Relative to other SPACs approaching vote, ESSC puts are 3x cheaper.
I think there’s a good chance the floor will be removed by Feb 18.
ESSC must merge by Feb 24 or liquidate according to filings. In recent memory many optionable SPACs have their floor removed a week or more before merger. SEAH has its vote on the 26th but floor removed Jan 20. That was a 7 bagger for me. See also TREB, HLGN
ESSC has incentive to cash out before Feb 15, to avoid a cybersecurity review per new Chinese regulations. Even though Chinese security law is transparent and straightforward. See their latest SEC filing.
Or they could throw it all away. Considering this, ITM puts might be safer if you get a good fill.
They must give at least 10 days advance notice for the vote so if you want cheap puts, get them soon.
Worth noting that Mar puts are also relatively cheap.
When you say have their floor removed, do you mean the NAV floor?. Sorry, I’m a novice, so I’m not sure exactly what this post is getting at. Can you say it in other terms?
It really should be a good play to buy puts. We know the merger might fail and that even if it goes through that the company is worthless. A dump in the days to weeks after merger would not be surprising. Forget all the past memories with essc I guess. Maybe this will be some good p&l fixing.
It’s got potential, I’d watch sentiment though considering we did the full DD work up and the majority of bears were just bullshitting over a perceived “grudge with Valhalla”. I’d say there’s a slight possibility someone takes the setup we’ve established and tries to run with it considering the float is still hyper small.
Could there be a case in which we see a run up before the merger date followed by a large dump? I could see this being a viable play with the current state in which the market is in. Lots of hopium around all red stocks and people looking for another play. However, we would need the help of reddit and twitter to ramp this up big time. I’d imagine $10c and $12.5c are just as cheap at this point. Just my 2 cents thinking we could take another stab at this with a different approach.
In no way do I see this running to $15 or more again. Maybe a small pop on the vote announcement, but nothing big IMO. I’m never buying an ESSC call again lol.
I reserve the right to change my opinion if I see some big reddit/twitter sentiment that’s separate from this server.
I feel ya on that one. I burned myself twice due to greed, but it is what it is. The set up was great, and to me it still is in a way. The stock has all the right tools. We still have time to use them. It’s just the execution that needs to be done differently. We don’t need to see a test of ath, but with how much we understand this stock I feel we are leaving some cards on the table still. The taste is still bitter in our mouths, but maybe turn these lemons into some lemonade with one last play.
The only way I see a pop is if there ends up being a large number of shorted shares (like 1M+), trading volume stays low, and then the vote is announced and most of the outstanding shares end up being recalled as part of the vote. Fintel shows that there are 800,000 shares available to short right now, so some of those must be BI shares. The BI’s need to have the shares in hand for the vote, they can’t be lending them at that time.
I don’t think they will mess with the Cybersecurity Law, let alone front run it. JHD cannot deal with the ire of the government.
At this point, I think it’s more likely that the whole deal will be scuttled. Whether ESSC folds too or gives itself time to find another deal is unclear.
Fwiw, I also have the Feb puts from back when this was running up, and got them cheap
What happens if the company shuts down? Puts are worth the strike price? Is it different in this case because the shares get paid back based on the trust NAV?
