Earnings Brainstorm Thread for 12-06-2021 thru 12-17-2021

I threw together a command to compile the following spreadsheet for earnings research in an effort to provide a better format for not just researching potential earnings plays, but finding the best potential earnings play. This spreadsheet combines an earnings calendar sourced from Finnhub.io with data from Finviz.

The goal of this thread and potentially the ones after it are to figure out which plays have the most potential in them for an earnings surprise, with emphasis on tracking COVID boosted stocks that have yet to see their drop.


Since I have the memory of a gnat, I’m leaving this reply here to do some investigating into SFIX. Will update later tonight :face_with_monocle:


This is amazing good stuff!


Initial reaction for SFIX… looks like it got a bump from covid but is already back to pre-covid level price.

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I sorted the table by insider selling and I think it might reveal some interesting options.


I queried historical earnings for about 75% of the tickers with upcoming earnings. You should be able to filter on any of them that interest you. T-n are the days leading up to earnings. T is the earning date according to yahoo finance, and T+n are the days after. Values are close to close % differences.


I was considering AZN…. This makes me consider it more with all the insider selling.

Just off the top of my head…

AutoZone, I believe at least one other competitor (O’Reillys, Advanced Auto, Napa Auto) already had earnings. Will check to see what they did and the details in ER reports about what was good / bad.

Darden (probably most famous of their chains is Olive Garden) is very interesting and could potentially be like docusign. While other restaurant chains have dropped 10%-15% in the past month, Darden has only dropped 2.5%. In the past 6 months, similar restaurant chains have dropped 30%+, and Darden is UP 6%… Either they are doing something very very right that nobody else in the industry can achieve (unlikely), or they are about to have the rug pulled out from under them.

ChargePoint - I believe one of their similar-sized competitors recently had earnings (blink?) and might uncover some interesting bits in their ER call.


I pushed the list of tickers in the spreadsheet to Finviz to make viewing charts on the lot a little easier (mainly to look for COVID bumps): Finviz Charts

LULU was also brought up in trading-floor and look like they could be a solid potential candidate for a drop on earnings:


I believe it was Advance Auto that had earnings recently.

CHPT is enticing due to the astronomical amount of insider selling that Finviz is suggesting.

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Do you guys think that there may be a put play with gme? similar to amc how it ran up until the last couple of minutes of the day, then dumpped?

Was reading through AAP (Advanced Auto Parts) and their earnings.

"*AAP reported adjusted earnings of $3.21 per share for third-quarter 2021 (ended Oct 9, 2021), increasing 21.6% from the prior-year figure. The reported figure also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.78 on higher-than-expected comps growth. *

Advance Auto generated net revenues of $2,621.2 million, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,564 million and rising 3.1% from the year-ago reported figure."

So looks like EPS beat and Revenue beat but it did tank from earnings.

However, I did see this. “However, we’re experiencing construction-related delays, primarily due to a much slower-than-normal permitting process. This is attributable to more stringent guidelines associated with COVID-19, which were exacerbated by the surge of the Delta variant. We now expect the majority of the store openings planned for 2021 to shift into 2022. As a result, we’re incurring start-up costs within SG&A for the balance of the year, while realizing less than planned revenue and income. The good news is, we remain confident that once converted, these stores will be accretive to our growth trajectory.”

Also this "Well, our transactions were down in the quarter primarily due to DIY, which is the majority of our total transactions, Michael. If you remember, last year we had very robust transaction growth in DIY. On the Pro side, our sales per account up double-digits. "

Mixed bag but with potentially growth pre-factored in that is being slowed down due to slower than expected expansion, that may have led to the down side. However, if AZO is not in the same situation, perhaps it does well?

I would guess that perhaps due to still slow auto manufacturing and used car prices still at pretty high levels, it would encourage more repairs and as a result more tools.


AZO is only at <20 P/E and seems to have tracked down with AAP (and SPY?) after their earnings. Their price has gone absolutely nuts since covid too, but its not at 60x price earnings like other companies. The two close to me are always busy. I imagine this could get a bump even if they don’t beat there expected eps by too much. Unless the market brings it down, and if it does it seems like a good buy.

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HQY looks intresting. ~4.5 billion market cap, income .7 m, puts them at a p/e of 3.99K. They’ve been on downtreand all year. Might be worth looking into why they are doing so bad. This could drop like a rock in this market.
There is no convenient reddit posts for these guys so it’s gonna take some work.
here is their earnings announcement: https://ir.healthequity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/healthequity-sets-date-announce-third-quarter-results-2
They just bought a company called Further, acquisitions could be the reason for the low eps and p/e


I noticed Sportsman’s Warehouse has earnings on Wednesday after close…

Back on Thursday after hours it was announced that the FTC wouldn’t allow the merger with Bass Pro (Great Outdoors Group LLC). Their stock dove over 20% overnight and the next day (Friday) it just flatlined…

Might be worth watching Monday to see if it decides to recover any or continue to decline. They have a pretty small market cap (just a little larger than Big Five which I’m sure everyone is familiar with).

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Trying to create prototype some pretty-looking ways to use this data

open to hearing what people want to see


This is really good stuff. Thanks for putting together.

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Dave & Busters is on my watchlist for earnings. they report tomorrow (Dec 7) AH. they’ve beaten estimates their last several quarters, however, their stock price hasn’t done much even with their beats:

last quarter reported: Sept 9
EPS - beat by 82%
Revenue - beat by 5%

stock price:
close on Sep 9 - $35.44
close on Sep 10 - $35.85

barely a move up and there wasn’t much run up to earnings.

quarter 1 reported: Jun 10
EPS - beat by 350%
Revenue - beat by 2%

stock price:
close on Jun 10 - $44.08
close on Jun 11 - $42.87

as of this writing, PLAY is up 8% for the day at $32.65. this feels like a runup to earnings. even if they beat, the past couple earnings indicates that they won’t move up much so the risk of playing puts is minimal.

i don’t have a position yet. my plan is to watch the price action tomorrow. if it continues to run/move up to earnings/close, i’ll be buying puts.

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Toll Brothers ($TOL) - ER Quick Note

Similar to other COVID plays being watched, TOL has ER AH on Tuesday.

While late in the game for run up, I would say they are consistent with the mantra of the pre- COVID companies that boomed. Trading around $30.67 in March 2020, the stock closed today at $70.85.

TOLL Brothers is a high end residential developer, which means higher labor, materials, higher cost of property to build on.

I Think guidance will be the concern with ER estimate of $2.48 and whisper to beat ER at $2.57. But going back to original point, it could be lumped in with COVID companies that boomed and dropped after earnings.


Just copying some recent marketplace and entrepreneur articles and info.


I’m holding 2 $63puts with 12/17 exp

Not sure how it will shake but just throwing out there. I know most of you are more skilled on Technicals etc.