$ENPH - sunset on solar?

Don’t want to start too many threads and clog up the forums but if anyone has any expertise or knowledge in the solar industry, would welcome their thoughts on Enphase Energy Inc.?

I just find the chart interesting and it’s taking a big dive today approachign support at around 280.50. Also, it looks to me like it has big gaps to fill around 07/25-07/28. Earnings a month away on 10/25 after market.

Weekly options and well-developed chains but IV is at 67%.


After starting this thread, IB reminded me in the $ENPH newsfeed the correlation with growth stocks and treasury yields:

When you see the sharp rises in the 10-Yr, you can see this is where $ENPH starts to trade choppy or even decline (the blue line is the 10-Yr):

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Since this is Bullish on the bigger macros (D, W, M)…

The only obvious targets for me are the latest gap-ups on the Daily chart:

  • 258
  • 219
  • 196

I actually think it’s only at the start of a Long Distribution era.
So, 258 might be the only viable target here.

It is a small float with 131.712M shares, so volatility can be a good ride.
It loves gapping up, though, best be quick to exit Puts and switch to Calls right after, or stay out on the sidelines until new direction is confirmed after one of those gaps I listed gets filled.
Should it decide to continue downward, 106-110 may prove to be a strong support yet again.

Regarding demand, it is there, and growing faster.
Here in my neighborhood, a good number of homes have adopted Solar Panels.
We have actually just completed the transition ourselves.
A newly sold and renovated home on the next block also installed Solar Panels 2months ago.

Maybe someone else can help contribute about specific business stats.



Thanks so much, rexxar, for looking at this!

Just came across this article that supports your post about growing and increasing demand, especially in Europe as energy prices soar, for Enphase’s microinverter:

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Good stuff bro. Love to help where possible.
It might really try to hold over 250, so I wouldn’t rush piling up on puts just yet.
In this bear market, there will be a few stocks that will hold their value.
Track this one for that possibility.


Another potential candidate is $RUN, however, whereas $ENPH is a manufacturer and researcher, $RUN is an installer.

$RUN also, imo, overhired through 2019-2021. I can’t imagine there’s a lot of demand right now for solar installations, though looking above seems demand is still there?
A quick glance at Glassdoor shows that they’ve been laying a lot of people off in 2022.
I noticed other installers like $NOVA, $SPWR, and $CSIQ haven’t been doing well, though $CSIQ is probably the strongest of the lot.

Thanks so much again to @rexxxar for calling out levels. Looks like $ENPH is now filling the gap down. It’s been getting traction on fintwit during the last two bullish days for being a top short pick. As Beaker alluded to in VC, some feel the P/E of 177 is just overpriced and that’s the sentiment on fintwit.

Maybe a sign of things to come, where we can vet stickers that are trading relatively high with a high P/E? With earnings coming up, these may be the first legs to fall.

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I did find an article saying they started selling residential solar in India today. Not sure why it would be bearish…

All alt/green energy took a shit today–it’s not just ENPH.
Likely correlation with the oil news.

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