CPI Fortune Telling... What the market has done leading up to CPI

I don’t have a Bloomberg Terminal, but here are the numbers from Marketwatch & Trading Economics.

CPI1

As for energy & food costs… A few factors to consider…

  1. We are coming off of the summer peak travel season, so gas prices naturally drop around this time of year.

  2. SPR release is going to stop I think end of October?

  3. Hurricane season is getting warmed up with the peak around end of august / beginning of september, any major storms could cause problems.

  4. The LNG export terminal is expected to be back in operating in October (previously November), and when they start exporting again the price for NG will go up since Europe will gladly pay more for it.

  5. Row crops right now are in a crucial growth stage and much of the country is in a drought. From what I’ve been following the “high end” of yield expectations are already off the table (and that was already reduced from the late planting of much of the country). Now it’s a waiting game to see if they get any rain soon. As farmers harvest crops this fall we will get a better gauge on what food prices are going to be for the next year.

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