$EXPR earnings play/general downtrend signals

Ticker: $EXPR

Any thoughts would be amazing, please tear this apart as I don’t know what I’m doing and stand on the shoulders of the giants with real knowledge here.

This is a play inspired by the recent earnings debacles for $JWN and $GPS. $EXPR has seen it’s 20EMA fall below the 50EMA and the 200EMA over the past 2 months. This leads us to current earnings on Dec 2, where we are trending is similar to the past 2 dates which both resulted in a drop in stock price even when outperforming price targets.

Express are currently launching a program to try to capitalize off of “influencers” in the hopes of fueling a billion-dollar ecommerce transformation.


They have expressed the need to win back customers, and have launched a pilot program for “boutique” style smaller locations with curated selections.

Their CFO recently left after 22 years to join 99 Cents Only Stores, a company with a much smaller profile and footprint.


Supply chain issues and labor shortages this past year in conjunction with an expected 0.02 for this quarter lead me to believe they will not be able to meet expectations and follow their retail cousins in falling off the face of the earth. However, while $EXPR is generally associated with meme stocks and has obviously seen that volatility raise their profile among traders this year, I don’t believe their clientele base is as strong as it once was and that there are other big ecommerce players farther along in the game of social media engagement and brand marketing.

I’m looking at 12/17 $4.50p, $4p currently, I’m going to monitor this coming week to see if the price drops as the stock might trend upwards before the date as it has the past two earnings. Currently OI is heavily favored towards calls but I’m thinking that might be a case of leaps bought ITM earlier this year.

Welcome and thank you for this DD! Express feels very past its prime to me, so I’m interested :thinking:

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So I’m not doubting that they’ll likely dump, but I’m having a hard time finding a put that won’t get IV crushed even if it drops a good bit.

Jesus, Express is still around???

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Keep in mind Express is most definitely one of those OG meme stocks and as such the price movement is not always rational and subject to sympathy movement from the others in the group.

thanks for the DD! i am a bit skeptical though of playing this though. similiar to what thots said, with the current overall downtrend, it leads me to thinking their bad earnings is already priced in. i think buying puts might lead you getting IV crushed as the price is already pretty low. for now, im going to sit this one out unless i see this jump up and maybe we can ride the IV increase before earnings