Good morning frens,
Welcum to the first of our daily market go arounds. I will have three separate sections each day, the news, the watch listers, and SPY
The news: Ukraine is still alive, the market doesn’t seem to care who wins only that the war ends and that is not likely to happen anytime soon. If some of this bounce is because of hopes for peace those hopes are misplaced but just because we know that doesn’t mean that the market does… Yet. Sometimes something is kinda obviously going to happen but isn’t confirmed yet, those can be called semi priced in events.
JPow is going to be speaking today before open. JPow has always been a calming voice which of course is his job. The market usually listens to what he says and accepts it. JPow will not go on tv and say we’re all fucked inflation bad, he will do what he has to do to walk the line between fighting inflation and growing the economy and market. Expect bullish but watch how spy reacts to see if it isn’t listening to him this time.
A good article from the man everyone loves to hate:
AMC and GME are doing the thing right now and they are doing it moreso than usual, they are affordable and they could have more gas in them even if they don’t run as much today they gather heaps of OI on days like yesterday, but I won’t say the G word. Keep in mind that they are heavily spy correlated and if spy goes down so will they and vice versa. They are both still bad companies with insider selling take gambles for now if your bullish and buy mid term puts if your bearish.
NVDA is not following the rest of the big caps and is near previous resistance, if the market goes down it may lead the fall. It’s gotten buy ratings but still stays red, is a bearish watch for today. Already down a good bit in pre market, might have more room to fall.
Right now SPY is down .32% in pre market. It’s been in a bounce for a week now and I expect that bounce to go to 455 but if you haven’t noticed there’s lots of news right now and news always beats technicals (even double bottoms). Read up on or listen to the JPow talk and see if spy is okay with what he is saying. If it accepts what he says then you should too, don’t fight the direction it chooses.
This is pre JPow talk so a prediction will be made or broken off what the market reacts to him with. That being said I expect a volatile day that could be decided early on, I’m gonna lean red because of the timing of the JPow speech and the lack of a resolution in Ukraine. Watch for those double bottoms and knife buys after the JPow effect does it’s thing.
(I am moving the 9am posting time to 7am because I’ve already realized 9am is after alot of news events actually happen and it gives more time for people to read.)