BTC Bitcoin - Fundamentals, News, and Alerts

rexxxar · December 24, 2022, 6:59am

Hello, beautiful and rich winners of Valhalla.
I have come to update my chart obsession.

Here, we see that Bitcoin is once again trying to break out of this parallel downtrend…

Notice we’re yet to experience a late-year big flush like that of 2018.
I’m intrigued now as to what is keeping it up at this price point, I don’t trust any bullish sentiment right now.

It was already rejected twice earlier, once in November, and again 10 days ago on Dec. 14…

Now let’s take a loot at the Weekly candles…

The 48day (yellow) and 200day EMA (red) lines are on the verge of crossing down, possibly bearish, but can also bounce up.
MACD indicator remains weak underneath the Histogram, although the lines seem to be recovering.
RSI indicator is trailing at the bottom, indicating little demand.
BB %b indicator has already touched the bottom 4 times in 2022, weaker than 2014-2015 and 2019-2020.

I think we are half-way into the Distribution phase of Bitcoin.

The past months have demonstrated strong buying power whenever it drop a couple of grands.
Now with FTX’s death and decay, I think one remaining behemoth’s downfall will spell the inevitable end of this long bullish adventure.
Continue to monitor the broad market, because play-money still needs real money to have any fun with.

rexxxar · January 17, 2023, 12:14pm

Snapshot of Daily and Weekly candles added on main body, above.
Happy Trading!

Ranger_Oz · April 21, 2023, 8:12am

Adding the things I’ve discussed in Discord:

Alright gang, BTC is at that 27.9K support I mentioned (seems to be more b/w 27.8-27.9 range), and we’re starting to see the gaps closing between the 20, 30, and 40 MAs, which historically point to BTC maintaining its current level for about 4-7 days OR, more commonly, a crossover of the 20MA down below the others, taking BTC with it in a nice dip, usually playing out within 20 days of the current size gap. (I say 20d for the sake of a couple of outliers we’ve seen in past price action, but it’s closer to 8-15 days on average.)

At this point, I am sticking to my Short strategy with the miners, not looking to add anymore to my Long option plays, unless it’s to add some EOY Calls for the ones I believe stand a good chance of rising up well with BTC AFTER it recovers much later this year. This doesn’t mean I won’t play any Calls, but unless I see it going to break above 28.8K, I’m hesitant to recommend playing them.

My concern is that so far everything I’ve been mentioning has happened, but slightly quicker than I have anticipated. This is the part where I tell you to manage your own risk, and always secure profit/cost basis FIRST. This is how I do it, and I’ll usually leave a runner or two so my gambling spirit can feel satiated.

Alternatively, any bad news for fiat institutions could mean a pop up for BTC, and with talk becoming all the more comfortable about the impending recession, we need to be mindful of our plays.

I’m still cautiously optimistic that the current move should be shorting BTC. Keeping these plays to no more than 30-40% of my port though.

*I’ll add some charts when I get to my PC, don’t feel like getting out of bed right now and it’s hard to capture the timeframes on my phone screen where they are easily visible

Chart Update:

You can compare the candle patterns between the highlighted zone and where we are now, plus the consolidating MA lines (Yellow = 20, Orange = 30, Red-Orange = 40, Red = 50)

On the 4H we see the 20MA has already crossed, now acting as resistance to the price movement.

Ranger_Oz · April 24, 2023, 1:41am

Just wanted to update with a few more things I mentioned on Discord:

I am still finding good reason to think the current trend is following a similar path to the trend in March before the big dip (picture above and below in the Orange circle).

Check out the pattern across all the indicators (above), this is part of what I love about BTC since it follows a somewhat normal distribution, we can see a VERY similar development to the activity in March.

This was also the last time it touched the -2 STD line, so I’m anticipating the next couple of days will stay low or dip a bit closer to that 26.5K support. I don’t see it coming down below the 25K support though, but still money to be made possibly shorting it over the next few of days.

The cycle of the dips between the bounces has lasted about 8-10 days, we are at approximately day 2-3 of that, so unless some news comes out that would break that cycle, I’m playing puts for now. I’m not going to bother trying to time the call action until I have more certainty, but we’ll see it once it starts on the indicators.

Looking at EMAs (above), we also see a pattern where the ribbon is starting to condense, which means the current trend is weakening and we are either going to see a compression like in early March right before a small bounce and then the large dip (highlighted orange circle), or trend will change entirely, which seems much less likely given all the indicator data.

Overall, I’m thinking shorting BTC miners this week while adding a bit more to my actual BTC holdings. As @dooknukem mentioned in TF, if it falls below current support levels (roughly 27K), he anticipates it may make it down to the 23K-24K area before encountering more support. I believe there will be a bit of a stop along the way around the 25K area as I’ve mentioned in previous posts and noted on some of the charts above.

Ranger_Oz · April 26, 2023, 11:33am

Quite an eventful day today after the bank news. BTC is back up over 28K, and actually just touched 29K. Given this, I would say the risk factor for any put plays is substantial, as it could conceivably hit back up towards the 30K mark before we see a rejection. This seems to have been caused by bad banking news, and be an offshoot of the corrective pattern I still believe to be the overall case.

So, personally I would recommend getting out if this is putting a strain on you or your account. I am still in my position, but I am also in a situation that I can afford to be a bit riskier with this play. It is a small portion of my overall portfolio and I am still very confident in the correction idea.

What I will be looking for is a retracement back to the 27.8K level. If it can hold around there for a bit, or break down through it, I will feel more comfortable about shorting again.

I will post a bit more on the overall trend a bit later. We also need to continue to be mindful of these catalysts, since we’ve safely determined bad banking news is good for crypto and BTC in particular. We also need to look at the tech stock implications, since many of them have earnings this week and there is some association between the tech sector and crypto, where really good tech news can also bump up crypto.

Ranger_Oz · April 28, 2023, 11:56am

Update from some of the stuff I’ve discussed on Discord:

As of this moment, there is a lot of uncertainty for how BTC will move. PCE news later this morning will help us get a better gauge, but of the scenarios the two that I see as being most likely are below:

PCE data comes back better than expected, we will likely see a dip in BTC, probably closer to the 27.2K area and if sell-off is strong enough, we may touch back to the 26.5K, not sure about lower than that.
PCE data comes back worse than expected, we will likely push to 29.8K again and breakthrough possibly even up to 32.5K at a max, before some correcting.

Again, at this point nothing is certain. We all saw how BTC reacted this week to various catalysts, and if anyone is trying to tell you with any degree of certainty that it’s going one way or another, I’ve also got an igloo to sell you for a great price!

I do not recommend opening any positions right now or building on any existing ones for anything BTC related. Let’s see what the morning holds…

Ranger_Oz · May 1, 2023, 8:09pm

Alright gang, quick update because kids have been all over me today, unfortunately they are sick so dad is playing nurse. I apologize in advance for lack of charts, I’ll try to provide some TA in the next update:

As of right now, I am out of all my positions in BTC related tickers. With the downturn today, hopefully those of you in the plays were able to scale out or take profit.

Later this week we have a conference with the Fed (Wednesday afternoon, I believe) and until then I don’t see enough certainty to play either up or down.

On top of that, we are now T-6 weeks from my target “market dip” and given that everything we’ve seen so far, much of which has matched the price action we’ve discussed in the chat but usually a bit sooner, I am going to be much more cautious going forward.

By the end of June I fully expect a retracement to the 18K-22K levels, barring any major news. We are officially at less than 1 year till the next Halvening and this dip will likely be the last time this year to get BTC at such low prices.

Some of the more Bearish influencers I follow have estimates as low as 12K, but this simply doesn’t align with the models I’ve charted out, given the logarithmic trend it tends to follow. I won’t say it’s impossible, but I will say a range between 18K - 22K as the low seems much more statistically probable.

Aside from that, BTC dominance broke past the hard S/R level of about 48-49% on Thursday, but it did NOT sustain, and has likely begun its descent as of today. This concludes the “double-top” given its last touch of the line was last week when it spiked to 48.9%, so I’m thinking we will see it head down and continue the consolidation pattern. Next support is around 46-47%, roughly where it was just after the March dip, and been floating at between these spikes. The market is greedy at the moment, so people may start to look at other coins for the next 100x opportunity and get burned. Please be mindful of your risk tolerance. This is not the time to go heavy into altcoins.

Edit: Added a couple of things for context regarding the dominance bit. To be clear, once the dip happens for BTC and the crypto market respectively, dominance should see a nice run up. BTC price and Dominance have an almost “inverse” relationship, I hope this clarifies things a bit.

Ranger_Oz · May 10, 2023, 11:36am

Quick update peeps:

CPI today, I’m expecting some volatility. MARA also has ER today in AH, traditionally it closes lower than it opens on ER days, but given the anticipated “hot” news from CPI we may see something else today.

BTC normally has some price action +/- 2K on CPI days, but the days after CPI, at least so far this year, we have seen BTC run a bit. Including some data down below:

April 12th BTC: (CPI Report)

O: 30.2 H: 30.5 L: 29.6 C: 29.9

By 4/14 it ran up to 31K before starting its descent 4/15 and gapping down biggly on 4/19.

March 14th BTC: (CPI Report)

O: 24.2 H: 26.5 L: 24.0 C: 24.7

By 3/17 it ran up to 27.8K before starting to come down a bit on 3/24 and consolidating for a bit.

February 14th BTC: (CPI Report)

O: 21.7 H: 22.3 L: 21.5 C: 22.2

By 2/16 it ran up to 25.2 and touched that area a few more times before starting its descent 2/22.

We see similar patterns going back several more months, but I’m trying to get this out sooner rather than later so feel free to look those up yourself or ask me in Discord.

All that said, I expect a similar pattern this month, but we still want to be careful. I will likely open a small position, depending on news, for the miners 1-2 weeks out, but do keep the ERs in mind as these could also affect how they play out.

Ranger_Oz · May 17, 2023, 8:42pm

Hey gang, so we saw some decent price action today riding off some positive crypto news. Between the SEC getting spanked a bit in its legal action against XRP, Tether announcing they’re buying BTC going forward on a monthly basis, and Zimbabwe making some headlines on the news cycle again for their gold-backed crypto that was out last week, BTC took a nice run.

What we’re looking for here in terms of playing the positive side is for BTC to hold above 27.2K through tomorrow, which would signal a jog back up to 28.8K area.

On the flip side, if it fails here I anticipate a dip back to low 26K’s with the next harder support being around 25.5K.

Either way, I’m still not hoping into miners without some decent confirmations in either direction. Plus the big news from Sunday could definitely affect any plays held over the weekend, so. Holding tight for now.

Ranger_Oz · May 23, 2023, 4:20pm

Looking for BTC to come back down under 27K at this point, but if it can hold around 26.9k area and bounce, I anticipate we’ll see ourselves back at the 27.8 level.

Ranger_Oz · May 24, 2023, 10:28am

So BTC decided to go down, like I previously mentioned, but it actually went lower than I expected. Big fat red dildo straight towards the next support line I had marked off around 26.668K.

Still floating near that line, which sucks for my Long position which I entered around 26.9K, but it triggered overnight and so at this point I’m just going to hold it with an SL set just below the hard support around 26.5K.

Until we get some volume, we’re likely to just range here for a bit. Let’s see if any of the news today helps get us back over 27K

Ranger_Oz · June 10, 2023, 3:30pm

Doing some more traveling today gang, so I’m going to try and keep this short, but I wanted to make mention of the recent price action and things we’ve been seeing:

BTC and many others had a nice dip last night, I had several PTs set for DCA and was happy to see my ETH and BYC balances this morning. A lot of this I’m attributing to the recent news and things we’ve been discussing regarding the lawsuits and DEX/CEX announcements that have come out (and which I anticipate to continue) regarding US trading.

All of these issues are lining up with the working theory that we will see a significant dip down near the end of June. I am still working on this assumption, which is historically backed by the regular seasonality of BTC itself. A Summer slump is quite normal, but my guess is this one may be a bit more exaggerated leading up to a renewed bull-run which will peak coming up to the halvening next year in April/May. I’ve been keeping a decent cash supply on the sidelines JUST FOR THIS EVENT. With that said, I have also continued to DCA at the dips and trade futures in between the peaks and valleys.

Below you will find the levels I’ve been working in, to include my cute rainbow chart: <:kekw:923797443471081503>

Ranger_Oz · June 11, 2023, 1:27am

Alright gang, taking a quick break but I wanted to point out what I’m seeing now:

Large institutional crypto does not seem to be leaving the market for fiat, it actually seems to be moving into BTC, ETH, but predominantly into the top Stablecoins by market cap (USDT, USDC, DAI, TUSD, *BUSD)

I want to get some charts up, but I’m on my phone so they may come out a little weird on here, so instead I found a nice reporting that has charts to illustrate my following points:

It does not seem that institutions or whales are converting to fiat. Instead, it actually seems they are holding their Stablecoins on the sidelines.

*2. BUSD, which is the Binance USD peg, has been on a steady decline since March, but had the largest drop of all stablecoins right around the time of the lawsuit, which is not surprising, but it serves as an example that the market did price in the news.

Market cap decreased a bit for BTC and ETH respective to the larger stablecoins, but the largest altcoins saw a pretty drastic sell off, seemingly into BTC and ETH which mitigated their drop and kept them more stable.

Here is the article:

Ranger_Oz · June 11, 2023, 1:35am

My chart here shows the stablecoins I mentioned with BTC, ETH, ALGO, SOL, MATIC, and BNB (for shits and giggles).

The one at the very bottom that you can’t see the label for, again because I’m on my phone and can’t seem to get it all to fit, is USDC which has also been on a pretty hard decline this year (still not convinced it’s legit, but that’s a discussion for another thread).

Ranger_Oz · June 11, 2023, 1:37am

Catalyst_59 · June 11, 2023, 2:15am

Patrick Boyle’s coverage of the SEC’s move. One of the takeaways concerns Crypto ETFs, if they haven’t sold off could there be a bearish trade in that space? I really don’t follow crypto much so you guys would know more.

Ranger_Oz · June 21, 2023, 3:44pm

Now that we’ve hit 30K, there is a small chance we see 32K with enough volume, but I expect a cooling off here, likely touching back to the top of that wedge I posted earlier, barring any news.

Ranger_Oz · June 21, 2023, 3:51pm

For confirmation on that 32K run, I’m looking for a close above 30.2-ish.

Otherwise, I see it coming back down soon to the 28K-29K levels. I’ll get a chart up soon as I get to a spot I can do so.

Ranger_Oz · June 21, 2023, 4:59pm

Here’s an updated chart of my levels, please note these are not exact numbers:

Ranger_Oz · June 21, 2023, 5:10pm

Thick white line up top is the 30K-32K wall we need to breach for a real bull season.

The purple lines are what I use on hourly trading, they are weaker S/R levels compared to the white lines of the same thickness. The bottom gold line is my “floor” level, or what I hope we reach if we get the big dip I’m expecting.

If I’m doing inter-day trading, I try to use the lines to gauge my long and short positions, as BTC tends to bounce relatively well between them. Intraday I will usually use those same lines as tops and bottoms, while drawing new lines in between, BUT this is just for days we are ranging with no news. I will usually play the miners accordingly, but again this is for days with no anticipated news (for crypto AND/OR stock market in this case).