$XPDI has stockholder meeting on Jan 19th and will trade under the ticker symbol $CORZ shortly after. With the current negative sentimentan around deSpacs and the market becoming more risk-averse, $XPDI can experience a similar dump to $HLGN.
Redemption rights are just about to complete and the NAV floor should be disappearing soon either tomorrow or Friday.
If you are a holder of Class A Common Stock and wish to exercise your redemption rights, you must demand that XPDI redeem your shares for cash no later than the second business day preceding the vote on the Business Combination Proposal by delivering your stock to XPDI’s transfer agent physically or electronically using Depository Trust Company’s (Deposit/Withdrawal At Custodian) (“DWAC”) system prior to the vote at the Special Meeting.
In comparison to other Miners ($BTC, $MARA, $RIOT, $HUT). They have all experienced similar movements except for XPDI which has naturally been pinned to the $10 NAV floor.
Similar to other deSpacs, you can play the initial drop and eventually the bounce. IV should spike decently on a dump as well.
On the other hand, the current valuations in comparison to other BTC miners are alright and a bit more conservative compared to other “SPACS”. So there should be some future value and growth here.
Thanks for the DD, xianchen, and for the discussion earlier!
Also found XPDI/CORZ appealing because:
they have established revenue streams and are profitable - $203M 2021E EBITDA on $493M 2021E revenue,
are actually bigger than Mara and Riot, and adding more capacity,
more diversified than competitors - they mine and rent. Riot does too, but Mara and many others do not
they more or less hit their Jul projections for 2021E revenue from mining itself - ~$250M - a rarity in the Spac world
I also see this as a two-part play:
Short XPDI now, as put/call ratios, pin to NAV, relative valuation, and general negative sentiment around deSpacs point to a drop out of the gates. Guesstimate would be a 20-30% drop, settling around $7. Merger vote is Jan 19, and with Mon being MLK day, the floor might be gone tomorrow though, so might be too late to get puts while NAV floor is still there. Given how close we are to the vote, and how close the vote is to 1/21 opex, need to look at Feb puts, but IV is jacked, making them puts are rather expensive. So will very probably be waiting till after floor gone to get in.
Long CORZ once price hits $7 or so, assuming BTC doesn’t fall some more.
Sorry @Vortexy just seeing this, but as @xianchen noted, am in for 1/21 10P.
Got lucky actually - prices tried to stubbornly hold around $10 even though the floor was gone. Even crossed $10 for very short periods in the first hour. This allowed an opportunity to get those 10P for $0.80 only.
Since then, has fallen a bit, though clearly there are buyers for XPDI. So much so that it showed relative strength compared to the market (SPY/QQQ) in that last hour! Early days, but this is another data point to support a long term bullish view for the stock.
So, looks like the XPDI merger happened, but my new CORZ options have a $0 bid and a $0 ask on TDA. Will they go back to ‘normal’ at market open when CORZ options start trading?
Options look all kinds of wonky the day after SPAC mergers, as brokers real with it. They’ve always returned back to normal within one or two days, for me.
Looks like this play panned out well if you held through expiry. I exited at a slight loss as it was getting too dicey. Def following Nil into the other IVAN dump.
Ticker is now CORZ… for holders and anyone wanting to play the unlock, the board just waived the lockups… here
As a result of the Lock-Up Waiver, 282,311,836 shares of Common Stock of the Company will be eligible for sale in the public market at the opening of trading on March 10, 2022 (subject to trading limitations on shares held by affiliates of the Company, compliance with securities laws, continued vesting of any unvested equity awards as of such date, and the Company’s insider trading policy).
How will you all time your entry. I will most likely get ATM puts the monday of that week expiring April, followed by OTM puts on March 9 to minimize theta between March 7-10.
Alright I took a better look on this after class. Decided to go in with some puts on the likelihood of this dropping leading up to March 10, in this case I would be able to roll profits during the above-mentioned timeline.
Thanks for the DD!
