GLD- a golden opportunity

Hello everybody I’ve got a dd on the spdr gold trust gld, gold prices have been on a tear recently and I think the price is setting up for a pretty rapid upwards move this week.


Gold has been at a rapid increase these last weeks for a few reasons.

1.) bond yields have been dropping. Since December 20th 10 year bond yields have dropped from 131.62 to 130.34, this is important because investors consider both these safe haven assets so as yields decrease it makes gold seem more attractive.

2.) us central bank balance sheet reports a high or 8.79 trillion dollars which adds to debt worries all uncertainty around the economy helps gold prices.

3.) the US dollar had been dropping since December 20th it’s dropped 96.61 to 95.69 this is bullish for gold because it’s considered a safety net over the US dollar.

4.) Omicron variation still is making investors cautious the more uncertainty in the market the better for gold prices.

5.) inflation is rising makes some investors more nervous about the economy and seek haven in gold (even though historically gold isn’t a proven hedge against inflation what’s more important is the psychology of the fact rather the economics)

If we see these trends stay steady into next week we could see gold future prices soar over the 1833 resistance level in November we saw after a break of 1833 it fly to 1867 within two days.

Technicals on the gld trust.

Looking at this chart you can see what happened the last time gold was at these levels.

After bouncing off the 171.32 area the next day you can see it ran up on the pre market hours from 170.38 to the 174.5 area.

Looking at the chart below you can see the volume at the price levels on the right with the volume profile, after the 171.27 level volume thins out until the 173.48 area this could create a quote on quote smoothing sailing area for the price.

Looking historically you can see a lot of bounces off of this 171.36 line causing down trends in both august and September adding to my theory of seeing critical resistance around the 171.27-171.36 area

The price is currently at1 70.02 right now my hypothesis is that if we see a break of the 171.27-171.36 area we could see a big move up in the gld trust in the coming days, I will be watching this chart as well as monitoring futures to see if we have a continuation of the trend (bond yields lowering, dollar value lowering, and gold prices rising) going into next week and if it holds we could see a good opportunity to catch a run up in the gld trust.

This is my first dd so I would love to here opinions and critiques around the play and the dd itself


Gold is a good option especially if physical and in bar form. Paper gold is often still underground.

Interesting. The options saw some nice movement last trading day. I have never ever traded metals though. Want to see more input on this. Nice work!

Checked out the UW flow. About 50/50 split on bull vs bear premiums on Friday. Interestingly a minute after close, a Floor trader bought 2000 February 172c and 2000 March 175c.

Here’s a screenshot of the Biggest Option Trades for the day, with the above noted flows in the 2nd and 3rd row.

Flows >$50K and <90dte — Looks quite bullish, especially those Floor trades at end of day.

Chart looks good too imo. Nice uptrend with higher lows, and breakout over ~171-171.30 looks pretty clean to 175. That’s a 2.3% move from 171 to 175 but that’s huge for the options at 12% IV.


Just wanted to provide in update. The price on gold went up to 1833 as expected but unfortunately we did not see a break it bounced off then retested and has been negative since. One of two possible reasons either 1.) just a normal correction after a bull run or 2.) fomc on Wednesday investors expecting more on interest rate hikes and asset tapers both bearish for gold. I personally thought this to already be priced in but I will continue to watch it leading up into Wednesday to see if we retest the 1833/171.30 level later in the week.


50,500 call spreads for June made today

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Some additional due diligence as fomc approaches.

Thank you to @kevin for providing bull/bear flow. I saw the huge buy on a bull spread for June and upon looking at the option chain saw it was very heavily skewed towards bulls 41,843 otm put oi vs 123,600 otm call oi (2.95 times higher) which got me digging a little deeper because I assumed the yearly outlook was bearish from what I read on news articles.

Gold usually moves opposite to bond yields both being safe haven assets if bonds have high yields investors prefer bonds of gold.

So how does the feds tapering plan effect gold prices? Looking at the ten year treasury yields below you can see they took a nose dive during covid times. The fed announced quantitative easing to help out bond yields raising yields steady till where we are today.

As with all federal stimulus it must come to an end eventually which was announced in November the fed will be tapering bond purchases which will lower yields on bonds causing gold to be more appealing. I read an article saying bond purchase tapering will continue into June, this could explain the oi in June as investors know yields will decline steadily until at least June. I’m having trouble finding this article again I will post it when I can find it again.

Below is the chart for the spot price of gold the line represents November third the date where we saw bond purchase tapering announced. It continues to decline that day before starting its big run up.

Getting to fomc this afternoon I’ll be listing for more on bond tapering this could be a catalyst to push gold over that 1833 level and gld over 171.30 to see a run to 175


Been a little while since an update. Following lasts weeks fomc meeting we heard a hawkish stance on interest rate hikes from the fed, which is bearish for gold as anything that alludes to controlling inflation is counter to gold being a strong asset in times of inflation. But regardless we’ve seen a bit of a comeback over the last couple days and are approaching the magical 1833 number again. It’s looking like a bit of a pull back today, I’ll be continuing to monitor prices going into next week to see if we start to push the 1833 price range.

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Some crazy call bets being placed today

Lots of 1 and 8 dte above 100k

And a damn near 1 million dollar order with only 8 days until expiration

Archiving this thread as increasing pressure from the fed is keeping gold prices down we may not see the break I was looking for.

Planning on writing another gold dd looking at longer term puts.

Reopening the thread after today saw a crazy bounce. we are now over the level I was waiting for and looking to make an entry on a pull back

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Gold fell below 1833 support then came back up and over early in the day. But seems to have pulled a crazy reversal in the last hour and is back in the 1840 zone.

Looking for a break now of yesterdays highs then a break of 1850 should bring us close to that 1880 zone.

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Seems that my play ended up failing I was expecting a rapid upswing after a 171.30 break but didn’t seem to occur and came back down to the 171 area.

Still think there is a short term bull case considering the environment where the break happened was with treasury yields being the highest the have been in a long time could indicate another bull thesis I am missing for gold:

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