Opening to foster discussion over this week’s earnings.
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@Catalyst_59 thanks for starting this. I hope to get us back into these and better research upfront and DD rather than just using the watchlist the night before or day of. Will review tonight and post more but want to possibly play Delta, progressive, and the banks this friday. These will all also be good to watch how they trend with SPY and XLF etc and then lets compare where they are over the last year, five years, if they are high or low on 52 week and what their competitors have come out with recently. Most airlines were ok but only that travel was increasing. Will need to review those more too but excited for JPM and other banks on friday for FD fun friday.
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Here we go:
Sportsman Warehouse 4-12 after close (SPWH) We have seen Dicks…sporting goods do well on most earnings and is near an all time high, Academy ASO near an all time high, and now SPWH. It’s near 52 week low and great support at 8/6, resistance 10/11 for 11.50 bigger break. Was in the 6 to 8 range pre covid, now almost 9 today as it is running with the market. Last December they beat but trended down to 8.50 ish and each of the last 2-3 earnings the EPS has been dropping and sales dropping. Q4 guidance was lowered so this may be near the bottom for a pop if they beat but lets see guidance. Also has much less stores than Dicks which is around 850, Academy around 268, and this has about 127. EPS has beat estimate the last 3 times. All about guidance though.
Delta: before open 4-13 near 52 week low or on the lower side, also near covid levels of 25-35 range. UAL and DAL didn’t run much last time but that was because other airlines reported earlier and they all ran and was already priced in. This time DAL has been pushing up since last Wed like most of the market. Support 32.50/33, resistance 36/38.Travel numbers continue to increase on TSA website.
Progressive: will finish tomorrow. and please add more.
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Here we go:
Sportsman Warehouse (SPWH) 4-12 after close We have seen Dicks…sporting goods do well on most earnings and is near an all time high, Academy ASO near an all time high, and now SPWH. It’s near 52 week low and great support at 8/6, resistance 10/11 for 11.50 bigger break. Was in the 6 to 8 range pre covid, now almost 9 today as it is running with the market. Last December they beat but trended down to 8.50 ish and each of the last 2-3 earnings the EPS has been dropping and sales dropping. Q4 guidance was lowered so this may be near the bottom for a pop if they beat but lets see guidance. Also has much less stores than Dicks which is around 850, Academy around 268, and this has about 127. EPS has beat estimate the last 3 times. All about guidance though.
Delta (DAL): before open 4-13 near 52 week low or on the lower side, also near covid levels of 25-35 range. UAL and DAL didn’t run much last time but that was because other airlines reported earlier and they all ran and was already priced in. This time DAL has been pushing up since last Wed like most of the market. Support 32.50/33, resistance 36/38.Travel numbers continue to increase on TSA website.
(Update: AAL pre released some numbers and their guidance is a bit below for revenue and EPS came in lower. That is the reason for airlines dropping today. Said Rev per seat came in at 25.5% prior estimate was 24% to 27% so was a meh average outcome).
Progressive: will finish tomorrow. and please add more.
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Guess we will see how SPWH trends but earnings not great and guidance down so it is down 12% now and already fairly low. Unless something changes, not playing this one.
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DAL earnings summary https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/delta-air-lines-inc-q1-earnings-summary?theme=2&color=2
FAST earnings summary https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/fastenal-co.-profit-climbs-in-q1-beats-estimates
PGR earnings not out yet.
Sorry I can’t do more, time to take kids to school.
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For DAL support 32.50 and 34 if it drops, still low on 52 week high and PT coming out around 50. Will like to see it show strength if spy drops but earnings were a small miss but rev up. Guidance somewhat strong for the summer. If I try calls it will be on support bounces and maybe a week out but not sure on this one yet.
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So reviewing todays plays, both DAL and PGR dropped at open and continued to drop until finding support. Each had a big push back up after dropping but then traded sideways while SPY ran hard. I tried to time the bottom on DAL and played a week out. Had ti average down at 32.50 support to get out, then it ran up almost 80% so was a tough play. This wasn’t ideal and prob should have avoided it once we saw weakness vs the market. PGR rejected 140 and held that 138 all day. I tried twice to get puts on rejections but didn’t get low fill so never played it. Curious on PT for it but prob avoid with tomorrows earnings.
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Ok we have some big ones in the morning.
PNC
BLK
JPM in the middle price vs last few years and higher on 52 week scale.
UNH near all time high.
C
WFC lower on 52 week scale and near lower price over last few years.
UNH and BLK options will be much pricier than the others too.
Will have SPY and XLF up and XLH if trading these to watch overall segments. My favorite prob UNH and JPM but will need to do deep dive later tonight and in am when they announce. We need people on the earnings calls to help listen if we want a runner. Will add more asap but placeholder and others please add.
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JPM beats: JPMorgan Chase GAAP EPS of $4.10 beats by $0.69, revenue of $38.3B beats by $2.53B | Seeking Alpha
- EPS of $4.10 beats by $0.69.
- Revenue of $38.3B (+24.8% Y/Y) beats by $2.53B.
EDIT: And WFC beats and PNC beats EPS, barely misses revenue:
WFC:
- EPS $1.23 VS EST $1.13
- Rev: $20.73B, EST. $20.03B
PNC:
- EPS $3.98 Beats v $3.67 est
- Rev: Sales $5.60B v Miss $5.61B est
Going to be an interesting day for big banks!
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So far I like PNC the most as they are down substantially in comparison to the rest over 20 percent in last 3 months. Also interesting note in PNCs print stood out in larger picture.
Delinquencies were down.
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Do you still like PNC the best? trending the worst and missed sales.
So far I think top are WFC and JPM
WFC due to being lower price vs last few years, middle of the road for 52 week high, trending up still in pre market, options cheaper, Rev rose 17% and beat all. 39.5/40.5 support, 42/44 resistance.
JPM seems strongest as earnings call already happening too and their earnings is very strong. Rev up 25% and beat all and big increase from year over year. earnings call now but jumped higher than other banks in pre market. Support 134/132 but is holding this 136 for now, resistance 138/140 and if it really pushes resistance 144. Using the word fortress in call lmao. This will be more expensive than WFC and riskier though too.
XLF could be the safer play for a week out. Support 33 and 32.80
BAC could also be less risky as they have earnings next week and you could look for a week out on calls but see how this trends with the other banks and market. This be sympathy play tho. Banks volume slowing down but that is expected before open. Will add more as I see it
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JPM held up best PNC weak now. I’m probably leaning more towards JPM as others calls are during market hours. Maybe then after call
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