This has been a thing for a while now where SPY has had volatile movement after FOMC Minutes/Meetings.
I’m personally expecting a downtrend leading into 2:00PM. Then seeing a reversal for a quick swing.
I’ll be swinging SPY Monthly Calls 1-2 strikes OTM a couple minutes before the release, though anyone trying to get in-and-out should be trying to get something cheaper if they don’t plan to holding past this week let alone into Thursday.
If anyone can provide examples of days where FOMC Minutes effected SPY, that’d be a lot of help. Sorry if this post doesn’t have enough context or even content for that matter. Busy day today and this play is on short notice.
If you’re getting into this play tomorrow, make sure to have a strict risk tolerance. SPY is played mostly through sentiment and if any bad news comes from the FOMC, this planned bullish swing can flop.
The past two FOMC minutes that were relased Nov24th and Oct13th saw SPY have different directions. October traded sideways after release and gapped up the next day from 434-439 and ran that day to 442. Nov minutes released and SPY ran up to eod of day and dumped from 470 AH to 461 on open and bottom out at 456. thats just from the chart w/o other news
Looks like this ended up being a flop. Sadly (thankfully) I ended up too busy flipping burgers today that I couldn’t follow through with my strategy. I did end up buying the dip however, so here’s to hoping we make it back to 479 in the following week.
In hindsight, I think the next time FOMC plays are made, I’m instead going to suggest to buy the news for a quick scalp. Although you aren’t making as much money due to not buying the bottom and the premium being jacked up due to delta movement, you’re also not in as big of a risk as if it goes the opposite way. Also why I mentioned playing this with a strict risk tolerance.
I’ll also try to post these SPY related plays earlier so it’s not last minute. Let’s hope the market doesn’t decide to crash overnight.
Make sure when playing FOMC minutes that it’s just for that single one minute candle. That’s all that FOMC minutes is meant to be it’s not a intra day move it’s a single candle.
