I typed a lot of stuff on TF so I’m going to copy paste here because it get a couple of Forums emojis --here is a summary of my thoughts followed by what I put on TF in response to duke…its basically the same thing I typed up there -
– BTC rallied on the bank crisis, being talked about as a safe haven. I believe this is wrong, that it rallied as it has before as a risk on asset. The risk on narrative comes from the BTFP programs launch, which twitter heads view as QE, and I don’t…because of people smarter than myself.
– Hyperinflation narrative added to its thrust - spread by a $1m USD price tag for bitcoin by a madmans bet (probably selling BTC on the way up for a profit before it rolls over, using his own bets hype).
– This rolls over as Risk-on assets sell off/the bullshit narrative of hyperinflation gets killed with a standard 25bps raise, followed by more, and a realization that the dollars aren’t going to turn to campfire tinder in a post apocalyptic fiat world.
– Shorted COIN with $65 04.21p @3.83 average, $55 04.21p @$3.08 average (big yikes), $65p 03.31 @$1.41 average --these were all squeezed and I hit max position
– looking for a roll over by end of month back to 58-66 level for an exit when BTC rolls over
this is a discussion – please add with your input
Amazing timing on this call, @EV1 !
COIN received a Well’s Notice: https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1638654192138199041
Down 13% AH to $66.5x, and still dropping.
Looks like the various regulatory authorities continue to regulate through enforcement when it comes to crypto.
One of our very own members worked/works at Signature bank and was saying they were targeted for Crypto connections…seems more and more like a theme that the powers that be are tamping down on crypto. I got lucky with this news as I didnt originally take the position on it, but it makes holding it more comfortable
I looked at COIN earlier this week but talked myself out of puts. May still be good to entry (currently at $60). Be mindful the company has $4.42-5.28b in cash and cash equivalents. At at 180.45m share float, that’s $29.29/share. Hard to imagine this stock going to zero:
70% of the deposits are held in BTC and ETH, suggesting some insulation from stablecoin dumps:
Now, if those “cash equivalents” are held by Silvergate and SVB, I think they have a problem since all this data is as of Dec 31, 2022.
I ended up closing my COIN short the morning after the wells notice came out. BTC however and crypto in general keeps taking hits. I’m currently exposed to April BITI calls, and considering taking longer dated MSTR puts. The binance news does not look good, and it doesn’t help the narrative that BTC is a safe haven asset. From my general understanding it looks like binance had been secretly trading against its own customers and manipulating prices, lots of volume may be wash sale related too. Beyond that, it looks like MSTR sold shares to pay off their SI loan, and spent the rest of their shelf buying more bitcoin over the past month. I’ll have to look more into the last bit there as that was twitter info.
In essence, the Binance news looks very bad, and if they were propping up this market along with MSTR buying, and this FOMO pump on QE headlines, adds more to my conviction that bitcoin is going to roll back towards where it started the year.