitcoin miners like MARA and RIOT (the two biggest mining companies) increasing production numbers (MARA increased production 77% last month alone, RIOT 6%) I feel like these miners will be following Bitcoin on a much tighter scale. I’m just trying to get something up like I’ve been meaning to for the last week or so, and know there are much smarter minds than i about this stuff on here so i would love for this to be the place we put daily input into these plays other than when there’s an immediate catalyst. Here are some charts showing how MARA and RIOT have moved along with BTC and RIOT the last month to somewhat show the relativity into how Miners correlate with BTC and SPY. One thing that i have noticed will happen when spy rips or has a big drop is miners will tend to correlate with it for a bit even if bitcoin is not, then will slowly go back to how BTC happens to move, but for the most part BTC tends to follow spy quite a bit itself.
Something to think about for a bit more longer term players in this.
Decided to look into why MARA had such a significant increase in May. They stated:
“The increased production was due to an increased hash rate and a significant increase in transaction fees, which accounted for approximately 11.8% of the total bitcoin we earned in the last month. The emergence of Ordinals significantly increased transaction fees in May, which in some cases, were so high that they exceeded the 6.25 BTC block reward. With our scale and our improved uptime during the month, we were able to capitalize on this opportunity. While such abnormally high transaction fees are historically rare, we believe these events can serve as a positive sign for the future of mining economics.”
Again that became a 77% increase in production vs the previous month. So with MARA producing “only” 21% less bitcoin than May due to lower transaction fees than an abnormal month of increased fees etc I still think is nothing to scoff at. Means they still produced 56% more bitcoin than they did in April.
busy day at work again but saw walter tweet the miners were up PM a good amount. Cleanspark has been going nuts. Don’t like it but blackrock CEO saying its an international asset might be bullish, although thought he said that yesterday. BTC did go high again but looks like its around 30k now. Something to keep an eye on for some quick money. if SPY stays red it still might mute a potential movement today entirely. Hope this helps <:kekw:923797443471081503>
Metric June 2023 May 2023 June 2022 Month/Month Year/Year
Bitcoin Produced 460 676 421 -32% 9%
Average Bitcoin Produced per Day 15.3 21.8 14.0 -30% 9%
Bitcoin Held1 7,250 7,190 6,654 1% 9%
Bitcoin Sold 400 600 300 -33% 33%
Bitcoin Sales - Net Proceeds $10.6 million $16.5 million $6.2 million -36% 71%
Average Net Price per Bitcoin Sold $26,456 $27,568 $20,627 -4% 28%
Deployed Hash Rate1 10.7 EH/s 2 10.5 EH/s 2 4.4 EH/s 2% 143%
Deployed Miners1 95,904 2 94,176 2 42,455 2% 126%
Power Sales3,5 $8.4 million $0.5 million $1.9 million 1,452% 338%
Demand Response Revenue4,5 $1.6 million $2.3 million $0.7 million -29% 137%
As of end of month.
Exahash per second (“EH/s”). Excludes 17,040 miners that are offline as a result of damage to Building G from the severe winter weather in late December 2022 in Texas.
Power curtailment credits received from the Company’s ability, under its long-term power contracts, to sell power back to the ERCOT grid at market-driven spot prices.
Proceeds from participation in ERCOT demand response programs.
Going forward, the Company plans to disclose this figure in its monthly updates if it exceeds $1 million for the current month.
I’m highly convicted that the share dilution vote day is going to be like an earnings run. It’s gonna continue to run pretty decent up until the play. I’d like to think whether the vote gets approved or not that it would have a “sell the news” type dip, but that’s some crystal ball shit (as is my whole thesis here LOL). Unless BTC has some serious change and breaks below it’s 29.9/30k area, I think we’re gonna keep moving.
I’m curious as to why you think it will balloon up to the vote barring any new news or btc movements. If they vote yes its extremely bearish, although in any miners case its almost always to buy more miners and most seems to fare well afterwards. I do think you’re probably right that in either case sell the news will happen but since one of two is bearish still not sure why it’d drift up for that purpose
I don’t think it will drift up after the vote if the vote passes. It’s adding 150% more shares so more than likely we’ll see the price at least be split in half. I think with the more recent monthly news of consistently strong bitcoin mining and paying themselves back for the money they’ve used, fundamentally it feels like this would make buyers more interested, especially if this vote does not pass.
Is this right? Asset managers like Vanguard will usually just follow indices. Is it possible perhaps that on a market cap adjusted basis, 10% is what Vanguard needs to buy to follow those indices?
I’m not sure I understand your question. When you say following indices are you referencing their holdings vs “x stock makes up x% of spy/qqq”? But since I’m thinking about this it seems I should clarify it appears they now own a 10% stake meaning they purchased more shares but already had a stake, didn’t just purchase 10%. Seems they also hold marathon. About half a billion betwixt the two
