Earnings 1/17-1/20

Morgan Stanley $91.66

Morgan Stanley (MS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.25 per share on revenue of $255.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 34% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 39.90% with revenue increasing by 1,622.89%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.3% above its 200 day moving average of $83.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 11, 2023 there was some notable buying of 25,195 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, March 17, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 3.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.

Netflix, Inc. $332.82

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 19, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $7.82 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.36 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 66.17% with revenue increasing by 1.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.8% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 35.8% above its 200 day moving average of $245.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 11, 2023 there was some notable buying of 14,450 contracts of the $600.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.8% move in recent quarters.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $374.00

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:15 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.25 per share on revenue of $11.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 34% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.43% with revenue decreasing by 17.42%. Short interest has decreased by 11.9% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.2% above its 200 day moving average of $327.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 28, 2022 there was some notable buying of 3,650 contracts of the $400.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

Silvergate Capital Corporation $13.20

Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:25 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $104.73 million. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.52% with revenue increasing by 111.42%. Short interest has increased by 423.8% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 79.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 81.3% below its 200 day moving average of $70.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Thursday, January 5, 2023 there was some notable buying of 15,931 contracts of the $15.50 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 25.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 18.5% move in recent quarters.

Citizens Financial Group Inc $41.72

Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:20 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.30 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 32% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.17% with revenue increasing by 23.61%. Short interest has increased by 4.9% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.2% above its 200 day moving average of $38.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 11, 2023 there was some notable buying of 1,000 contracts of the $35.00 put expiring on Friday, February 17, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.2% move in recent quarters.

United Airlines $51.65

United Airlines (UAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.07 per share on revenue of $12.26 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company’s guidance was for earnings of $2.00 to $2.10 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 229.38% with revenue increasing by 49.66%. Short interest has increased by 28.1% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 31.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.2% above its 200 day moving average of $40.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company’s last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 11, 2023 there was some notable buying of 17,492 contracts of the $42.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.

Charles Schwab Corp. $82.98

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Wednesday, January 18, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.10 per share on revenue of $5.53 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.91% with revenue increasing by 17.46%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.2% above its 200 day moving average of $72.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Friday, January 6, 2023 there was some notable buying of 3,654 contracts of the $83.00 put expiring on Friday, January 27, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

Signature Bank $118.37

Signature Bank (SBNY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.92 per share on revenue of $726.29 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.36% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has increased by 83.1% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.6% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 10, 2023 there was some notable buying of 5,047 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, June 16, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.

Procter & Gamble Co. $150.88

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, January 19, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.58 per share on revenue of $20.58 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.82% with revenue decreasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 12.1% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.8% above its 200 day moving average of $143.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 10, 2023 there was some notable buying of 15,157 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, February 17, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.

Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. $35.54

Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 17, 2023. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $33.95 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.92 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 27% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.02% with revenue increasing by 7.59%. Short interest has decreased by 44.2% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.6% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company’s last earnings release.

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Thanks for posting this again. Feel like when we were playing these best there was constant conversation on this thread. AH and PM. So I’m going to intend to get back to that as we have earnings season starting in full force.

Also like to note and track plays even ones I don’t and this gives me a chance to revisit them.

On that note we have had some bangers in the last week.

JPM calls were almost 10x.
UNH calls were 2x
MS calls were 3x
GS 350 puts today went from .45 near open to 7 dollars at one point.

Those were ones I’ve tracked.

Looking forward to the ones we have coming tomorrow. PNC SCHW and JBHT are at top of list.

PNC and SCHW had a drop last week with a good beat they could push back at very least to where they were.

I’ll try to update PM after read their print.

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So far from AH, UAL had a pretty big beat on earnings and significantly increased guidence, although there was quite a dip during an interview with the CEO, earnings call is tomorrow during market hours so safer to wait until that’s over.

This one is risky as it is up 25-30% since the beginning of the year already

United Airlines Holdings Beats

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) reported 4th Quarter December 2022 earnings of $2.46 per share on revenue of $12.4 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.07 per share on revenue of $12.3 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.31 per share. Revenue grew 51.4% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its earnings presentation it expects first quarter earnings of $0.50 to $1.00 per share on revenue of approximately $11.34 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $11.21 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2023. The company said it expects 2023 earnings of $10.00 to $12.00 per share on revenue of approximately $52.85 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $6.92 per share on revenue of $50.54 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023.

IBKR had a decent beat and had a pretty insane growth Yoy of 131% and 51% this Q.

Interactive Brokers Beats

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) reported 4th Quarter December 2022 earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $1.5 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.16 per share on revenue of $928.9 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.13 per share. Revenue grew 131.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Interactive Brokers Group Inc is an automated electronic broker and market maker engaged in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, and mutual funds.

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PNC

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. posted higher profit for the fourth quarter as rising interest rates helped boost results.
The Pittsburgh -based bank said net income attributable to common shareholders rose to $1.4 billion , compared with $ 1.21 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Earnings were $3.47 a share, compared with $2.86 a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting earnings of $ 3.95 a share.
Revenue rose 12% to $5.76 billion from $5.13 billion for the prior-year period. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had been forecasting revenue of $5.71 billion .
Net interest income surged 29% to $3.68 billion , driven by higher yields on interest-earning assets and growth in balances.
Noninterest income fell 8% to $2.08 billion , as year-over-year declines in asset management, deal activity and mortgage demand weighed on the business.
Provision for credit losses in the quarter was $408 million , up from $241 million in the third quarter. In the year- ago period, the company booked a benefit of $327 million from its provision for credit losses. The increase reflects concerns the bank could have about the strength of the economy.

https://thepncfinancialservicesgroupinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pnc-reports-full-year-2022-net-income-61-billion-1385-diluted

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JBHT had a pretty healthy EPS miss might watch this for puts play

Will wait til after UAL call to play it or maybe the run out of open up to the call.

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IBKR was a 10-12x today from the morning dip on the 80c, keeping this one on the watchlist as it fought the market all day and trickled up, that 76 area seems strong.

UAL sold off, could be either due to the fact it’s been on a crazy bullrun and good earnings are priced in, or we’ve seen it before where something will have good earnings and sell off on a red day and then run the day after.

Alcoa had a pretty bad miss from the whisper and rev down 20% from a year ago, last time it reported bad earnings and still ran but was much lower back then.

Alcoa Misses

Alcoa (AA) reported a 4th Quarter December 2022 loss of $0.70 per share on revenue of $2.7 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.85 per share on revenue of $2.7 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was for a loss of $0.51 per share. Revenue fell 20.3% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Alcoa Inc manufactures and engineers lightweight metals. It products include aluminum, titanium, and nickel, which are used in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, oil and gas, defense and industrial applications, among others.

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Pretty tough day to call here on earnings JBHT and PNC missed pretty good and we’re up from open. UAL beat and drilled. For most of the day.

I’m chalking it up to overall market conditions and support/resistance levels Not often it happens like that with earnings nearly every day of year. Tough plays all around when market does what it did today.

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NFLX could be an interesting one, while it did miss earnings and lower guidence they absolutely smashed it on subscriber growth, looks like the ad-supported tier is doing well. The first big drop in NFLX was due to subscribers declining, a growth company returning to growth could be really bullish. Hoping for some profit taking at open to get an entry.

# Netflix Misses

Netflix (NFLX) reported 4th Quarter December 2022 earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $7.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.47 per share on revenue of $7.8 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.67 per share. Revenue grew 1.9% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its shareholders letter it expects first quarter earnings of approximately $2.82 per share on revenue of approximately $8.17 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $2.97 per share on revenue of $8.13 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2023.

The ad-supported tier has also so far not cannibalised subscribers from higher paying tiers which was one of the potential concerns. They are also going to be putting an end to account sharing.

“also, as expected, we’ve seen very little switching from other plans. Overall the reaction to this launch from both consumers and advertisers has confirmed our belief that our ad-supported plan has strong unit economics (at minimum, in-line with or better than the comparable ad-free plan) and will generate incremental revenue and profit, though the impact on 2023 will be modest given that this will build slowly over time.”

"Later in Q1, we expect to start rolling out paid sharing more broadly. Today’s widespread account sharing (100M+ households) undermines our long term ability to invest in and improve Netflix, as well as build our business. While our terms of use limit use of Netflix to a household, we recognize this is a change for members who share their account more broadly. So we’ve worked hard to build additional new features that improve the Netflix experience, including the ability for members to review which devices are using their account and to transfer a profile to a new account. As we roll out paid sharing, members in many countries will also have the option to pay extra if they want to share Netflix with people they don’t live
*with. As is the case today, all members will be able to watch while traveling, whether on a TV or mobile device."

Maverick of Wall Street Earnings Review

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