Recently Ford had a great runup from just under 13 to 20.51. They have had bullish news after bullish news. Good earnings, getting into EVs, holding large amount of shares in Rivian (RIVN),Infrastructure bill, etc. However, it has tested 20.50 and been rejected twice in the last five days. I will be watching this one to see if it tests and fails again to scalp/swing puts and see if it drops back down to test 19.50 support. Also, watch if it fails to push up/break 19.50 again. If it drops, look for 18 and 17.50 support. This is a short term play and depends on market, news dropping, and other factors I can’t foresee. RSI on the yearly chart hit its high at about 83 the last few days so we may have already missed the best entry for some puts.
| Nov-02-21 |
Reiterated |
Jefferies |
Buy |
$17 → $20 |
| Nov-02-21 |
Downgrade |
Nomura |
Neutral → Reduce |
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| Oct-20-21 |
Upgrade |
Credit Suisse |
Neutral → Outperform |
$15 → $20 |
| There was some insider selling shares over the last few days but not a lot. It also looks like option chain got extended today with new strikes being added for NOV 12th 30.50 to 33. I may take some FD’s calls or puts depending on how this moves tomorrow. |
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| Good info at this link on F too - F - Ford Motor Company Stock Price and Quote
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| Also this news was recent Ford Wins $8.2B Contract From General Services Administration For ‘2022 Light Vehicles to include Sedans, Light Trucks, and SUVs’ |
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Lotta red on the right side of that chart. I’ve been eyeballing the drop also. Seems like they r overvalued on ev and infrastructure hype to me.
Keep in mind they announced last week that they are reinstating dividends and they also are doing a stock buy back $2B to clear some debt. I’m long on F with stocks and contracts. My calls were so deep out the money (bought in Dec) and are for 2023 $20 strike, that I can’t even close them because I got over a 16 months left.
Thanks for the reminder. Saw that in news and should have also called that out. Def thinking this is a short term play for the next few days or next week at the max. I am still weary on Ford as this company has struggled for a long time and was trending down prior to covid and EV crap.
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Yes, while ford seems bullish on themselves, this run up is way too correlated to ev and infrastructure bull moves. They (Ford) might for real know something that we don’t with the buybacks and gov meetings though. I guess my ultimate bear Ford position without looking extremely deep into it might be based on the new mustang being ugly at and the bronco troubles that seem to plague all Ford products.
Also this award from sams.gov Ford Wins $8.2B Contract From General Services Administration For ‘2022 Light Vehicles to include Sedans, Light Trucks, and SUVs’
Which was one of those things I did not know. They might get gov props to hold them up for the next few years. F… I got look at this on Sunday too
My fan boy rebuttle (lol): Yes Ford has been on a downtrend basically forever lol. But there are some caveats to that. In 2008 when everyone was hurting, they never took bail out money and restructured and righted the ship. Like other American institution companies (GM, GE, steel, banks) their stock was for hodl’rs for dividends; old money, old thinking. Today we have new generational blood pumping stocks. Add this to Fords consistency to not be arrogant and move with the tide and you got a recipe fore finding a value in and around $30. For example, their car tech has always been #1 until tesla, they are going whole home in the next few years. They bought a home solar company early last year (like tesla), the F150 Lighting can power your home for nearly 7 days as a back up battery, and finally the fan boys. Those of us who will only buy outside of Ford if our local dealer hires noobs who don’t treat us well, so we teach them a lesson lol. We havent seen these levels since 20(10, 13/14) when there was no news. For trading and scalping…yeah ford is never a play, it moves to slow, but what we are seeing here are some great moves from definite catalyst
So far buying puts at the top gave 20% profit, so this worked.
Closed puts earlier today, bought calls figuring the runup from new price target. Closed those and rebought same puts for 20 strike at the peak today. Currently up 22% on them and likely will close tomorrow. I may get blown out, but I don’t think Ford will run. On the monthly charts RSI is high. It also has been bouncing in-between 19 to now a high of 20.75 price. Need to keep adding to the DD here, but I think it needs more than news of a price target of 22 to really move up. They also backed out of the deal with Rivian but hold a lot of their shares that are also locked up. Each play on support and then resistance on ford are averaging around 20% each time.
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