This is a gamble, and past performance does not dictate the results of the coming report, but with an expected move of +/- 21.40 and a market maker move of +/- 18.76, selling 20 strike wide iron flies feels like a good fit to play the earnings in order to maximize your profit without risking your shirt.
I’ll be taking my position the last minute or two of market open, because that is when IV spikes the highest and you can sell the closest to ATM straddle going into close
If (when…) this post-earnings rally turns around, we might fall right back to the $80 line. Perhaps soon. Puts still rather expensive though (what’s new…), so can’t take longer term bets - will have to keep an eye for those daily gap moves down.
This can’t be right - almost looks like a wedge setup, with a potential breakout to a $200 target. i’m not sure when the stock dividend happens, but if it’s not too soon and we can get a summer run, I’m actually thinking about some 1-2 month dated 200 strike calls. the chart technicals suggest this could work with the right catalyst. Change my mind?
Not so certain anyone should have to change your mind. TA probably isn’t the best used on meme stock. Could it run to 200 maybe could it more than likely run sub 100 probably. Wish you luck though.
Hah! I see what you did there. Part of the problem is clearly too many options, not enough shares, and too much shorting when the technicals seem like they will align and make the stock run. There’s no way that call buyers immediately sell all their options at key levels and make the stocks dump. Personally, often I find that consolidation periods make the best time to grab 3-4 week calls because they’ll pop out of nowhere (like GME recently, and even AMC, or even DWAC yesterday - where there were some block trades and the stock was flat for 3 days while the buys were happening, and it popped today). But, someone else was also thinking about a 200 price target, because I did see some sweeps, not just block trades for July expiry 150 and 200 strike calls executed today, at ask.
In a lower IV environment, it can make sense to buy far OTM strikes with enough DTE for runway as subsequent price volatility means one profits even if price doesn’t make more than part of the way there. There is some support for this, as IV rank is 37%, so IV is only 37% of the way along the yearlong min-max. But they have to get lucky in terms of days - IV percentile is 70%, so only 30% of days has IV been lower.
Sure. I’m not logged into any option flow services right now, so I’ll just tell you the two from memory. Both were July 15 expiry, so 43DTE.
The 150 strike call order was about 144K in premium, and the 200 strike call order was about 98K in premium. I’m going to track the chains over the next few days to see if OI and volume builds at those strikes from sweeps, rather than just block trades. If they do in sufficient quantity and the underlying remains relatively flat, the risk/reward starts getting attractive. Especially at a .20 delta or even a .40 delta.
GME had decent earnings, almost breaking even by slashing SG&A. Top line did not grow though. They have $1B in cash, and little debt, so small chance of dilution.
The ability for them to slash their SG&A, reduce their footprint without having a major impact to their sales was definitely a good sign.
However, my concern is this. Where is the company going to get their growth from?
Hardware growth is slowing. 597.0M in Q2, 725.8 in Q1. We will have to see when the next gen of consoles will come out but since PS and Xbox all came out with one semi recently, it won’t be for another probably 3-4 years if not longer.
Iirc, don’t consoles cycle like 5-8yrs?
Also the release of any major games has been pretty light lately.
The next big release of a game from Blizzard would be CoD which isn’t until Nov iirc which would fall in Q4.
So all other sales such as software and collectibles without any major releases would also decrease imo at least for the upcoming Q3.
Sure some minor euphoria could be seen with posting less of a loss than expected but I don’t see that last long.
GME is lucky that some of the game devs, writers, etc aren’t unionized and affected by the Hollywood strike.
Instead of breaking out, they seem to make lower highs and then stat out.
