Not an expert at this by a long shot, but wanting to get others’ perspective. Looking at Disney, they have some momentum behind them with several factors inplay for earnings on 11/10.
#1. Ron DeSantis - He’s no Trump and he isn’t playing around with the Feds. Forget Republican or Democrat and understand what he has done for the economy of Florida and how he fights for businesses. Biden just ordered OSHA to begin fining companies with >100 employees $14,000 for each employee that is not vaccinated (starting Jan 4th). If a person does not wish to be vaccinated, they have to be tested EVERY week at THEIR OWN EXPENSE. So, if you are a single parent making a low wage but do not want to get vaccinated, Biden says, fuck you do it anyway. DeSantis says No Sir, fuck you! and I’m going to have the State Legislature pass a law so you can’t do anything about it!
If you’re not from Florida, you may not realize just how enormous Disney is to the economy there. The number of businesses that depend on the tourism industry around Orlando is astronomical. No matter what Disney says in public, they damn sure don’t want to be fined $14,000 for each employee, or add to the already increasing labor shortage by forcing employees to get the jab or quit.
#2 . Pfizer (believe it or not) - With the potential for an oral pill for COVID-19 becoming a real possibility in the near future, there will a lot of enthusiasm to get back to the theme parks. From Benzinga “interim analysis of data from the Phase 2/3 study of its oral COVID-19 antiviral candidate Paxlovid, showing an 89% reduction in the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause compared to placebo in patients treated within three days of symptom onset.”
Other notables are - They settled with Scarlet Johannson so the PR BS is out of the way. They are launching “The Book of Boba Fett” on the streaming service. They are dumping ESPN Classic. They signed smoking hot Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen in a live action remake of Snow White.
They have been hovering between $168-$188 for the past 6 months, but have some momentum behind them. Options are pretty cheap right now, and a run up of $10 isn’t out of the question. Depending on your entry, a $5 move could pay 50% or more.
Looks like historically they retrace for a few days following earnings. Seems like a promising breakout but I would personally hold entry for 3-5 days following earnings to minimize options premiums.
On top of that they are going to be giving a positive future outlook with the new higher prices of season passes, park tickets and monetizing the fast pass system. Outlook will be up
I’m with you. I believe in the mouse. Disney+ has been carrying them lately. That may go down but with people going out more and more (kids vaccine and new pill) I see the other business lines having major up ticks.
I’m in with 165c for March expiration and own shares long term in my children’s account.
I forgot to check back on this and frankly I’m amazed I didn’t do the same. My TA and decision making skills are usually polar opposites. Thats a hell of a dip AH though.
BUT! For whatever its worth it already is looking a little atypical and accelerated for a post-earnings loss. I see losses being between 6.5% and 10% following earnings and, assuming these AH value hold we’re already at 6.7% down over the past 3 days.
It looks like it may decide to change course again soon and quickly assuming the market doesn’t keep behaving like it did today.
Yeah I’m pretty sure I stated I was bearish on their earnings in the DIS DD I posted. I still see stock prices rising in the future, but figured they wouldn’t exactly hit earnings for this ER. I was at least expecting them to meet revenue expectations.
It’s okay, this might be the time I’ll go in for a long position. I was mainly waiting on this ER to do so
