This is meant to be a general warning with miners having a very good last few weeks/good year from their bottoms. It can always turn into a thread for $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK etc. later but for now i’ll just get to it.
If anyone remembers the money printing fueled bull run, these crypto miners were much much higher. Specifically $RIOT and $MARA. I was new to trading at the time and always happened to pick the ones that didn’t move much in comparison to the other. Then one would dilute and the other would overtake, then that one would dilute and…same deal. Basically what i’m saying is if miners continue to go up, or btc continues to go up taking them with it, then be weary of share offerings. This is geared toward anyone swinging. I’m sure anyone who has long term shares is already aware and doesn’t care since no one probably posts long term share callouts. Its hard to know if/when these companies will dilute. I’ll look into it more in the meantime to see if theres any similarities with their finances and stock price. If anyone has any good info on it even if it seems coincidental please feel free to share.
Ironically due to their reasoning diluting on the way up, I would say, it isn’t the wrong thing to do, but if you are swinging options or shares then say good bye to your money lol.
This isn’t meant to be btc going up or miners going up talk. Just a general warning that if miners continue to go up, they will be looking for more cash to buy more miners or pay down debt if they have any. I suppose this could always evolve into a general crypto miner or leveraged btc play discussion but just wanted to throw this warning out there. It’s called risk on for a reason
Just wanted to put a tidbit here from last nights discussion.
As some know there has been a good swing opportunity on miners based upon how BTC moves in response to news of bank troubles. Essentially:
News of Bank Instability: Bullish for BTC News of Bank Stability OR Length of Time without Instability: Bearish for BTC
BTC seems to run on hopes of increased liquidity, the sort that would result from banks being “saved”. However, the miners themselves have stopped reacting as strongly to this catalyst. In the discussion last night I put forth that I believe in the current cycle we should expect miners (and BTC but to a more volatile extent) to trade in range.
The issue is that bank failures are trickling in and each failure doesn’t seem to be a large enough catalyst to push BTC through 30k and onward. However, as we’re still getting news of failures it’s not enough time to return to baseline and get a selloff on BTC. Therefore unless something changes we’ll probably continue the current cycle of trickling instability news that causes a rally and a timeframe without news that causes a selloff equaling a range.
This means that I don’t believe that in the current cycle this play is viable for anything other than a neutral strategy. This is subject to change, for instance if we see a surge of failures, that’ll be extremely bullish for BTC and miners undoubtedly would wake from their slumber and push alongside. Or if there is news that indicates bank danger is out of the way (without added liquidity) we could see a sharp selloff on BTC that miners would follow.
All in all, BTC is currently up on “hope” that we’re going back to bull season and this is something that is important to keep in mind because it’s the current “baseline”. This means that at some point, unless that view becomes reality (a return to brrrr), this valuation will be peeled off. This means that in my opinion, those looking for a return to 15k at some point are probably right, at least for now.
