Excellent callout!
A few observations / points to note:
- Unlock of 282m shares is approx 88% of the total shares outstanding of CORZ so this is gonna apply some massive pressure
- On the other side of the coin, we have BTC prices which have surged in the last couple of days so this could provide a floor / headwind to how much this falls
- An S1 has been filed for these shares to be sold (on 9 Feb) but has not gone effective yet so it’s possible that they only become registered and tradable after 10 Mar. In any case, the market has already started pricing in the potential large outflow as it rightly should but just take note of this point in case you hold short dated puts
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CORZ has fallen 22%, with no signs of stopping. Sell order set at 2x buy price hit already. Amazing callout, @hansolo! 
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For those who may have missed it, VC mentioned Bitcoin run up may be causing this green candle.
I believe its SPY coupled with BTC and temporary bullish sentiment. Added some ATM puts with extra cash on hand to leverage my challenge a bit.
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I thought about doing this as well but wasn’t sure. I’m still learning how to view the chart movements and determine correlation.
Me as well. I wasn’t fully aware of this concept until I saw Conq note correlations. I would learn about the beta, which typically indicates a stock’s correlation with the general market.
https://twitter.com/CulperResearch/status/1499399512284024838
Short seller report released on CORZ… this is gonna make this even more volatile
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Investigations happening:
There are 3 more other firms conducting their own investigations and encouraging those who lost money on the stock to come forward. Meanwhile, we’ve been making bank being bearish on it. Next week is the week. Looking forward to share unlock dump on Thursday and a Friday power hour dump to unload a good amount of my positions.
Even if the initial shareholders don’t sell everything, the sentiment may be enough to send it sub-$5.
CORZ just released preliminary. Here is a quote from executives:
Core Scientific’s Board of Directors voted unanimously to accelerate by approximately four months the expiration of the “lock-up” restricting the sale of stock held by early (pre-public) investors in the company. The Board determined that it was in the best interests of the company to increase the shares available for trading in the open market.
“By enabling early private round investors to sell shares we hope to increase our traded float,” commented Mr. Levitt. “We welcome these sales as we believe that increasing our float will benefit our company and is in the best long-term interests of all of our shareholders. Affiliates of the company, including myself, my fellow board members Matt Minnis and Darin Feinstein, and executive officers Todd DuChene, Michael Trzupek and Brian Neville, are not currently eligible to sell shares under the exemption provided by Rule 144.”
This confirms the unlock is indeed to dilute the float so that there are more shares for long term prospects. I expect a gap down at the end of the week with a possible run up around earnings.
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I have to say, the play has been developing perfectly. CORZ set a new daily low regardless of preliminary financial results due to the fact that share dilution was further confirmed. There was an argument going on about whether they are unlocking to sell immediately or not. Well, they are.
To add on, the bitcoin drop and crypto drop in advance of Biden’s involvement in the crypto sector couldn’t have came at a more perfect time given that CORZ is a crypto mining stock.
I seriously cannot wait to see how this is factored into the equation among all other above-mentioned variables. I’m going to keep some cash on hand to add a decent amount of March 18 5p the market close just before scheduled share unlock. I’m hoping to fully exit by Friday end of the day dump, but will skim a lot of positions on Thursday if the price drops sharply to hoard some of those IV gains as well.
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Took profit on +5 Apr 5p @0.65 added +8 April 5p @0.45. Looking to add 2 more if they would just fill at .35, but premiums don’t seem to be moving regardless of price action. Might be IV here.
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I’m excited for tomorrow. Tomorrow is the day, I don’t know much I’ll be able to sleep tonight.
The share unlock of 282M will be complete by market open’ this is a 88% increase in the shares outstanding. Early investors are allowed to sell all of them. The 10 average volume of $CORZ is barely 3M, which is JUST 1.06% of the amount of shares involved in the unlock and the stock still dropped to 7.25 from above 9.5. I’m curious how much selling pressure there will be tomorrow and Friday. God forbid the market acts irrationally.
As for earlier, I was able to get a fill of April 14 5p @0.40.
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Today is the day. It’s 9:23 in pre-market and CORZ is down 9.77% on under 20k volume pre-unlock.
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Interesting green pump. Hopefully we see the descending movement by close
Volume is only at 2 million, barely touching the 2.33mil average
Perhaps we need another few days
On the run up I averaged down big and rolled to April expiries, I had concerns about what if early investors don’t sell right away and assumed they would sell enough to surpass the average volume. Well, I was wrong. I’ll be holding to see what next week has to offer now that my puts are mostly ITM and are a month out.
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Here is my attempt at tech analysis yesterday, which somehow still lines up. Open to criticism. CORZ has started to move within the lower bollinger.
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Was wondering what was causing the big move down yesterday (apart from general market/crypto weakness) and I saw they filed their S-1/A after hours. Short term volatility could persist in this name as when the S-1 goes effective the bulk of the 282m unlock that wasn’t eligible for resale previously could potentially hit the market. Per the doc, it looks like this could be up to 230+m shares
Update — Quite a few of these shares appear to be unissued awards or convertible securities so a quick calc of the number immediately available for sale looks like closer to 95+m (or approx 30% of the 317m total issued share base)
P.S Could TS / a mod help amend the title of this thread to include the updated ticker CORZ to make the thread more accessible for anyone searching for the updated ticker?
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