FB - Don't bet against Zuck

If you’ve been in the market at all the last week, you know that FB didn’t have their best earnings. It is currently trading at Pre-pandemic levels and has been searching for a bottom over the last few trading sessions.

Facebook has 2.89 billion users worldwide. Instagram has over a billion users worldwide. The global population is 7.75 billion. At 3.89 billion accounts, somewhere in the ballpark of half of the entire human population uses a meta application.

Knowing that, I can understand being skeptical of Meta being able to capture more ad revenue from it’s users. But if you think facebook is going bankrupt, or even that it won’t grow at all, when it’s already consumed close to half the earth in it’s social media cesspool, you are literally retarded. Several continents would have to be destroyed to seriously harm Meta’s userbase.

Oculus was the top downloaded app in the US on Christmas day. META owns 5 of the top 10 downloaded apps that day in the US and 4 on the global list.

  1. $50 billion in cash after their $19 billion buyback
  2. It has a P/E of 16, a 4:1 asset/liability ratio, 65% YoY increase in cash flow, and currently trades at 15x FCF. $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOG, and $TSLA have a P/E of 25-188 (lol), higher debt ratios, lower margins (FB gross margin is 80%), and trade at 27-272x FCF (guess who’s at 272)
  3. Weekly (and daily) RSI are the most oversold they’ve been since the post-IPO dump, and the weekly is curling to put in a bottom
  4. It bounced off the May 2018 and Feb 2020 high today, delicious

Facebook is a leader in social media that isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. It may take a a while for FB to bottom out, but the likelihood that this correction was an overreaction is high enough for me to look at FB as a buy.

I’m looking to enter $200 leaps and sell CCs off a green day.


I agree with your thesis and the fact that FB right now is at a huge discount. How far out are your leaps?


I’m looking to enter April 2023 or later. It looks like January 2024 has the best liquidity


Awesome, I’ll prob put some money there to keep for the long haul. Thanks holi!


I suggest people who believe TikTok will continue to dig into FB’s market share watch this video by Hank Green, it does not bode well for TikTok:

In the immediate I do believe TikTok poses a threat to FB, but long term FB will outlast. The way TikTok is trending, it is not sustainable.

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I’m super bullish on FB, and I think this past quarter ER was a publicity stunt TBH.

Right before earnings, the Senate Judiciary committee approved to reopen the antitrust suit against a few of the big tech companies.

On the FB earnings call, they mentioned TikTok over 30 times on the call and how it is growing much faster. They put a ton of emphasis on this and it leads me to think that they are trying to let it be known that they are not a monopoly.

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The Options Bot - seems to like FB - Discord

I grabbed a handful -

The OTM 2DTE 240c has 26k OI and the 9DTE 250c has 26k OI.

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Should these this morning for about 30% profit - not a bad deal

Note: don’t trust the bot blindly

Grabbed some longer FB calls on the dip this morning to start playing a bit longer, came across this article. Might be reasoning for an upcoming catalyst?

We broke a few major support lines, and with general market risk off, I see decend probabilities that this could fall to 195$ next week or so.

I’m expecting 175 and 150 levels to be revisited on a negative catalyst (Ukraine, aggressive interest rate increase or major upswing in inflation #'s) with a close below 150 with an accellerated drop to previous lows/support

My play is to get 1 and 2 years out LEAPS at each of these levels with a major trading plan review on a close under 150$

I’ve also seen a lot of “land” transactions on Metaverse worlds, which I can only assume it will bring speculators (ie users) to metaverse and once this will egnerate enough buzz around it, it will gather critical mass of users to push FB up to close that gap (which is my TP)