HankPym's Trading Journal

Trading Journals
91

Wife decided we needed a long weekend away at the beach (see most of the week…), so I was gone until today and missed a lot of this last weeks action. Had a fantastic time and from what I can tell, it was probably not a horrible thing I was gone, as the market just doesn’t want to take a strong position going into FOMC. Today seemed more of the same, although MSFT didn’t want to join the party with the rest of the kids. That made for interesting range trade opportunities.

Only really made 3 trades today: Took a MSFT call off it’s support bounce (once confirmed) and sold near the top. About an hour later went with an SPX call and quickly took profit as it immediately ran up. Was again very busy with work and let the rest run on a trailing stop but that didn’t do anything as it quickly knifed, so just lost some extra gains on that but no biggie. Last play was the beginning of ph with another SPX call off bullish chart and had to average down before I got the pop I was looking for. Took good profits from that and set my stop, only for it to get tagged super quick. Wasn’t happy about that, and saw a much better new entry, so I went back in only to get all the way out after the next 4 1min green candles :pepecelebrate:

Today was 3 for 3 (4 for 4 counting the angry reentry), and on minimal risk with a very tight range, so I feel like it was a great day. Played smart and patient and it paid off well. Will continue to look for support setups like these on days like today when it’s overly quiet. There were other opportunities for sure, but I’m happy with the ones I took.

This week should be very interesting. I’m reluctant to be in anything longer than an hour, just because of how much news can/will affect things right now. Will continue to use AAPL/MSFT/VIX/DXY/HYG/NVDA heavily to see what we’re doing going forward, but news trumps all right now, so I’ll step lightly on chart conviction.

Have a great evening and we’ll get after it again tomorrow!

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92

So we’re at the gates of FOMC and there is a lot of unknowns this go around. The market has been scrambling to price in a 25bps rate increase while keeping a wary eye on the bank situation. That uncertainty brings with it opportunity.

Started the day with a friday SPX call position on a quick confirmation of a daily bottom on SPY and AAPL holding VWAP. Was hopeful that it’d increase in IV as we got closer to the meeting’s finality, but the fact that it was the daily bottom ended up mattering more, and it became profitable fairly quickly, so I took profit within 30mins and then eventually closed the position an hour later very green. This was a very calm, enjoyable ride up, as it never really tested my position value and I had very little to do other than watch the market.

If the first play was my Dr. Jekyll, the second was my Mr. Hyde. :yong: I grabbed a bunch of 0dte SPX calls on a backtest of 3978 during the hour before ph. As I noted in tf, that hour seems to be great for some 0dte shenanigans if you pick the correct direction (and if you’re so inclined). I did, and it quickly became very green. I didn’t show my averaging in and averaging out in callouts (I try not to clutter the position callouts with these quick scalps) but it was a great winner several times over before I finally closed the position on seeing AAPL languish for a while.

It looks like I definitely could have held longer for greater gains, but I’m super happy with what I got out of it. I am not very patient in general when it comes to my positions, and I have to play things my way or I’ll screw it up. I hope some of you more patient people are reaping the rewards of holding through.

Overall, a fairly calm range day that I was able to see my picks work according to what I saw. I’ll keep tabs on the IV for tomorrow and see what we end up looking like going into the meeting’s close tomorrow afternoon.

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93

Well, today was the day. And it definitely didn’t disappoint! :pepecelebrate:

Lot’s of great dd from the group to go through post-play on this, as we tried to work out IV plays leading into JPow’s speech. I was bullish going in, and played some SPX calls early, and then collected IV most of the morning. I rolled to a further position when IV was cracking 100%, and sold about 15mins later (about 45mins before JPow started to speak) for a really big win. I may try the straddle next time, as many saw it working for them well. This felt almost too easy, and should be one of those events that we try to bring new people along with because it’s hard to screw up if you get in at the right time.

Then we got to the speech and the volatility that accompanies it. About 5mins before he started talking, I grabbed a call position and sold on the first candle after he started speaking for really good gains (may be a thing to look for in the future…). I planned to immediately roll them over to a further out position, but it dropped right away, so I waited a hot minute and then got back in at a much better price. Only took about another 5mins or so and I was out with another big winner.

I then made my one bad play on the failed support hold and got stopped out of it pretty quick. But here’s the thing… I was ready for it this time and immediately jumped in puts on the fail and made a chunk (not all) of the losses right back. I’ve tried this a few times and almost every time it’s been a win. If support fails, usually a bigger drop follows. I sold right when it looked like he was done talking. Anyway, glad this one wasn’t all bad and that I can say I’m still learning new tricks.

And likewise, when I sold the put at JPow’s end of talking, I bought into a call position. This was interesting because the increase in SPX was nowhere near the increase in IV after the speech ended, and people realized we were going back up. I made out with huge gains on this quick scalp due to the combined interest + price increases. Very curious if this can be a big play in the future (end of speech move).

Overall, one of my best days ever. Hard to really compare, as we don’t get these events often, but I still feel like I was well prepared for the days action and played things accordingly. I truly hope you all made out well and that we can all discuss what we learned today on tf and these forums so that we can all continue to become better traders.

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94

Just had some bad news that my godkids mom died suddenly. Gonna be out for a while. Take care of each other please… :heart:

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95

Sorry to hear that Hank. Take care.

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96

So today was the perfect example of DON’T PLAY IF YOU CAN’T FOCUS, DUMMY!

I’ve been barely able to trade the last few weeks and I could tell, with the Fed stuff today, I had a very itchy trigger finger and was not taking care of my headspace properly. I was constantly pulled away from my desk, and when I was back, I’d take quick snapshots and make determinations based on much less data than I should have. This is completely on me. The data was there, I just didn’t take the time to review everything well enough. Also, there were multiple opportunities to get out of positions green or very lightly red that I didn’t take because I was gone. I definitely shot myself in the foot, but that’s how it goes. I’ll hopefully be more aware of my work requirements now and not trade if I shouldn’t.

I don’t like not trading, but I like losing money even less. Something to work on until I can spend my time more regularly with you guys again. :cheers:

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97

I really enjoyed this discussion last night, and mentioned that I wish I’d had more availability to discuss some things that have been on my mind. Since I didn’t get to start that conversation there, I’ll start it here. This may get a little wordy, so hopefully you stick with me and have additional insights to lend.

So, I’m a bull with bearish tendencies. I find the current ranged market situation (ironically, not what today is doing at all) fascinating and have been profiting off it quite a bit since my positions are either extremely short term scalps playing what the day shows, or very long term shares/leaps that have been purchased at the end of days that have moved in the opposite direction the whole day(s) from what I’m purchasing/expecting long term.

What is of most interest to me though, is something I’ve mentioned in passing multiple times over the past few months that seems to still be true, and possibly more obvious now than ever: people WANT TO HOPE. They want to believe that things will get better. Just give them a reason to believe and they will. And when they believe en masse, usually that belief finds enough people that then act on that belief to make it become a reality.

The macro data shows that we “should” be in a bear market heading for deep recession, but we keep finding ways to hang on. The markets keep finding HOPE. This doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t be having an ugly recessionary period coming (data is rarely wrong). But maybe the context and weight of the data isn’t exactly correct, or inclusive. Maybe the value of hope isn’t as quantifiable as debt and inflation numbers. If so, we should be able to account for it more than just a fear/greed scale. And not just account for it, but figure out where the hope is being applied, and find ways to profit on it.

So how do I see hope manifested in the market outside the typical (and short sighted) fear/greed scale? Hyped innovation. It’s great that there is battery tech on the horizon that can reduce our need to use rare earth metals, and the potential to mine asteroids will always be intriguing, and who can forget META trying to force us all into The Matrix or AMC’s popcorn deliveries! :kekw: But these don’t move the needle because they can’t be hyped by the layman around the watercooler (or discord channel…). Either they aren’t cool enough, aren’t translatable to neanderthal level discussion (or at least shown to a neanderthal with your phone so they can click buttons and see it work :yong:), or are too far away as not to be any more real than science fiction.

What kind of innovation am I talking about then? Currently, AI. Before that it was EV tech changing how we moved around via TSLA. Before that, Bitcoin/Blockchain dominated many recession discussions, Amazon changed the way everyone shopped, and we had the Iphone. You can keep going back to find innovation that changed the overall market narrative from a bearish tone to a bullish one just by being present. Why these? Because they:

  1. Were available to a majority of people
  2. Were easily hyped
  3. Were perceived (at the time) as being able to lift human existence to a better way of being
  4. Had the 3 previous criteria met at a time when a large enough group of people were searching for a new hope

Looking at the current hyped hope (AI), I find it incredibly interesting how it’s been around for so very long, but it wasn’t until Microsoft put it in everyone’s hands, in the form of ChatGPT, that it dominated the conversation. EV’s have been around since the 1890s, but didn’t really scratch the itch until Elon started marketing them while fuel prices started rocketing. For an innovation to truly be able to become the hope people need in order to look beyond the pessimistic world around us, it has to be prepackaged and marketable NOW.

Now, markets don’t just move because main street gets excited about something either. But they do move when that excitement becomes infectious. News cycles, streaming channels, and water cooler conversations soon move to board meetings discussing how to incorporate these things into their business model (or how to manage the disruption it might cause).

So how do we, as day traders, capitalize on this? Well, in my trading, I went heavy in MSFT and AI at the beginning of January because I saw this starting to manifest itself. I felt that the paradigm was shifting and people were ready to be hyped up about something. I didn’t really discuss this in depth then because, to be honest, I wasn’t sure if I was right. I wasn’t sure if this hope theory of mine was just the bull in me trying to make it true, and I wasn’t sure if the ChatGPT fervor was going to be the next TSLA or the next META.

I’ve sat on this and discussed it with rl mentors for months who seemed to agree with my thoughts, but I think last night, seeing how most of the conversation seemed to get caught up in the data points showing us that markets “should” be doing the opposite of what they’re doing, I felt like I needed to put this in writing and let us all discuss it. I believe this is correct, but am open to being wrong. I just want to understand these mechanisms in a way that allows me (and all of you) to be able to make more informed trades and capitalize when we see opportunities.

Anyway, feel free to discuss your thoughts on this with me here, in tf, or save it for the next DD night. I just want there to be a discussion. :pepepray:

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98

Oof, what a loser that @HankPym guy is! :kekw:

Seriously though, today was probably my worst day of trading results in a long long time (with an asterisk that I’ll explain at the end), so I figured I should make some notes about it and try to see what lessons can be learned.

So, first the primer - I’ve been intentionally not trading SPY/SPX since @Conqueror called us out for overtrading it, and it definitely takes some adjusting back to using the broad market movement as a catalyst/indicator instead of the played ticker. That said, I’ve had almost no bad plays, until today. I’ve given myself time, I’ve been able to use broader sentiment to create narrow trading options that have really paid off well. It’s not as sexy, and definitely not as degenerate (or exciting), but feels so much better and stable. I’m still seeing SPY levels to play intraday, but I’m using them to push through on more focused plays with a higher chance of success. But with the combination of what our fearless leader has been saying, and my own availability to trade being limited at this time, I think figuring this out is incredibly important for me.

This has brought up a new level of problem though: because I’m holding longer and am more relaxed about my position timing, it’s much easier to hold waaaay too long. Today was a bearish day, and the vast majority of my positions are bullish (I have my hedges too of course, just call me the bizarro @TheHouse). It doesn’t make sense to pull the plug on these plays just because of a single red day, and I’ve got plenty of time for the plays to right themselves, but this does expose me to a much higher amount of risk that I’ve been comfortable with for the last 6-7 months. I haven’t been swing trading as much over this time period, and the ones I had been were very tight timewise (earnings play overnight, etc).

So the question seems to be… without overcomplicating my trading methods, how do I lower my risk while allowing for myself to run with 20-30 swings vs a single intraday scalp play? I think the best way to do that is to decrease my position sizes for overnight holds and hedge a bit more on those where I’m exposed across many companies (like the overall AI play, or the bank plays).

I’m going to need to figure out a time of day where I need to start looking to take profits harder and get down to a position size that I’m comfortable carrying days/weeks/months if necessary. Setting up an alarm to trigger, like my others I’ve set in the past, should help me get into the habit. This requires more discipline than my wild west quick trigger trading I’ve grown accustomed and comfortable with, but I’m glad to get a bit uncomfortable as long as I’m learning and growing.

So the asterisk I mentioned at the beginning was regarding the fact that all of the positions I’m down in are calls with significantly far out dates and plenty of time to recapture what was lost today. Even with the NVDA calls meant for an earnings play tomorrow; I had closed my near term stuff early on during the drop and am just holding June or later now.

While on paper today may look pretty bad, it’ll probably end up being fine (possibly by tomorrow). If today was the start of a new trend, then I’m late with this fix and will take the hit, but I won’t get caught that exposed again. :cheers:

99

Welcome to the dilemma I’ve been trying to solve for sometime now myself! And burned at the stake for overplaying when it’s really just swing trading :ok_hand:

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100

It’s definitely a different game entirely! We definitely aren’t doing justice to our regular swing traders with how we address these things. What else can we do better to help people become less degen and more responsible with their plays?

I’m not sure the position system works as well for these either; both because the timing of the original plays don’t show up anymore by the time you are averaging in/out or closing the position, and because they are easily forgotten. I really like the new discord threads for managing this stuff, as it keeps things fresh and updated, but there has to be a way of making the callouts be more clearly separated as scalps vs swings, right?

101

How I’ve been thinking about positioning swings is short/long 90+dte, you can then change your net bear or bull exposure with daily, weekly, or monthly rebalancing. I personally have been trying to allow plays to form so rebalancing once a week if needed, but keeping an eye on them daily. If I’m net short and the market is going against me ill almost overtrade the upside move in SPX 0dte scalps (small positions), or look for the winners of the run like our most recent bullish winner PLTR. It doesn’t take a lot of dollars to hedge those longer contracts. My long/short swings are 100% spreads as they are more forgiving to hold during range bound or choppy environments. The goal is to have both your long and short side go in range and create a nice convex positions. I have really like managing my port this way, it has cut down on relying on scalping too much and forces you to look at things from a bit of a longer point of view which I think is healthy. Eventually Id like to have exposure in a few more sectors, but I think we need a leading narrative to confirm what sectors money will flow in and out of. This is absolutely still a work in progress and always will be but I hope the conversation helps.

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102

It doesn’t take a lot of dollars to hedge those longer contracts.

I’ve noticed this, and it makes for a much more agile account with the same amount of funding!

I love the idea of keeping the focus of the trade further out, even as you’re trading closer dates on scalps as well. I’ve been watching what you’ve been doing, and it honestly was what made me so comfortable just switching tactics so drastically. This is a lot more like how I manage my retirement accounts, and it really isn’t a bad idea to do that here, but with maybe more aggressive positions (as you’ve modeled).

I’ll probably need to start adding some SPX intraday scalping back in, as it’s too hard to find parallel runners on the fly when SPY starts moving hard. The cold-turkey was always going to be a temporary thing to help me adjust to not relying on it so much.

Great insights!

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103

I mean I don’t think that’s an issue with the position system at all. It’s more so the person making the callouts. With discord threads you should have a bit of blurb on why you took the trade. I usually did that sort of thing. If you reference the last bit AEHR DD I would update the thread with news that came out and kinda make it a thread for that particular “play” even if it spanned multiple trades. It’s just a bit more intensive on the person making the callouts and all that. As for the mechanics of how to go about managing those longer plays House is leading the direction I was going. Without getting into selling contracts you’re somewhat limited with single leg option trades. When I get back to full time I’ll probably be doing a mixture of what’s being referenced here with some contract selling as well. For example: buying a call on a trade I’m long term bullish on and if I foresee or am witnessing a movement in the short term going against me selling that same call or an earlier one against my original one to essentially “lock” the profits of that trade for that moment. Then evaluating if it’s worth it to either buy the call back after it drops in value (so closing the short call) or if it’s worth it to just open a new long call position (buy to open) at a different strike price or exp date. Holi was doing this for a bit and there’s some mechanics I know I’ll have to look into but I like the way of kinda locking in some profits but not fully exiting the trade.

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104

Of course! Anytime, I have been spending a lot of my free time trying to understand these strategies and have come across a few good resources you may find interesting starting with this podcast I have listened to a handful of times. Content from Corey Hoffstien (CIO- Newfound research) is always great and Jason Buck (CIO- Mutiny Funds) dives into this long/short strategies origin, how Ray Dalio uses it and how he uses it today with option strategies. If you end up watching I would love to hear your thoughts!

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105

I’d still like to see a clearer delineation of shorter duration vs longer duration trades, and have the charts that show everyone’s positions be shown, even if they were 3 months ago. Not sure how that would work, or if it even makes sense to do that, but it’d give better context what what people are saying/doing in their callouts. This also plays nicer with your example as the buy back might be days later…

Anyway, lots to chew on here!

106

I’ll check it out later tonight and will try to collect my thoughts on it and share them here. Always appreciate informed opinions on better/smarter ways to trade, and even if I don’t end up implementing them, those perspectives usually add something to my own. Thanks again!

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107

Bruh, how did I not hear about this podcast before now?!?

Absolutely fantastic and riveting (for trading nerds) hour. I’m possibly more into this than I normally would be just because it was talking about exactly what I’ve been trying to address myself right now, but honestly it’s amazing info. I made some notes regarding some of the thoughts brought up and how it’d be implemented with my own trading style, but I’m probably going to have to listen to this again once I let this sink in as I’m certain there was more detail that’d help me further refine my own way to manage my portfolio.

Really appreciate you sharing this with me and everyone else and I hope others get the hype and give this the full listen. It’d be wonderful for us to actually take some time at our weekly discussions to discuss some of these ideas with multiple people who have spent some time thinking about this in-depth beforehand. :cheers:

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108

I had a similar reaction the first time I watched it! Super stoked you enjoyed it. Here is another great one here I know you will enjoy, somewhat repetitive but I think he goes into a little bit more depth. I dont know who the hosts are but they have some great people on their show. Michael Green was on recently and runs a similar strategy. Show Us Your Portfolio: Jason Buck - YouTube Maybe you to build out the bull side, I’ll work on the bear side, and <@373882275429089290> can dictate rebalancing lol Jk! Or am I? <:Smirk:975239779400683520>

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109

I owe myself to write something in my journal about yesterday and today while it’s still fresh, but after I’ve had some time to process.

So, looking back at my post just 3 days ago, I stayed committed to my thesis even when it was pulling me down and looked like maybe it wasn’t going to work out the way I’d expected. I didn’t double down as much as I’d done in the past, which was absolutely smart. I know now that a lot of the reason I did that level of averaging was for the mental/emotional high it gives to see your positions green at the end of the day. But it’s not always (usually) the smartest thing to do as it exposes you to much more risk. I had good entries on positions I believed in and had time to wait for it to work out. That was enough. This is likely something I’ll continue to struggle with as I try to be a much better trader and work out my own issues that have held me back in the past, but I love that I can see the progress.

I don’t want to talk about profits, but about approach. The current approach we have to these plays is a winner. We may get some wrong (likely) but we are constantly making that happen less often and for smaller losses.

The new discord threads along with the position system have been a godsend in helping me to stay on target. All of us reinforcing what is working and shooting down what is not or finished and doing it in a way that keeps us all accountable to each other is what will help us all rise together. There will be many more opportunities that present themselves. We’ve just barely scratched the surface and already, for a lot of us, it’s been the most profitable trading period we’ve had. I just want to thank @Conqueror again for taking the time and energy to make this a reality. Without that work, what we’re doing now wouldn’t be possible.

As discussed earlier here with @Navi and @TheHouse, I plan to work out better hedge plays to balance out my way of trading. I’ve been taking notes and working out what that will look like, but am not there yet. I need to get there soon, as these individual runs don’t last forever.

As I stated in the AI thread, I’ve moved each position to longer dated calls. The thesis is a long term play, and I’m going to play it that way. Continue to take profit on a daily basis, and will get back in to positions on days/weeks where things take a breather/reverse. I’ll still play 0dte SPX calls when it’s warranted (and I have the time/energy to focus on it), but it’s no longer the focus. I suspect that in the end, it’ll end up making all of my plays more profitable as well just because I’ll be more picky about when I’m playing and why. Either way, I expect lots more fun for all of us! :pepecelebrate:

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110

I apologize that I haven’t been around to mix it up with all y’all of late. I’m sure you’re all doing just fine without me, but I’m just going to be keeping some longer term plays out there and everything else is getting closed this week. I’ve got a mix of work busyness and lots of family vacations occupying me and I want to keep my plays reflecting my involvement. My sentiment hasn’t changed, I still think we’re just getting started with a lot of these that I’m closing. I just want to be more responsible in my trades as I shift from micromanaging positions to long holds, so September or later for now is all I’ll be doing until the summer shenanigans lighten up. :cheers:

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