FOMC Rate Decision Release Day (not MINS day)

Education Data
21

Looks like they will be hawkish on the terminal rate being higher than is currently priced in. More like 5.5% or 5.25%.

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22

The current disinflationary moves are transitory, (improving commodity market, warmer winter in Europe, etc.) the Fed is viewing them as counter-trend.

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23

Jpow did not talk down the markets, he seems to have diverged from the notes.

24

Seems like the Fed is going to stop fighting the tape, acknowledging the bond market might be right at this point.

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25

Key takeaways from FOMC yesterday:

  1. Press conference demeanor more important than formal statement.
  2. Basically said if financial conditions need to tighten, market will take care of it; let’s see how it plays out.
  3. Used term “disinflationary” just as Bullard did in recent weeks.
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