Possibly interesting options activity brewing in FAZE during the last 10 minutes.
However also some big “sells” here. Note that they’re tagged based on where they are filled towards the bid or the ask. In these “sells” the fill appears to be somewhere in the mid, but just leans slightly towards the bid.
Looking forward to tomorrow, a fair amount of volume on the 10c. People buying ITM options makes me more bullish this will play out as similar YAGS™.
Twitter thread about ORTEX investigating the FF. It seems clear that it’s the predicted 1.3m just from the volatility though.
Looks like those deep ITM calls are being traded rather than exercised then?
https://twitter.com/ortex/status/1552322593650196481?s=21&t=huTzYkYWMGFifCigZFhnsw
S-3 actually has the SI estimated at 1.7m, I don’t know how reliable it is compared to ORTEX though. (This was yesterday too)
These guys are atrocious at calculating free floats. They miscalculated the $BBAI float by like 8 million and kept doubling down despite Twitter users showing them the actual math behind the float calculation. They finally corrected themselves like a day before the S1 dropped too hahah.
If they put out a different free float number I would be very skeptical until it was verified by other sources.
Feel like this is getting pinned in that 12-14 range. As if to keep it under the 15 strike. Sort of remember similarities in ESSC whenever gets close it comes back down. Not sure if there is anything to it. And a long ways to go til Aug 19th.
Also looks as if they have now added weeklies to FAZE chain. Never a good thing in my opinion.
I Don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing, if it runs to hard too fast it builds a top heavy chain with nothing lower to support it, at the end of SST all the OI was above 25 and as soon as it lost that level it was in free fall. Trading in this range gives it chance to build a bit of a cushion at the lower end.
SST had weekly’s too I believe the month of the squeeze but they never really had much OI.
I’m hesitant to compare to SST here as it took from January to April to push from 10 to 20. Did give ample opportunity to profit off it in the mean time. Probably don’t have that much time here if the PIPE unlocks or may not in that time frame.
However if float is remotely close and OI keeps building could see some fireworks. SST was never a setup other than a low float pump. Definitely been watching this.
SST cycled from $10.50 to $12 for a long time. Then it stuck around $15 for a while. It ran through like 3 monthly expiries from when retail started playing it to when it squeezed.
And most importantly it had a catalyst (earnings report). FAZE does not have a known upcoming catalyst as far as I know.
News catalyst is the most important thing. It leads to short covering + new investors with an already loaded OI chain. I have a hard time imaging this running significantly without some sort of positive news.
This has a lot of ingredients but it is missing the ignition. And I don’t think just retail investing is gonna be it because plenty of retail already knows about this (it’s made rounds on StockTwits and Reddit already). Either a very wealthy investor/firm comes in or news catalyst will be ignition imo.
So on paper the setup might look similar to SST (OI + SI), but FAZE needs the magic sauce that puts it all together and makes it work.
Honestly when looking at this play we can probably throw the SI out the window. Unless it’s some broke ass retail investor shorting this. The likelihood of any covering is minuscule. The biggest hope is the chain gets jacked.
The one thing I think FAZE has as a catalyst is notoriety I mean no one gave a shit what ESSC was. Other than some Chinese shell corp.
These guys at very least have some retail recognition. Not sure how it’s a company or ticker. But people at least know what they are.
Couldn’t resist that dip this morning, got some pretty good fills. Already up 30% will probably flip some at 50% and hold a few through the weekend
Saw an idea on Twitter that MMs are keeping the price down by exercising deep ITM calls and selling down using those shares, explaining why there are such large flows in deep ITM calls yet none of it remains as Open Interest.
Evidently, see volume and OI on 2.5c and 5c:
5c
2.5c
Anyways, I closed whatever calls I had today for a loss when FAZE broke under 11.
Yep this is exactly what happened on other SPAC plays such as BBAI and SST. Lots of deep ITM calls with no OI the next day.
I understand why people sell when it’s a -10% day but honestly these low floaters cycle up and down pretty drastically. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this back at $13 in a few days. But again i understand seeing people sell especially since there is no NAV floor on this. And with MMs getting their hands on shares it’s just another bearish obstacle.
As we’ve seen in other plays, the release of weeklies killed the momentum. Chain expansions are something that should definitely be taken as a bearish event.
S-1 Filed this morning
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001839360/000119312522207313/d383550ds1.htm
Weekly option chain got expanded to have strikes every 50c… is this to make weeklies more appealing?
It is one of the well-documented ways market makers prevent gamma squeezes. Less OI on weeklies means not nearly as much hedging required.
Not sure if anyone is still in this but I have a few calls so I’m still paying attention a little bit. Rolled through the chain and there is a volume of 810 on the $2 strike. Thought it would be interesting to see if this ends up in OI tomorrow and how that plays out with the ticker.
Usually the deep ITM never stays.
The OI seems to be decreasing to be honest, never really got the momentum I’d have hoped.
Yea I was thinking it may indicate a day with alot of selling pressure. All those calls were purchased within the first 30min. But, it happened again today, 810 at $2 strike.
