They acquired Wolt for 8.1bn. (EU Expansion)
ER report was very mediocre as well, purely running on the WOLT news.
Loss per share: 30 cents vs 26 cents expected in a Refinitiv survey of analysts
Revenue: $1.28 billion vs $1.18 billion expected
Didn’t have to much time to do DD, but might be a sell the news type of event.
I’m right there with you.
Obviously I am short-term bearish but i’ll be adding my overall bearish case on DASH
DASH recently reported an earnings miss
at -.30 EPS vs consensus -.27 EPS news of a Wolt merger and a Dollar General partnership echoed the earnings miss and DASH rallied near ATH levels ($256) on 11/12 reaching $249.50. The last time DASH rallied to these levels it was quickly rejected to the $170 levels and tumbled down to $120 in the following months.
Dollar General Partnership
This Dollar General news is garbage hype when you consider that 50%+ of their customers are poor working class folk living in food deserts. Now, 32% of DoorDash Couriers live in these rural areas, however have been met with 50% increases in gas prices (which DoorDash historically has never covered) DoorDash did increase longer route pay but at a rate that still fails to break even with gas and rust damage in the mid west. in rural areas it’s extremely hard to find couriers available as it is to deliver and makes the service incredibly unreliable. When you’re spending $10-15+ in service fees+tips it becomes less and less desirable of a service. it’s reliance on grocers like dollar general will be a sinking ship since the business mode of dollar general and dollar tree alike is hiring less employees which leads to less money in consumer pockets and less consumption in these communities.
Finland based Wolt Acquisition
DoorDash is anticipating acquiring Wolt in the second half of 2022 for $8.1b. Making it the 3rd biggest financial deals for Finland. Way over there valuation in anticipation that the food delivery service will continue to grow post pandemic at pandemic levels of delivery growth, astoundingly idiotic, huh? Especially considering that DoorDash failed to become profitable in 2021 during peak growth in users/couriers and subscriptions of their “Dash Pass”.
DoorDash has continuously attempted to give more to the couriers in hopes of keeping pandemic levels of employment, especially towards couriers serving in more urban, dense areas.
Recently they partnered with ADT to create the feature called “SafeDash” which essentially puts a button in the app that connects you with 911 through ADT?? so it at least saves you the hassle of dialing a 3 digit number…
their current claims of Dashers is clearly an overestimation as well, as they consider any account activity to be an active account
final thoughts
I do think the food delivery service is here to stay, 100%. However, it’s definitely in a COVID bubble that we’ve seen effect many others.
I’m hoping to see DASH come back down to the $230 levels in the upcoming weeks and eventually in the $195-210 levels in the long term.
I have entered a super small sizing for 220p for nov 19th (IV currently sits at 60%). Hoping the momentum is killed after this weekend. The ticker has a history of moving really aggressively, and puts can benefit greatly from increase IV.
Still very risky but I like the risk/reward
This one is being Hall of Famed. This thread is a shining example of what I love about this community and is a template to follow for those shy about making threads. The initial post from @xianchen isnt expansive, it’s just an idea with a brief synopsis. Then @wabbitszn expanded on the idea with his knowledge and together those two posts accurately called out a ~$80 downward price movement.
Phenomenal work guys.