GOEV - Nov 19th gamma play DD - Help Wanted

[ElevenFortyFive]

Ticker: GOEV
Description of why you are requesting DD: Help determining if a gamma play is possible here, TA on the current chart, and PTs to aim for if so

Summary:
Canoo ($GOEV) has had a rough time as a stock for the past year. SPAC → management overhall → reddit pumps → etc. However, I think there may be an opportunity for a gamma squeeze on the Nov 19th options. I’m ignoring all the other reasons why I think this company is primed for the long term and will instead focus on the most recent news and upcoming opportunity.

OI is pretty jacked:

Strike Last     Bid     Ask     Change %Change Vol  OI     IV
2.50	4.67	4.60	4.80	-0.13	-2.71%	2	64	    242.19%
5.00	2.19	2.05	2.35	-0.11	-4.78%	11	823	    113.28%
7.50	0.55	0.50	0.55	+0.05	+10.00%	61	4,129	76.17%
10.00	0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.04	+40.00%	85	15,697	25.00%
12.50	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	-	    110	13,211	116.41%
15.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	+0.02	+66.67%	5	8,389	118.75%
17.50	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	-	    6	3,084	139.06%
20.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	-    	5	3,483	154.69%
22.50	0.03	0.00	0.05	-0.02	-40.00%	1	630 	168.75%
25.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	-	    1	452	    181.25%
30.00	0.03	0.00	0.05	0.00	-	    3	5,302	203.13%

Recent news articles:

• Nominated for Red Dot: Luminary design award
• eCarra CEO saying he is purchasing “100+ [vehicles] to start”
• Incentive package for Canoo’s Oklahoma factory from Middle America Industrial Park leaked. ~100M in cash and land incentives IN ADDITION to the OK State incentives.
• Opened pre-orders for their delivery vehicle (MPDV) in Mexico and Canada

Upcoming Catalysts:

• Upcoming Q3 Earnings - unannounced but Q2 was 06/30 so likely will be around end of October
• CEO exercised an option agreement to purchase 56 million shares and his most recent form 4 should be filed in the next few weeks.

Risks:

• Lacking strong catalyst at the moment (though there is speculation of potential partnerships with Walmart and West Virginia for the curious…)
• Volume on these options is pretty low so liquidity might be a problem
• Most of the OI is not yet ATM and the bulk of the OI is at the $10 and $12.5 strikes and 2.5 dollars between each strike seems high to climb

What am I missing? Please help point out any holes or false assumptions, thanks! =]

$GOEV trading at $7.20 at the time of writing

[ElevenFortyFive]

Earnings were great IMO. Moved UP production which is unheard of for an EV startup, more state incentives, HQ moving to same city as Walmart, big hiring spree, etc.

Fight is currently just under $10 which has absolutely massive OI for friday.

[Joshua_S]

That’s where I live. Very cool.

[OtherJim]

Looks like this ripped today. Good call out.

I have not yet learned how to interpret this data in regard to any potential squeezyness. But I thought I’d post it here for reference.

[Djhoegs]

The option chain has expanded since and OI is even higher. Looks like it could blow like an 8 year old on a tilt-a-whirl after 3 funnel cakes.

Can someone pull the current OI total and the short info again?

[Kevin]

I’m in with 12/17 12.5c

I see that caddude is also swinging this play

Looked at Unusual Whales and I see very bullish flow:

[Kevin]

Canoo Accelerates Production Plans, Wins $100 Million in New Incentives | The...

[ElevenFortyFive]

running nicely in AH too… looks good for tomorrow and thursday

[Djhoegs]

The $12.5 calls ITM now

[Conqueror]

GOEV is catching heavy sentiment. Short interest is actually notable and squeezable in this one. We need some research on catalysts from here forward.

Mimir:

[Kevin]

Today’s biggest options flow

[caughtaweetroot]

For traceability of Trading Floor:

1. GOEV announced they are moving their HQ to Walmart’s town so Twitter a frenzy with rumours of an announcement (Canoo moves to Walmart’s hometown - The Verge)
2. Tony Aquila, CEO and Founder, bought this AH yesterday!
   

[ElevenFortyFive]

Other Near-term(ish) Catalysts:

• LPO should be announcing bid winners for projects at the end of the year/beginning of next year. I would expect Canoo to have a bid here considering their focus on state govs and President who is an Ambassador.
• The CEO’s share purchase agreement for the 56 million shares mentioned in the post was modified. The form 4 for the sale of 35M dropped this week and there is another tranche of 18M that is expected to be sold in December.

Other more speculative and fuzzy-date catalysts that could pop up soon:

• New analyst coverage
• State gov contracts announced for AR, WV
• WMT partnership
• Update on pre-orders
• Sedan reveal

[Esports_Psycho]

Similar setup to AUR when the rumour about their partnership was announced.
EVGO is setting up a new production facility in Walmart so it’s rumoured to have a partnership . Possible wedge up also the Ceo made a 230 Million share purchase yesterday as well. Getting lotto calls

[Esports_Psycho]

Short interest at 33%

I’m seeing a increasing trend of comments on reddit,twitter and stocktwits right now,
Wallstreet bets it’s picking this up more, Might make it jump a bit.

[Djhoegs]

It’s jumpin

[Esports_Psycho]

Already at %142 of its daily volume in only the first 3 hours. Potential runner. If you want to lotto $12.5C they are piss cheap.

[yunggz]

How long is everyone holding till?

[HypnoDoge]

GOEV ended the day at $12.44, this is looking good if we continue the steady price action.

[TheMadBeaker]

I know this is all speculation, but if I happen to see any suspicious new walmart branded vehicles around the home office I’ll be sure to snap a pic.

As of right now at the Supercenter #100 located across from the home office they are using just a regular ford transit van with I’m guessing some sort of refrigeration unit inside for home delivery (of groceries and other goods). This location usually has a lot of corporate people and vendors walking around inside as they like to see how their products are being displayed and how the section of the store is organized and such. Usually larger things (like EVs) would be targeted at specific cities / locations around the country, so no guarantees I would even see one in the area.

No, I don’t work for Walmart or Canoo. I just live in Bentonville (and literally less than a couple miles from the home office).